Why HD DVD will prevail: my opinion
By Matt Burns 
posted Apr 19th 2006 1:04PM
posted Apr 19th 2006 1:04PM
NOTE: This is my opinion and is not necessarily the same of
the rest of HD Beat. The race has started and Toshiba's HD DVD is a head start and I believe that this format will prevail. I am basing this off of three major advantages that I can see from the perspective of a HDTV salesmen. My profession allows me to have a unique view of the overall situation; many of our readers are also in sales so I am sure that they can relate to these points.
Take some time and read over this. I am sure that some of these points you have not thought about.
1. Price
Who is going to buy a HD DVD player right of the bat? Is it going to be current HDTV owners that are educated? No, most of you said you were waiting. Then it is going to be "Mom and Pop" or "Gram and Gramps" when they buy their first HDTVs. Sure, some of us are going to run out and buy a HD DVD player but a lot of ordinary people are going to buy one thanks to salesmen and the process we call "attaching."This practice is found everywhere. Car dealerships "attach" paint sealers and shoe salesmen suggesting leather cleaner. It is everywhere. Let me tell you though that it is hard enough to attach a quality sound system to HDTVs these days let alone a $1,000 Blu-Ray player; but a $500 HD DVD that is half the price is a lot easier. Don't hate me for this. It is just a product of the system. Most salesmen are tracked on almost everything they do with the goal of increasing "productivity."
Check this out: "When you buy the HDTV I can give you 10% off the player plus it comes with a HDMI cable that we sell for around a $100. (I know...expensive cable but bare with me) Plus, this player will make your normal DVDs look a bit better. A normal DVD player for a HDTV is around 100 bucks but this new one will play most of the new discs that are coming out that will look amazing on your new HDTV. Let me show you the difference." Listen to me, this is going to be said thousands of times accouse the country by many HDTV salesmen. It is an easier sale. I am sorry if this offends some of you but this is how it works.
This $500 HD DVD player does nearly the same thing that the Blu-Ray player does but for half the price. Plus, and more importantly, the average customer knows what a HD DVD player is.
2. Perception.
People come into my store to buy a HDTV. I then attempt to sell them one but have to at least touch on at least five acronyms. HDTV, DLP, LCD, SXRD and resolutions. (Ok...the last is not an acronym but you get the point.) Trust me, and the rest of the HDTV sales industry can chime in, I try to reduce this "tech talk" to a bare minimum. It just confuses 90% of people and gets them frustrated. But people know what a DVD is and most know what HD is. So therefore most people can put together what a HD DVD is.Now this may seem a bit silly to some people but then you must not work in sales but customers are stupid. That is a clear as I can put it. But a HD DVD is something that is not hard to wrap your head around and they have been hearing about it for awhile. Plus, when you tell them about it for the first time, they can understand it. Blu-Ray just adds yet another thing that salesmen has to explain and, this is the hard part, people have to understand.
3. Head start
Was the XBOX better then the PS2? Oh, sure. It was a better built machine with a lot more power but the PS2 had a huge head start. Part of this was that it could play the PS1 games. By the time that the XBOX was available, the PS2 had dropped in price and people knew what it was.The same thing is going to happen with HD DVD. Blu-Ray is better technology and yes, but HD DVD's head start is going to help Toshiba's camp a lot. People are going to know what it is and are going to be comfortable with it. It takes the average Joe a few trips to Best Buy and Circuit City to "learn" enough before they are going to buy. Some will wait for the Blu-Ray player but then the price will drive them to the one they already know what it is.
Keep in mind that these are simply my opinions that are based on my experience in this industry. I hope that I am wrong 'cause Blu-Ray is a better technology but so was Beta.
I second that motion!
We will see, but from my POV a $500 HD DVD player seems way more appealing than a $1000 Blu Ray player. Also, your point about the name really makes a lot of sense. Its so easy to understand.
I am sorry Matt, but all three of those don't compare to the one thing that Blu-Ray will have; Selection of movies.
What good are those 3 when only one manufacturer( RCA player is really a Toshiba) is making the players and only 3 studios are providing movies?
This assumes of course that my prediction that Blu-Ray will have alot more movies than HD-DVD. We won't know this until Blu-Ray is relased.
1: Price
This is irrelevant except to the early adopters. Prices will also go down over time until the difference is negligable ... until then next gen. DVD penetration will be minimal anyways. You're also forgetting about the PS3 which will be a BR player and then some ... for about the same pric as that Toshiba. There is no HD-DVD console trojan horse.
2: Perception
Yes, HDDVD makes more sense than Blu-Ray to the consumer. Then again, it makes HD-DVD sound like DVD 1.5 whereas BR is a unique format that is truly next generation. Consider "HD Radio" vs. XM or Sirius Satellite Radio ... which one sounds like the better technology? What im saying is that perception can go many ways. You're simplfying it too much. And, the marketing push hasn't even started.
