Why HD DVD will prevail: My opinion three months later
By Matt Burns 
posted Jul 11th 2006 11:46AM
posted Jul 11th 2006 11:46AM
NOTE: This is my opinion and is not necessarily the same of the rest of HD Beat. It has been three months since I last explained why HD DVD will ultimately win this current format war. HD DVD is off to a decent start except for that early firmware update. Blu-ray is off and running, but seems to be stumbling all over with disappointment. Three months later, I still strongly believe that HD DVD will be the winner of this format war.
Click on to re-visit my original three points only three months later.
Price
HD DVD players can be found for $500 in retail locations and a quick Froogle search can pull 'em up for close to $400. Blu-ray on the other hand is close to $1000 in stores with Froogle checking in close to $760. Toshiba probably is losing money on their player like we reported before, while Blu-ray players are sold with nice margins for everyone involved. What does this mean to the format war?A lot.
Toshiba is selling their players with the hope that people buy their HD DVD movies. They're banking on the long term here...not the short term. Toshiba will make a lot more money on the HD DVD titles when the format ultimately wins. Sony will too if Blu-ray wins but their business model is a bit different. They are trying to make money on the hardware along with the titles. But they kind of have to. Try explaining to Samsung, Pioneer, Panasonic, Phillips and LG why they should sell players below cost. How would that benefit them? It wouldn't but that doesn't matter if the only manufacturer of hardware is also the chief investor like Toshiba is to HD DVD. Eventually, when the price of the components drop for HD DVD, it will be somewhat profitable for other manufacturers to obtain the HD DVD license and build their own player.
Plus, what does that extra 500 bones get you with Blu-ray? Most peoples perception of the format isn't picture quality like it once was.
Perception
Three months ago I wrote that HD DVD is simply easier to sell than Blu-ray based on the fact that people know what high definition is and what a DVD is, so a high-def DVD isn't that far fetched for them. That fact is so much more evident now that Blu-ray is here and a person can see the difference between the two formats. Or, should I say lack of difference between them. Can anyone produce a review that states once and forever that the picture quality of Blu-ray is worth double that of HD DVD? Anyone...I sure can't find one and if tech geeks like us can't tell the difference how do you expect your parents, or next door neighbor too?Or how about your local Best Buy or Circuit City salesman? Do you think they can tell the difference? Some will tell you that they can, but challenge them. Ask them what the difference is. The educated ones will tell you that this Samsung player is processing the image at 1080i, than scaling it at the last minute to 1080p. Or they might tell you that these current discs are only single layered discs and therefore are not the full quality of Blu-ray. Well, you know what, HD DVD is here - now.
Blu-ray has launched for Samsung. Pioneer will hopefully release their unit soon with Panasonic right behind them. But these units have an even higher price tag than the Samsung does. (point one again) Sony will produce their player with any luck on October 25th, but by that time, HD DVD would have been out for over six months. This means that Toshiba's second-gen player should be right around the corner. (read: 1080p output and cheaper price) Who said that a head start isn't nice to have?
Head Start
Toshiba launched HD DVD on April 18th. Samsung launched Blu-ray on June 25h. That is a full two month head start. Kind of like how the XBOX 360 has a year head start on Sony's other cash cow: the PS3. Those two months though are bigger than they seem. Keep in mind that Sony is the head developer of the Blu-ray technology and as of today, they are still two and a half months away from launching their player. This doesn't mean that Samsung would not be able to produce a second-gen player before Sony would, but it seems unlikely that they would. Toshiba on the other hand should have a second generation player ready for launch shortly after CES '07; maybe even before this years holiday season.People don't like first generation players. They like looking at them and dreaming 'bout them but would rather wait till the second gen to buy. So the real race based on that known principle would relate the winner of this format war to who can produce a second player first. Tell me that head start doesn't matter again.
