LCD HDTV forecast from HD Beat
By Kevin C. Tofel 
posted Sep 30th 2005 9:32AM
posted Sep 30th 2005 9:32AM
Aside from the HD-DVD / Blu-Ray wars and the DTV legislation, the only stories I'm getting tired of reading are on the LCD TV industry. Why? The forecasts are different depending on who you ask. Sure, I don't expect them to be identical, but they're all over the place. One day we hear LCD demand is huge and that major players are investing tons of moolah in new production facilities. The next day we hear there is an anticipated glut due to dropping demand.Today, we swing back to the other side as iSuppli raised their forecast for the market. The expected compound annual growth rate in LCD sales is up to 47.2% through 2009. So what the heck gives? I have an Economics degree with a statistics background, but I'm not even going to use that; let me give you my predictions. You can provide yours or dispute mine in the comments.
- LCD televisions will continue to sell like mad.
- Each
year's LCD TV sales will beat the prior year's by over 50% through 2008
due to increased production investment in 2005 and 2006.
- Prices will continue to drop like rain in a monsoon.
- By 2007, non-electronics stores such as Wal-Mart and Target will sell more LCD TVs than tradional electronics retailers.
- By 2009, at least 40% of all U.S. households will own at least one LCD TV set and 10% will own more than one.
- High-def DVDs and LCD sales will create demand for a portable high-def player with a non-LCD screen by 2007.
- Demand for LCDs will wane and begin to drop by 2009 in favor of newer display technologies like OLED and SED, which will become affordable.
- All of the industry forecasters will need new jobs by 2008 due to the blogosphere.
Sounds dead on to me.
I certainly agree with you that the forecasters will need new jobs! As far as the growth of LCD, I happen to think that SED is going to become the cat's meow before 2009...Once people have a chance to see how incredible the picture is as soon as early 2006, all the manufacturers will start to build 'em quickly! The fact is, the reason LCD's have taken off to such a degree, is because:
1. inexpensive in smaller sizes, and
2. most buyers are novices
let me explain...in reference to #2, very few people will argue with the fact that as it stands now, plasma is still king. unfortunately, most novices buy into the hype that the shelf life of a plasma is limited...unfortunately, most of these people don't stop to think about what exactly does limited mean...on average, plasmas are rated to last upwards of 50,000 hours, with a slight chance of the screen darkening a bit after 30,000 hours...even if you watch t.v. for 10 hours a day, that's approx. 3600 hours a year...that's it! most people won't have their plasmas in 7 years, let alone 10 or 12! Besides, by the time you decide to replace the set, they are going to be so freakin' cheap! As far as #1 is concerned, many people want these sets for the spare room, the deck, the bathroom, etc. etc..in those situations, lcd is light, relatively inexpensive (up to 20 inches of course). At the end of the day however, their are still too many faults with the technology. True videophiles, don't own 'em, cause they just don't do black levels the way they should! Once people have a chance to sink their teeth into the SED technology, they will enjoy the jaw-dropping experience!