3: Head Start
Your PS2 vs. XBOX analogy is all wrong. PS2 came out on top for many, many reasons. If you think the first to market advantage was the only thing going for you should do some research on another system that was ahead of its time: the Dreamcast.
4: The PC Market
Remember these guys? They use optical media too. How many PCs are sold on a daily basis. Which format has more support?
You forgot to mention perhaps the most important reason, it is worse that Blu-ray. We have a common problem of accepting the worst solution, because it is the fastest/cheapest/easiest. Blu-Ray has much more potential...not HD-DVD.
In my opinion.
Good points. But there is a downside to the name HD DVD too. Some people may get that confused with an upconverting DVD player. A few months ago I actually had an argument with a friend of mine who is usually a relatively informed tech buyer. Apparently the salesman (at Best Buy of course) had somehow put it in his head that his new upconverting DVD player was an HD DVD player. I knew they were not out yet so I told him it was not. I had a battle explaining the difference to him. If he had trouble understanding it, I'd hate to think how difficult it would be for my mom.
#4... You couldn't be more wrong about price... Pricing is EVERYTHING! Why does Walmart even exist? PRICE! Also... no one has any idea what the PS3 will cost... most likely it will be much more than $500.00... also... I am 29... try to convince my parents (50's) to buy a PS3 instead of a standalone DVD player because they can also play $65.00 games on it... The PS3 will only have a negative effect on the Blu-Ray format... Sony HAS to price the PS3 under $800... if they don't it will bomb... now... if the PS3 is $600.00 try to convince Samsung, etc to keep making Blu-Ray players that cost $1000... pretty soon Sony will be the only HW manufacturer making Blu-Ray drives (UMD anyone?)
Also... The preception is also huge... we are talking about the average consumer here... they are who will decide who wins the format war... not the early adopters and people who can spend a grand on a dvd player. The name, although it seems silly, will have a big impact on the perception of people and HD-DVD is alot easier to understand than Blu-Ray (which has nothing denoting that it has anything to do with DVD's or movies)...
THE ONLY REASON PS2 came out on top was the PS1... thats it... which in reality boils down to software/content... if you bought a PS2 who had a TON of content to use on it already... the XBOX didn't have that advantage... neight did the Dreamcast...
The PC market is also irrelivant when it comes to HD-DVD... Do we watch movies on Iomega REV drives attached to our TV? NO... I really think that Blu-Ray will not win the HD movie format war... HD-DVD will and Blu-Ray will be adopted for mass data storage... that is or couse if it ever does prove to be able to hold 100GB on a disc.
Blu-Ray only has a single upside (storage capacity) and right now it isn't even measurable... HD-DVD is capable of doing everything Blu-Ray is right now... and it costs less, is easier to produce, and all around will just make more sense to the average consumer. Sorry Sony... you missed the mark... again...
What about the one big advantage that Blu-Ray has? The PS3. Chances are, this christmas the PS3 will be the hot ticket item. That will give Blu-Ray an in home presence at a time when mostly early adopters would be buying.
Uhm no one has mentioned PS3 yet. THE hottest thing that is coming out for XMAS. Over 1 million are scheduled to be shipped in time for XMAS. I'm pretty sure HD-DVD will not be shipping anywhere near that many through all of 2007. And by the end of Q1 2007 there will be MILLIONS of PS3's all with Blu-Ray drives.
Tipster, you have some valid points.
First off most people won’t pay close enough attention to the number of titles currently available, especially if they are talked into attaching it with their new HDTV. Secondly, the PS3 will be a big help for households that play games, yes I know it's a huge number, but not for the average Joe/Jane. The Gaming console in the kid’s room makes up a major portion of the gaming market.
Here is a scenario that will apply to most average consumers. If My Mother and Father were faced with the choice of a $500 PS3 that does lots of things they won't use and plays HD Movies, A $1000 Blu-Ray player that just plays HD movies (what they want), or a $500 HD-DVD Player that only plays movies (again what they want) They are going to go with the HD-DVD Player. Why? Because even though the PS3 does more, they don't want all that other stuff to confuse them. Those of us that frequent AV and Tech sites are the ones who like screwing with cables, settings, and new technology. The average Mom and Pop consumer wants it simple and wants it cheap.
If Blu-Ray brings Blu-Ray recorders to market quickly (as looks to be the case) then HD-DVD will stall out quickly. Only if HD-DVD can get recorders to market ahead of Blu-Ray and at much lower equipment and media prices because of the smaller storage size (and thus recording time) could HD-DVD hope to win or even stay afloat.
Blu-Ray has been making recorders for over 2 years now (though not BD-ROM compatible).
#9 Let not forget though... if HD-DVD has the edge by Christmas the fact that it has a Blu-Ray drive will mean NOTHING!