Conclusion
Right now, people are throwing up their arms, yelling indirectly at me via their computer screens. Double layer Blu-ray titles this and studio support that. Sure, Blu-ray isn't fully here yet 'cause the current discs are only recorded on single layered discs. Hopefully the dual-layered discs will look better. There is that pesky thing about studio support too. Don't you think that these greedy movie studios would gladly jump ship if they could sell more movies someplace else? Just because they are supporting one format now, doesn't mean they have the format tattooed on their arm. (or fingers, thug style)People want high-def movies, but what they don't want is to invest their hard earned cash into the wrong technology. In my opinion, HD DVD is the best bet.
I tend to agree with you.
I'm also curious as to what your opinion is on the amount and quality of movies available for each side.
At this point, as long as there's one format, that's all I care about.
However, I wouldn't discount Blu-ray just yet. PS3 could be a big booster for the format. This Christmas will be a big indicator of which format will win.
I completely agree.
Part of my agreement, however, stems from a dislike for Sony's approach to this whole format war. It might sound silly, but they've put so much stock in their brandname and literally done everything else wrong, as you've pointed out above.
They ridiculously assume that people will pay twice as much for a system that arguably isn't any better than Toshiba's, and wait an additional six months for the product to come out. Gimme a break.
Its very simple. HD DVD will win because existing DVD manufacturing plants can easily press the HD DVD's with current equipment. The same cannot be said for Blue-ray.
Matt,
I would actually believe all this if you actually owned a HD DVD player.
Let us know when you are willing to put your money where your mouth is!
sincerely,
Ben
HDBeat's resisdent Blu-ray Fan Boy.
I have to disagree. Unless Toshiba really sorts out their volumes and gets new support from Hollywood, I think this war will be over in 12 months, and HD-DVD won't prevail. You're talking about headstarts, but in the scheme of things, given the numbers involved, that's meaningless.
The problem is, Toshiba does not seem willing to take a gamble and invest a lot in putting many more machines out at the prices they're currently offering, or less. To do so in any meaningful way would cost them an arm and a leg given the per-unit losses involved, and frankly, they don't seem too ready to make that leap. Especially with recent comments that almost look like a white flag ("still seeking unification opportunities" etc.). If Toshiba isn't willing to bank on this format in a serious way, why should anyone else? They couldn't be more at odds with Sony et al, who seem to be betting the farm on Blu-ray, and I think that will pay off for them.
You haven't mentioned ps3. Ps3 is a cheap computer that sits near the tv. It will have linux, and allow people to do crazy things like pirate, mame, hd webchat, skype, and bluray, oh, and ps3 games, for 600 bucks. Its a better deal than anyone realizes. That's just my opinion. Blu Ray wins.
Ahh... but it has only been three months for HD-DVD on the market. Blu-ray hasn't been given the same amount of time to find a way in the marketplace.
You have to keep in mind though that these companies can have a business model saying they're going to lose money, sell their players for below cost, and gain a larger market share. It's not all that uncommon for japanese companies like toshiba to do this. And from a consumers point of view the Blu-ray have got more people thinking about buying HD-DVD because of price point. I have to agree with Matt, all in all this doesn't bode well for Blu-ray.
"You have to keep in mind though that these companies can have a business model saying they're going to lose money, sell their players for below cost, and gain a larger market share. It's not all that uncommon for japanese companies like toshiba to do this."
Actually, in the CE space it typically is unusual. And the problem is, Toshiba seems very hesitant to do this on the scale that would be required. You're talking massive losses, and Toshiba can't make as much back off their machine as someone like Sony can on a PS3 (that also loses a lot of money) - PS3 will make money for Sony via games, peripherals, game licenses, digital downloads, advertisement etc. as well as HD movies.
"And from a consumers point of view the Blu-ray have got more people thinking about buying HD-DVD because of price point."
There'll be a $500 Blu-ray player + PS3 on the market at the end of the year. That's the kind of volume and value proposition Toshiba has to keep up with. They're looking very isolated and out on their own in the CE space with HD-DVD, and I don't think they're up for it. Frankly, I think they're keeping things ticking over as long as they can simply to deal themselves a better hand when it comes to negotiating a deal with the BDA and their share of that pie.
I don't think any of this can properly be decided over until after the holiday season. When both big games companies have launched their players/addons and we can see how that leverages sales.
