Pioneer's Parsons explains why Blu-ray is poised to win
By Ben Drawbaugh 
posted May 11th 2006 11:30PM
posted May 11th 2006 11:30PM
Pioneer's Andy Parsons explained to Macworld why Blu-ray is poised to win over HD DVD. Andy explains that the combination of the support by major consumer electronic brands and the fact that Blu-ray has more studio support, will eventually win over consumers despite all the reasons Matt gave that HD DVD would prevail. The bottom line is that consumers only care about content, which he calls the killer app and even with a month to go until the first Blu-ray player hits the street it already appears that there will be more titles released for Blu-ray from day one than HD DVD will have after a 60 day head start.
"When you're a consumer looking at this and you see this enormous array of products that will be available from a hardware point of view, as well as the content side, it makes it pretty clear which format is likely to prevail," said Parsons.
Of course it ain't over till it's over, but anyone who went to CES this year can tell you that it was HARD to find a HD DVD player among all the Blu-ray players at the show.
"When you're a consumer looking at this and you see this enormous array of products that will be available from a hardware point of view, as well as the content side, it makes it pretty clear which format is likely to prevail," said Parsons.
Yeh....right....don't worry about the $500 difference between the two.
#1:
I believe the first-gen players will not 'win' the game - it will be in a few years when they are all a few hundred bucks and it gets down to titles available.
When you?re a consumer looking at this and you see this enormous array of products that will be available from a hardware point of view, as well as the content side, it makes it pretty clear which format is likely to prevail
WHoever has the first $100 player in quantity will win. When you start seeing HTIB with a high-def player is when the market will see a winner
A hybrid BluRay / HD DVD player for less than $1000 will exponentially expand the ranks of first-adopters. Otherwise, there will be many fence-sitters for the time-being...including me.
I noticed that at CES too. Didn't see a single HD-DVD player until visiting the Toshiba booth. It seemed like every other manufacturer was touting Blue-Ray and Blue-Ray also had their own booth.
For those waiting for a hybrid player, prepare to wait a loooong time. Neither the HD-DVD or the Blue-Ray licensing agreements permit hybrid players. Until that changes, and it won't change until one format is essentially dead, there will be NO hybrid players.
I remember the Toshiba rep at the road show arguing that the mere existence of a hybrid player validated HD-DVD as a standard video format. I thought it was strange the he didn't seem up to speed on the requirements of the licensing agreement. However, I've never seen a product demo that sounded like a Washington press conference with everybody in the room peppering the rep with such negative and biting questions. Toshiba must be recruiting from speech and debate schools. I digress.
If blu-ray wants to win, the $599 HDMI PS3 needs to be a solid movie box from day one (that means no "it-will-play-a-whole-movie-with-the-next-firmware-upgrade" excuse like they had with the PS2).
This will be the only player that launches with a three-digit price point and it will be the main unit that introduces blu-ray to the masses (much like the A1).
It's time for this cold war to switch to a hot war. Comparative sales figures and install-base numbers need to replace powerpoint slides, lots of promises and spec sheets.
Sony needs to match HD-DVD's install base ASAP to make up for the ground they have already lost (which isn't more than 10,000 units, right?). Their main obstacle to accomplishing that is their cheap player doesn't come out until November. This will lengthen HD-DVDs early lead and if Tosh drops prices in November to $200-$250 then they might own the '06 holiday season.
The worst case scenario for Sony is if they get bad PR if Blu-Ray is only in the hands of the stand-in-line-all-night gamers and the high-end home theater early adopters. Not the best recipe to launch a format that they masses to replace DVD with.
The winner will be the one whose players are sold at Walmart and Target along with titles.
In my opinion Toshiba has dropped the ball on an amazing opportunity by failing to supply a steady stream of players. With only 10,00 player sold and none on the shelves, my intial urge to run out and buy an HD DVD player has passed. Who cares if they 'only cost $500' if you can't buy one. When will Toshiba start shipping more players?
Andrew please provide proof that the license agreement strictly prohibits the creation of a universal player. If LG has publically stated that they plan to delivery a player and Samsung has opined about the same issue then that refutes this licensing rumor.
Neither format will get widespread adoption with the players in that price range. I'm sorry but even $499 is too much for a player that only plays a handful of movies. Not to mention the cost of the movies themselves. Once affordable hybrid players are available, no consumer will care if it's HD-DVD or Blu-Ray, just as no one asks if the DVD movie they buy/rent is a single or dual layer disc as normal consumers could care less about disc capacity. I truely believe these 2 formats will coexist because hybrid players *can* be built (licensing issues aside). During the VHS/Betamax war, it was not practical to make such a machine and the consumer does not want to setup 2 of them. Just look at all the VHS/DVD combo units out there. So long as both formats get their royality for a player, I see no reason why a hybrid player cannot be built.
hmurchison... Here's an article that backs up my claim there will be no hybrid/combo players...
http://news.com.com/A+DVD+combo+Dont+hold+your+breath/2100-1041_3-6024875.html
There is no definitive proof, but it has been hinted at by manufacturers and every journalist covering the devices. Samsung has also cancelled their plans for a combo player.
I'd much rather have DIVX HD MPEG-4 on DVD dual layer discs at 1/2 the price of HD-DVD or blu-Ray.
Andrew,
LG's announcement that they would make a combo player came after that article. Samsung cited licensing problems as their reasons for not making a combo player. But it remains to be seen if LG will have the same problems.