Also.. #6 you are proving the point of this column... Sales people right now are trying to push upconverting DVD players on people who buy HDTVs just because they are more expensive than your $25 DVD player... Now that they have the HOT new HD-DVD player technology they will be that much more excited about pushing that on the customer...
Really... we are not going to see much from the Blu-Ray camp until the PS3 is released... and that isn't going to be until November... and if there are players out before then and the early adopters buy them then none of them will buy a PS3... so If I am an early adopter don't I just wait until November to get the cheaper Blu-Ray player in the PS3 thus making the fact that players from other manufacturers will be out in June?? The PS3 WILL kill the Blu-Ray format!
PS3 won't kill BD, that's absurd. The PS2 was released when DVD was relatively new, and the PS2 didn't kill expensive DVD players. Does a Toyota Corolla kill Lexus? For lunch today I paid $10 for a gourmet hamburger - I don't see McDonalds killing off that restaurant anytime soon. The fact is, there's room in the market for multiple players at multiple price points. That has always been the case. Pioneer is releasing a $1800 player. Sony and Samsung is releasing $1000 players. You don't see Pioneer saying "Oh crap, there are players out there cheaper than us, we might as well give up."
The price difference between BD and HD DVD players is temporary. Eventually they'll equalize, and I don't think it'll take that long. The format war will not be won or lost in the first three months.
It still comes down to software. BD has much more studio support right now than HD DVD. Just look at how many HD DVD launch titles there are, and compare that to how many BD titles will be available. The difference is astounding. I know which format I'd want...
Do you really think that the onslaught that Sony will be pulling out for the PS3 will not dominate whatever HD-DVD has done prior? I'm sure the all out blitz will start in June-August for the PS3. With the movie studios clearly behind Blu-Ray, it's HD-DVD which will have the catching up to do. I didn't see any spectacular listing of content in either camp in the next few months. Sky Captain? Please. Get us some good films in HD and the winner will sort itself out quickly.
Apple and Dell are both going with Blu-Ray. Apple is getting LOTS of press these days and will only further the cause. Big article by Dell saying they won't bow to Wintel recently and confirmed their Blu-Ray camp status.
XBox 360 still off to a slow start and will offer HD-DVD addon at some point for some unseen amount of money. I also read the games will not be on HD-DVD, so I'm not sure why even offer an addon.
E3 is only weeks away and we'll see where Sony stands after E3 and all the PS3 announcements.
hmm.
PS3 w/blu-ray is a better bang for the buck.
HD-DVD gets one scratch in it and its a goner.
Blu-ray specifically has a superior ruggedized and far more expensive coating to mitigate scratch issues.
You are right on one point, i see HD-DVD as a walmart kind of item, and i see Blu-ray as the higher end where the disposable income (money) for HD screens, equipment and content actually is anyhow.
#12... How many people make a player that plays UMDs???? Look at moblie DVD players.. that is the perfect market for something like a portable UMD player... but you don't see any manufacturers making UMD players... why... because the PSP does MUCH more than a portable DVD player and it plays UMD movies... PS3 will be no different... over time people WILL stop making hardware that cannot compete with the PS3... they will migrate to the more profitable HD-DVD medium where the market will be alot more fair.
Also... studio support right now mean nothing... if HD-DVDs start to sell well you will see TONS of studios start making HD-DVDs... especially if they sell for $29.00 as opposed to $19.00... it WONT cost them 10 bucks more to have an HD-DVD produced... there will be alot of money to be made in HD-DVDs if the players start to sell well... and when there is money to be made movie studios alliances to an HD disc format will be thrown out of the window.
Also... when do you think the price will equalize? It will take much longer than a few months... if the price of the Blu-Ray player can go do so can the price of the HD-DVD player... when it costs 50% less right out of the gate it will take a lot of time for the price to equalize...
Also... I am not saying that there isn't room more multiple price level players... but that doesn't help Blu-Ray win this format war... it will only hurt them... costing twice as much for the same value to the consumer isn't a good thing at all. And the fact that ALL the stand alone players WILL cost more than the PS3 is a BAD thing no matter how you look at it!
Also... I have an XBox 360... and an XBox and a PlayStation 2... guess what I watch DVDs on?? My Samsung upconverting DVD player... WHY?? Because all the other 3 devices I can play DVDs on ARE TOO LOUD! I hope the PS3 run silent! If it doesn't I will probably have to buy a stand alone player that will play an next gen DVD format... most likely that will be the HD-DVD player... since the PS3 is going to cost me almost a grand!
The decidign factor for hte consumer is when the sales guy takes them to the DVD movie isile to help them find some mives to buy with their purchase. If HD-DVD is only a quater of an asile and Blu-ray has enough to fill two isiles then they will buy the blu-ray player.
Not enough titles is what killed off mini-disc, Digital Cassete, SACD etc. etc.