ALSO
Don't forget that Europe (or at least the UK) does not yet have either format. North America is a huge market but there's other countries to consider.
Let's mention the transfer problems and blow away the counter argument real quick. I madea pilgramage to Santa Monica last weekend to have a look at both of these technologies on the big screens at Al & Ed's, which is the Mecca for HDTV fans in SoCal.
The shop had both the Toshiba HD-DVD and the Samsung Blu-ray hooked up to a 60" Sony Grand Wega SXRD. Serenity looked absolutely magnificent on the big screem. The battle with the Reavers at the end was probably the greatest looking TV I have ever seen in my life. On the other hand, "The Fifth Element" looked pretty ordinary. Several bystanders commented that the regular DVD looked better when upscaled by HD-DVD player. It was flat-out disapointing. Several Blu-ray titles are showing this problem also.
I've mentioned this in several places now, and the standard reply is "Oh well, that doesn't count; that's just a transfer problem". I got news for you, Buck, if Blu-ray has a lot of transfer problems and HD-DVD doesn't, Blu-ray will loose and HD-DVD will win. It's just as simple as that. The market won't give Blu-ray a Mulligan or a special Papal Indulgence just because they are having transfer problems.
You can't charge more for less quality.
Matt stick to your guns like you have. Rumor has it Blu-Ray's euro launch will be delayed until Q1 2007. HD DVD is launching in the UK in sept with "new" hardware thus we'll see what 2nd generation stuff will offer in a way. Recorders for HD DVD are coming in the next 90 days.
I'm reading reports that Paramount's upcoming 10 titles look VERY good. Facts are HD DVD is looking great TODAY and the price is right.
Here's the link about the UK launch
http://www.avforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=367701
HD-DVD does make more sense TODAY than Blu-Ray. If the 2 had the time to fight it out (like VHS vs. Betamax) I tend to think that HD-DVD would win out, just because of cost (consumer costs and production costs). But in today's marketplace, neither has that kind of time. With VOD, high speed internet and the like, someone will swoop in and fill the HD gap if AFFORDABLE hybrid players never see the light of day ($250-$350). Either one side caves in (not likely), they merge formats (again not likely) or affordable hybrids show up sooner rather than later. Otherwise both will go the way of SACD/DVD-Audio. Upscaled SD DVD is a viable alternative for most consumers on their new HDTV.
What HD-DVD needs to pound blu-ray into the ground is to get the Chinese player makers licencing HD-DVD and producing players for $200-300 that are sold at Walmart under the iLO brand.......Walmart is the key. Whoever gets thier HD players there first.
Have you actually USED the HD-DVD players? They're horrendous! I work at a Best Buy and it crashes on us, doesn't respond to controls when it feels like it, and takes a HORRID amount of time to stop, play, load, or eject a disc. This often requires unplugging the player restarting it.
The Samsung BD player on the other hand loads and operates much more like a DVD player that consumers are used to. Right now Blu-ray looks OK because it's only a single layer disc with MPEG-2 compression. BUT in the Fall of 2006 they will begin releasing titles on the dual-layer format in either MPEG-4 or VC-1 compression which at that point will blow away what the HD-DVD is doing.
Unless HDDVD second-gen are a HUGE improvement over the current Toshiba player, in terms of user-friendliness, it's done for, in my opinion.
jremonson... spoken like a true company man... BestBuy WANTS consumers to buy the more expensive product... tell us something... what does the BB extended warranty cost on the HD-DVD player and the Blu-Ray player?
The PS3 has the potential to totally alienate some of the movie studios from the Blu-Ray format... lets see what happens if you can run Linux on the PS3 with that Blu-Ray drive... I would be willing to bet that within 3 months someone has some homebrew to let you copy Blu-Ray movies onto the HD... If they think "allowing" homebrew on the PS3 "Computer" is a good idea then they are just stupid. The studios have mostly sided with Blu-Ray because of copy protection implementation and managed copy... well see how many jump ship when the PS3 starts tearing all that apart!