1. Price
Irrelevant, if comparing initial prices. This will be a race to the $100 player (for the public). HD-DVD might get there first, but who knows.
2. Perception
Tipster:
“Yes, HDDVD makes more sense than Blu-Ray to the consumer.”
“What I’m saying is that perception can go many ways.”
Yes indeed perception can go many ways. And I think most of the non-tech public thinks alike (my perception). I think the public will associate HDDVD for the most part based on the name alone. We’ll see. Did D-VHS sound like VHS 1.5 to you too?
“Consider "HD Radio" vs. XM or Sirius Satellite Radio ... which one sounds like the better technology”
HD Radio “sounds” like better tech to me (my perception). … Someone hears the very mention of satellite and may think that’s crap, because they can’t even get satellite at home, so that may not work for them. There’s that perception thing again. These shouldn’t be compared since HD Radio is free after the equipment costs and is very rarely installed in new vehicles like it’s satellite counterparts. True the variety isn’t there, but you get what you (don’t) pay for.
3. Head Start
True DC was out first, but it REALLY shot itself in the foot by not having a DVD player, IMO. Also, the PS1 was riding high in 2000, so a lot people waited the arrival of the PS2 and all it’s promises (and slept on the DC). Why not wait to get a 2 for 1 with a game console and movie player? “Headstart is key” is irrelevant, since the time different between the two rival formats is not a year or so, but a matter of weeks. Also, the PS3 will be the only nextgen console with a nextgen player built-in (please correct me if I’m wrong). BR will saturate the market in terms of number of players.
I’m doubting every PS3 owner (or even half of them) will be playing their system on a HDTV (with HD cables), so to them a movie is a movie… and if said movie can be shared, downloaded, borrowed and copied (ahem, DVD) then I don’t see them buying too much software. To them, the BR player may seems like a bonus that they may never get to fully appreciate.
4: The PC Market
I’m that guy that you’re talking about. But this will depend on price of blank media and drives for me.
5. Content
Everyone and their momma knows Sony (and it’s studios) will never(?) release a movie on HD-DVD. So here’s how it goes.. If HD-DVD does catch on with the public (and hopefully the movie studios see this and release titles), and those Sony fan boys know that the PS3 will catch on.. both formats will be around for quite some time, for the simple fact that you won’t be able to get those Sony movies in any other format if nothing else.
Those who mentioned a Blu-Ray "edge" for PCs have to rethink that. Data storage is not what matters most--its cost, availability, and simplicity.
Microsoft isn't including licensing for Blu-Ray in Windows Vista. Consider what this means. It means that PC manufacturers will have to acquire licensing for BR drives SEPARATELY if they want to put BR drives in their PCs. This inflates costs. It also means that most mainstream manufacturers are going to eschew Blu-Ray for HDDVD.
If a new PC ships with an HD-DVD drive, then a consumer will have to actively change that drive for a BR drive. This requires more money and technical know-how. Unless a BR drive is shipped in a PC, 80% of PC consumers will not opt for it. The tech-savvy who want BR will purchase the drive and separate software to utilize it--a meager portion of the market.
And since burning DVDs is all the rage, and there is an HD-DVD drive in most new computers from most Big Box stores and suppliers (sans Sony), then most people are going to opt for the HD-DVD player for themselves and grandma.
T Vizzl: "Everyone and their momma knows Sony (and it’s studios) will never(?) release a movie on HD-DVD. "
They sell movies on VHS don't they?? Sony is around to make money... if HD-DVD is much more popular than Blu-Ray you WILL see Sony movies on HD-DVD.
Tired of all the Microsoft hd-dvd propaganda
Its not which cost more or less as everyone knows cost of technology goes down. How many people here have to upgrade every year because of microsoft? It should be which media has more potential by the amount of storage it can handle
^Do you really believe that HD DVD take take over in 8 months? The DVD took years, and its only competiton was VHS.
Now, for the original post:
1. HD DVD's price lead is a reality, and it may have an effect. However I don't believe that non-educated people will be buying these players just yet. Only the educated people who AREN'T waiting. That's a really small segment of the market. I doubt we'll see much of a price drop by Q4. Remember that perception goes further than the name, a lot of people equate price with quality. I don't think price is going to stop the early adopters, they seem to have made their decision. And many HD owners have money to spare.
2. I've thought over this one... (last year, before we had any prices) and I'm not sure it's true. The fact is the average consumer doesn't know what EITHER is. If you asked a random person on the street to name a type of disc (sounds like family feud) I doubt HD DVD or Blu-Ray would come up, unless that person is a nerd. Now, when you GIVE the name to that same non-nerdy person, they will get an idea, but probably the wrong idea.
ex. Nerd: "Tell me what an HD DVD is."
Regular person (response): "It's a DVD that plays HD."
That's WRONG. That person expects that disc to play in their [SD] DVD player in HD. (Heck, just a year ago I thought I could get progressive scan on composite.) The fact is DVD, HD DVD, and Blu-Ray are all completly different technologies. The salesperson will have to explain the differences. If they are even mildly familiar with the formats, the explanation should go like this...
Salesperson: "Well, neither of these discs will play in your old DVD player, but both players will play your old DVDs. Blu-Ray and HD DVD don't work on each other. This HD DVD player costs less, but Blu-Ray has more movies available."
From your post: "this new one will play most of the new discs that are coming out"
That's not true. Blu-Ray supports two of the three major HD DVD providers, and also has many more exclusive companies.
Basically, I think it's up to the media. I've seen plently of XM vs. Sirius stories on the news, although they're back-pocket stories and a bit out-of-date. There's already been an HD DVD vs. Blu-Ray story on FOX Chicago (my news of choice) and that was before the prices were announced. It seemed balanced. However, I predict a bit of spin will come into play. NBC will be lean HD DVD (on account of Universal) and FOX and ABC will lean Blu-Ray. We'll see how it plays out, but I don't forsee any major successes for at least 2 years.
3. A head start of 3-4 months on a niche product won't be too great. Playstation 2 won because it had over a YEAR of a head start, with tons of hype from the PS1 community. It was heavily anticipated by a MAJOR fanbase, where as the HD community is much smaller. Also, people had grown into the PS franchises, but nobody knew what to expect from XBOX. That turned around with Halo, etc. and that's why 360 is doing so well.
I don't think there will be a winner for a few years. SD-only people will not buy the product. That leaves about 10% of homes. Half of those don't watch HD at all. 5%. Half of them are waiting it out. 2.5%. And I think that's generous. 2.5% of homes are looking into HD discs. By the time HD is strong enough in the marketplace, Blu-Raywill have resolved its issues (I know there are issues. This is because the format is being rushed.) and be the CLEAR dominant format. Also at that time, the price will likely have fallen to match HD DVD. Blu-Ray, if given the time, can win. I hope it does.
I am already sick of having to buy the same movies over and over (VHS, LD, DVD) just to get the latest quality experience. I would like to see both formats (for movie viewing) fail after a short time in favor of network delivery options such as on-demand items that can be saved to PVR.
I am likely to just order more HD movie networks and try to "vote" for network delivery with my subscriptions, rather than invest in yet another round of re-released content. At least then maybe my cable company will have some more cash to upgrade their network pipes. I figure $500+ that I would have spent on an HD-DVD or BlueRay device will go a long ways to increase my access to HD content via cable.
Sure I won't own a copy of the content, but I never really did, since every time a better version of a movie is re-released on some new form of physical media, I have to pay full price again or watch the old out-of-date version. At least they could give us some sort of DVD trade-in discount for upgrading...
#21... I think your right... I watch plenty of HD movies right now... on Showtime HD, HDNet Movies, Universal HD, and HBO HD... If I had a choice I would MUCH rather have more HD content on my DirecTV setup... I have seen Dune in HD like 20 times in the last couple of months... I would much rather watch Dune in HD than any of the release titles we have heard about for either HD-DVD or Blu-Ray.
The PS3 has a "next-gen" format DVD player but lets not forget about the deal that Microsoft has in the works with DirectTV on the XBOX 360... maybe Microsoft is already banking on the network delivery model.
Also... does anyone know if NEW movie releases are being released in HD-DVD right now? Like are the movies that are coming out every Tuesday going to have HD-DVD counter parts? If not why would anyone want to invest in this NEW technology just to watch OLD movies in HD?
#14: I don't see what UMD has to do with BD or HD DVD. UMD is a gaming format, first and formost. As a movie format it's hobbled by lower resolution and a player with a smaller screen size than competing portable DVD players out there. DVD has the advantage that it can be played in normal players AND portable players. Frankly, UMD as a movie format is, and always was, a non-starter. Studios only supported it at first because they saw a proprietary system that would be hard to pirate. But as a method of distributing games, UMD is great.
But we're not here to talk about UMD, and frankly I don't see any parallels between UMD and HD DVD or BD.
You're argument about tons of studios making movies available on HD DVD is specious. Of course they would! The same is true of BD! The studios will flock to whatever format does better. That's a given. The question is what format will that be? And with support from more consumer electronics firms, more computer firms, and more Hollywood studios, BD has the definite edge.
One year from now the format war will still be in full swing. The way things are going now, you'll see a ton of BD players from many manufacturers, while only a few HD DVD players. There will be a ton of movies on BD, and only a little on HD DVD. What format will the consumer choose? BD.
The easy solution is to have a HD DVD/Blu Ray player. The formats "do" the same thing - show movies in HD. I don't think Joe Sixpack is going to care all that much if it's a blu ray or HD-DVD format. They just want the content. Without a player capabale of both formats it will probably not catch on.