This "next-gen" format is more about studios protecting their content then giving us end users HD video... maybe everyone should think a little more about that when looking at this whole "format war".
jredmondson have you guys updated the firmware? Current firmware version is 1.4 but most of the problems you mention were cleared up with firmware version 1.2.
DL50GB discs aren't guaranteed for a fall release but they are likely. I disagree with your assumption that they'll blow away what HD DVD is doing. If HD DVD is close to transparent with the Master then how exactly is a larger disc going to "blow away" this?
I don't mean to be rude but Best Buy doesn't exactly have the best reputation for accurate infomation. I've heard very little regarding when exactly Blu-Ray is going to use VC-1 or AVC encoding. We could see 50GB DL discs still using MPEG2 which is fine but it's unlikely to outdo 18Mbps VC-1.
MPEG2 at 25Mbps avg with peaks over 30Mbps will have a chance to draw even with VC-1 quality but I don't think you'll see any advantage over VC-1. MPEG2 is simply an older codec that is about as good today as it is ever going to get.
RANT RANT RANT........
That new Rioch lens will change everything. Now the two formats can make nice, and the studios can sell in whatever format they want. It will be transparent to the user. This is assuming the two can come back to the table and make up. They just need a better name for a BluRay HD-DVD player. How about a HD-Blu player, or just HD. Anything is better than D-Theater-disc
Comeon now. VHS vs. BETA showed us that quality differences don't matter.
HD DVD has DVD in the name. Consumers think oh, so that must be the new HD version of DVD. They also think BluRay?, more of that sony MiniDisc, Memorystick, gotta have all sony stuff thing.
PS3? Please... Only the poorest Outback steakhouse dishwashers I bought pot from used their PS2 as a DVD player. Now, with the PS3 being way overpriced, most people would like to buy a 360 and a Wii over just the PS3. Especially when people will be able to get GTA 4 at the same release date for the 360 or PS3. What's exclusive then? Gran Turismo?
HD DVD can do a one-disc layered backwards compatible layer for play in regular DVD!
Players are cheaper.
Sony has pissed people in the know off due to rootkits and the like.
In the end though, porn is the key. Who are Vivid, Wicked, Private, and Zero Tolerance going with. Theres your winner. Early rumblings suggest HD DVD - but that one company I saw was just offering some new transfers of some old old stuff.
hmurchison - if you go to the original source on that story, you'll see it's just Pioneer talking about their own rollout of BD players. They don't speak for the other companies. PS3 is still on track for release in Europe this year, for one.
Jason -
"lets see what happens if you can run Linux on the PS3 with that Blu-Ray drive"
The drive will most likely be inaccessible in Linux. This was the case with the Linux available for PS2 - the DVD drive was locked out - because of precisely the concerns you outline.
As far as I am concern, the format war has not started yet. How could there be a battle when one side has not even arrive at the battleground yet ...namely Sony's PS3? Right now, consumers are not commiting to any format except for a few cutting-edge, rich, fanatical fanboys. The war will start and end with the release of PS3 this fall.
Everybody calling the PS3 the ace in the hole needs to hear 2 words: Windows Vista.
If DVD has taught us anything, its that people enjoy and are used to media compatibility between their various computers and their DVD player.
Vista will ship with native HD-DVD support. This will promote PC manufacture inclusion of already cheaper HD-DVD drives, because BR drive support will require additional (expensive) licensing. What manufacturer wants to sell a commodity level PC that includes an $800 disc drive, when a perfectly acceptable $300 drive is available? Alienware, Apple, and Sony, and that's about it.
Once Dell, IBM, Toshiba, and HP start shipping HD-DVD equipped PCs and laptops in volume, the PS3 advantage will be nill. What are people going to buy for a player: the HD-DVD player that can read the HD-DVD discs that their new PC can write to, or a BR player that can't? PC consumers seeking "the edge" will opt for aftermarket BR drives and support (and note, if Toshiba really can go to 3 layers as they claim, then BR loses all advantage on the PC); the masses will love the HD-DVD drive that came in their Dell.
Blu-ray will win! Why? Cause they got the porn industry supporting the format. enuf' said.