This may be more like DVD+R vs DVD-R than VHS vs Beta. With DVD burning, eventually the hardware manufacturers straightened it out. Then the consumers snapped it up and made it mainstream.
I haven't read all the comments yet but wanted to point out something. When in 7 months time the playstation 3 does launch wouldn't that make for an even more lucrative attachment?
"While you're getting this maybe you should check out the latest in high definition gaming, oh and it even comes with a blu ray player for (1/3, 1/2?) the price of a standalone bluray."
Throw a kid card or two and your set right? I don't understand why people are so dismissive of the playstation 3 being blurays trojan horse, it's almost as if they've forgoten how sony put millions of then scarce dvd players in peoples homes in 2001 for a reasonable price. I honestly think the same thing will happen with blu ray.
On a side note it was a good read, thanks for the article.
1) The pricing for movies in both formats will be about the same, so the only difference will be the players. The difference in pricing isn't because HD-DVD players are cheaper to produce than Blu-ray players, if you take a look at the photos of the internals that have surfaced on the net it's clear that the parts alone for the HD-A1 cost quite a bit more than $500. The reason Toshiba decided to sell it so cheap is simply because they didn't really have a choice, they've got less hardware support, less studio support, less capacity, so the only way to differentiate themselves from Blu-ray was to sell the player cheaper. It's obvious that they're trying to establish themselves as the cheaper alternative, but there really is no reason that Blu-ray can't lower their prices as well after selling their first players to the early adopters and I'm sure they will when they feel they need to.
2) The HD-DVD name is both positive and negative. It's positive because many are familiar with the term DVD, but it somewhat cheapens the product as DVD isn't really considered something premium anymore. Another problem with the name HD-DVD is that some might get confused into thinking the movies will play in their standard DVD players, so people are bound to get upset when they buy these movies and they don't work (unless the movie is a hybrid). Also, I don't think it will be too hard to explain to people that Blu-ray is yet another high-definition DVD format.
3) The only meaningful way to measure the first mover advantage is in units sold and as the first HD-DVD players will be in limited supply (about 30,000 units in the first 3 months according to Toshiba themselves) I doubt they will have time to build up any significant lead before Blu-ray launches this summer. Also, even if they were to produce this player in greater quantities it still wouldn't be of interest to general consumers with the long (30-45 seconds) boot and load times and the first generation problems that need to be worked out. I personally don't think anything that happens before Toshiba launches their second generation player later this year will matter much.
-Sony Has the huge MGM library plus Columbia/Tristar.
-They've got Fox Exclusives.
-The PS3 alone will bring more attention to Blu ray than Toshiba can muster for HD DVD
-PS3 will be in the same price range of an HD DVD player
-The HD DVD is a slightly inferior product when compared to Blu Ray
-Sony is pomising full 1080p support through HDMI
Jason:
"They sell movies on VHS don't they?? Sony is around to make money... if HD-DVD is much more popular than Blu-Ray you WILL see Sony movies on HD-DVD."
No sh*t... I guess that's why Sony has finally gotten around to native MP3 support on their MP3/MiniDisc players. Sure they'll come around because they want to make money.. but it'll be a LOOOOOOONNNNNNNGGGGGGGG time coming before they do.
"The same thing is going to happen with HD DVD. Blu-Ray is better technology and yes, but HD DVD's head start is going to help Toshiba's camp a lot. People are going to know what it is and are going to be comfortable with it. It takes the average Joe a few trips to Best Buy and Circuit City to "learn" enough before they are going to buy. Some will wait for the Blu-Ray player but then the price will drive them to the one they already know what it is."
K,k kay! Playstation had advantage over Microsoft because they came out 1 YEAR before they did. HD-DVD has NO advantage because they are coming out only 1 MONTH before Blu-Ray. Know your differences smart ass. And before you go all technical on BLu-Ray specs, let me remind you that Microsoft has added that they will not only include HD-DVD as an Add-on but it will only play movies! Sony has announced Blu-Ray to play Games AND movies. Two hard shells with one backbone. That's all integrated into the PS3. We'll just sit and see who wins this round smart guy!
HD DVD can win are at least solidy its existence by consistently being the price leader and picking up more studio support.
Blu Ray's storage size means nothing all HD-DVD discs shipping so far are 30GB discs. That means 4+ hour movies.
The PS3 will close the gap but it's not going to supplant HD-DVDs lead quickly because consumer equate Playstation with gaming not necessarily movies and the price is still going to be hefty.
You claim people wont buy it because they dont know what Blueray is? When people look at HD-DVD player and Blue-ray player they will see "Toshiba" and "Sony", i can bet that more people "attach" sony with Entertainment than "Toshiba". Or even panasonic is synonomous with entertainment.
The avg consumer will not get a BD plyr if it is 1k, unless it blows away the content(movies) on HD-DVD. But if the PS3 is under $700 people will buy that like crazy. Not only are you getting an awsome gaming system, but you get a BD movie player.
I think it is important to remember that first to market doesn't always win. Sony was first to market with Betamax VCRs. Matsushita and others clobbered them by creating a broad alliance with both the movie studios and other manufacturers. In this go-around, the reverse is true. Toshiba is first to market with HD-DVD, but all the OEM manufacturers and studios are signed on with Sony's Blu-ray. You can't say that Sony doesn't learn from its mistakes.
"So much death. What can men do against such reckless hate?" - Theoden, Lord of the Rings
This will be settled in the marketplace and not the bulletin boards.
There is only one person who knows how this war will end. It’s Adam Smith and he is dead (so there’s no sense asking him).
All predictions, speculation and argumentation on this matter is purely academic (and academics don’t spend as much time watching HDTV as we do so let’s not be academic).
This only matters if you only plan to buy only one deck and keep that single deck until the end of time.
When one of the two formats closes up shop . . . some of you will be winners. This means you picked the right format because you are very-very smart (despite the steep 50-50 odds of getting it wrong) and you will have older, bulkier hardware with less features).
Some you will be losers, which means you’ll have to pony-up $100 for a new deck, find another shelf for yet **another** component and **maybe** buy HDMI switch box. (Oooh this is worst-case-scenario if there ever was one).
Everyone else will either have waited (starving themselves pointlessly) or bought multiple players of **any** format.
"So much death. What can men do against such reckless hate?" - Theoden, Lord of the Rings
This will be settled in the marketplace and not the bulletin boards.
There is only one person who knows how this war will end. It’s Adam Smith and he is dead (so there’s no sense asking him).
All predictions, speculation and argumentation on this matter is purely academic (and academics don’t spend as much time watching HDTV as we do so let’s not be academic).
This only matters if you only plan to buy only one deck and keep that single deck until the end of time.
When one of the two formats closes up shop . . . some of you will be winners. This means you picked the right format because you are very-very smart (despite the steep 50-50 odds of getting it wrong) and you will have older, bulkier hardware with less features).
Some you will be losers, which means you’ll have to pony-up $100 for a new deck, find another shelf for yet **another** component and **maybe** buy HDMI switch box. (Oooh this is worst-case-scenario if there ever was one).
Everyone else will either have waited (starving themselves pointlessly) or bought multiple players of **any** format.
I would have to agree with you on HD DVD winning the battle. Sony tries to do it all and its difficult to be the best in aquisition , switching, editing, display technology and tape formats. I have not followed the war on HDCAM vs Panasonic DVCPRO but I believe Panasonic one out at the end. If the end user is a consumer, the first thing they ask is how much it costs. Ask Joe blow consumer next too you at work what he thinks about HD and the first thing they will bring up is cost.
To #13.
Actualy yes the PS2 did hurt the DVD market when it was released in Japan. DVD was still fairly new and It came out cheaper than the lowest priced DVD Player. Many people bought PS2's just to play DVD software. Considering that Sony was losing money on every PS2 at launch, Sony would never make money unless games were purchased. Sony immediately had to lower the price one of its DVD models to take pressure of the PS2 being sold only as a DVD player.
When new formats come to market they are always expensive. This helps to return R&D investments of manufacturers. If Sony sells the PS3 less than the cheapest Blu-Ray player the same problem will happen again as in Japan. Sony cannot afford to sell PS3 to people that will only watch movies and not play games. They need those game revenues to cover the loss on every PS3 sold.Manufacturers in the Blu-Ray camp will be furious for Sony taking the profit out so early in the game.
^Do you really believe that HD DVD take take over in 8 months? The DVD took years, and its only competiton was VHS.
Now, for the original post:
1. HD DVD's price lead is a reality, and it may have an effect. However I don't believe that non-educated people will be buying these players just yet. Only the educated people who AREN'T waiting. That's a really small segment of the market. I doubt we'll see much of a price drop by Q4. Remember that perception goes further than the name, a lot of people equate price with quality. I don't think price is going to stop the early adopters, they seem to have made their decision. And many HD owners have money to spare.
2. I've thought over this one... (last year, before we had any prices) and I'm not sure it's true. The fact is the average consumer doesn't know what EITHER is. If you asked a random person on the street to name a type of disc (sounds like family feud) I doubt HD DVD or Blu-Ray would come up, unless that person is a nerd. Now, when you GIVE the name to that same non-nerdy person, they will get an idea, but probably the wrong idea.
ex. Nerd: "Tell me what an HD DVD is."
Regular person (response): "It's a DVD that plays HD."
That's WRONG. That person expects that disc to play in their [SD] DVD player in HD. (Heck, just a year ago I thought I could get progressive scan on composite.) The fact is DVD, HD DVD, and Blu-Ray are all completly different technologies. The salesperson will have to explain the differences. If they are even mildly familiar with the formats, the explanation should go like this...
Salesperson: "Well, neither of these discs will play in your old DVD player, but both players will play your old DVDs. Blu-Ray and HD DVD don't work on each other. This HD DVD player costs less, but Blu-Ray has more movies available."
From your post: "this new one will play most of the new discs that are coming out"
That's not true. Blu-Ray supports two of the three major HD DVD providers, and also has many more exclusive companies.
Basically, I think it's up to the media. I've seen plently of XM vs. Sirius stories on the news, although they're back-pocket stories and a bit out-of-date. There's already been an HD DVD vs. Blu-Ray story on FOX Chicago (my news of choice) and that was before the prices were announced. It seemed balanced. However, I predict a bit of spin will come into play. NBC will be lean HD DVD (on account of Universal) and FOX and ABC will lean Blu-Ray. We'll see how it plays out, but I don't forsee any major successes for at least 2 years.
3. A head start of 3-4 months on a niche product won't be too great. Playstation 2 won because it had over a YEAR of a head start, with tons of hype from the PS1 community. It was heavily anticipated by a MAJOR fanbase, where as the HD community is much smaller. Also, people had grown into the PS franchises, but nobody knew what to expect from XBOX. That turned around with Halo, etc. and that's why 360 is doing so well.
I don't think there will be a winner for a few years. SD-only people will not buy the product. That leaves about 10% of homes. Half of those don't watch HD at all. 5%. Half of them are waiting it out. 2.5%. And I think that's generous. 2.5% of homes are looking into HD discs. By the time HD is strong enough in the marketplace, Blu-Raywill have resolved its issues (I know there are issues. This is because the format is being rushed.) and be the CLEAR dominant format. Also at that time, the price will likely have fallen to match HD DVD. Blu-Ray, if given the time, can win. I hope it does.
My take on the issue? One will become the format for commercial content sales (movies and games) due to heavier DRM, and the other more open format will become the recordable format for the home user. And the players that will prevail in the market will be able to read either format.
There is NO WAY in hell, your are going to convince Mr. & Mrs. Middle-American-Walmart-Shopper, to part with $1,000 for a DVD player. Guys, we here on this website, make up about 0.5% of the country and the world that is REALLY into technology.
There will have to be a HUGH leap in TV technology, not just a bump-up (DVD 1.5), in order to get people with NO MONEY, to part with their money on something that's NOT; Food, Clothing or Shelter.
Next year Sony will likely come out with the Blu-Ray Duo, then Blu-Ray Pro Duo or maybe Magicgate Blu-Ray with extra DRM goodness. Oh and each new format will result in a hardware upgrade to use it. Sony products = customer-screwing.
Heh, I sell this stuff, and I am just going to kick back and see what happens.
all the video game dvd players suck. so if you want a crappy blu-ray player buy the ps3.
Hologram Disks
Does the customer know there is a difference between Hi def and Higher def? that is that there are two standards, 740 lines and1080 lines?
You missed the biggest factor of all. The Playstation 3 (which includes a blu-ray drive). If the PS3 sells anything like the PS2, that will give blu-ray an installed base measured in the tens of millions. In fact, the PS2 has already sold over 100 million units. If highly unlikely that HD DVD can overcome such a huge advantage.
What are the chances this will become the "DVD+R/DVD-R" problem... oh wait, that doesn't exist. 95% of drives can read both formats. What is the potential that someone will come out with a player that will read both formats?
Actually HD DVD has good support by the PC World. For instance, iHD (the menu system that drives HD DVD) is built into windows and Intel products. The Blu-Ray Java system is not. HP is going to support HD DVD and Dell has been on the fence for a few months. Apple isn't, but Apple isn't a real player (less then 3% of the market), they are only a player in the "Media"'s eyes. I'd say the biggest plus is that Windows will be supporting HD DVD natively while Blu-Ray won't be.
And by the way. The PS3 is going to be around $700 according to many reports. Ma and Pap and Grandma and Grandpa don't want to spend $700 on a GAME console to watch good movies. PS3 is only a plus for hard core gamers that can cough up $700.
Blu-Ray has one huge advantage over HD-DVD and that is time. Sure HD-DVD has a head start. But that isn't that important considering the vast majority of people who will decide the ultimate winner don't even have TVs that can take advantage of the technology. By the time HD-TVs become more affordable and more prevalent in homes, the price point of both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will be comparable. So because the winner won't be decided for years, they will both be around until ultimately, the one with the most support remains.
And as time goes by, more and more studios and companies will take advantage of the added capacity of both. But they'll hit the upper-limit on HD-DVD first. As they envision more uses for the added capacity, it will become clear that Blu-Ray is more preferable.