Also, I'm more excited with Blu-ray then I am with HD-DVD. It's future-proof, BDs are scratch-resistence and it's got more support from studios / electronic makers...
Just imagine, there's new HD TVs out 5 years from now and you can go beyond 1080p resolution. Now, BD discs can hold up to 200 gigs, if it's using 50 gigs now, that's more then enough to upgrade using the same technology. Just keep in mind, you're investing for the long run.
The Toshiba player isn't a real appliance player -- it's got a general purpose PC processor in there, and has to boot up when you power it on. On the other hand, it's not $1000. None of the current players is going to win any war. They are too expensive and/or are not fully functional with all of the supported formats.
A real player with dedicated hardware (no boot time), full 1080p and HDMI 1.3 with proper 7.1 DD+ and DTS-HD support under $400 would be really tempting. But guess what -- while the chipsets needed to build either an HD-DVD or a BluRay player like that is not yet out, it is pretty much the same, so when it's available for one, it'll also be for the other. Toshiba can't continue to subsidize the hardware into high volumes, or at least not as much, so then the formats get to compete on software.
With software, the Blu-Ray camp looks better on paper, but they're going to have to get away from MPEG2 encoding in a hurry. Once a reasonable HD-DVD player comes out, New Line is going to want to put the LotR movies out -- that's sell a couple million players overnight.
Jake ...ummm Vista won't be coming out til 2007 ...this war will be decided during the next Christmas buying season. When Blue Ray declares the winner, Microsoft has no choice be to include drivers for BR drives in Vista. Dell, the largest computer manufacturer, has already sided with Blue Ray. Apple, the main content provider and the maker of computers most creative types used to edit such video content, also sided with Blue Ray. HD-DVD is already dead and they don't even know it.
Jake,
That is a nice write-up, but XP doesn't have native DVD support and it is still successful and Dell is already in the Blu-ray camp, so don't hold you breath waiting on a HD DVD equipped Dell.
Sy your information is incorrect and sloppy. Dell is Blu-ray only for now. HP is neutral and they have a better lineup of Media Centre stuff and Apple is firmly neutral. Go look at the specs for their authoring app DVD Studio Pro 4. Note the HD DVD authoring support?
jredmonson! I'm a geeksquad employee and those HD-DVD players are utter peices of shit, even after I upgraded the damn firmware. Every time I looked over at the Home Theatre dept., It was crashing or having horrendous artifacts in the video (even the average Joe could see something was really not right), we had 3 demo units, and they all were terrible... Headstart doesnt mean anything, why did dreamcast fail where Ps2 prevailed? Format. I think we might see it again, because in a few weeks when I own a 1080p set, means in a few months I'll be purchasing a PS3. 600 for a games machine is too much, 500 for a HD-DVD player is too much, but if I can get both for 600? I'm in.
May I note I do own a 360 already, and microsoft has done a tremendous job on it as far as structure... But I've always favored Sony's in-house dev teams as my favorites... And I do want 1080p content for my new 1080p set...
Even if a mere 20% of the ps2 base eventually buys the ps3, thats roughly 20million blu-ray owners... I agree, we'll know the winner by christmas 07'... and even though I realize that blu-ray currently has encoding problems and PQ doesnt look as good as HD-DVD, its not enough for me to plunk 500 on a something that only works less than half the time.
hmurchison,
It is obvious that Apple is going to support both formats on their pro apps, but what makes you think they are nutrual in regards to their consumer products?
Ben
For Apple it's all going to be about selling Final Cut Pro Studio. Because of that they'll have to offer support for both drives so that developers can author and then burn to installed Blu-Ray or HD DVD recorders. Apple did the right thing to join the BDA Board of Directors because they have high level access to the positioning of the format. There is nothing in it for Apple to choose one format. They don't manf drives or asics but they do make authoring software. I think Apple's relationship with Sony is deeper and stronger than Toshiba but that won't be enough for Blu-Ray to secure exclusivity with Apple for now. I'll have Final Cut Studio by next summer and I'm expecting to have authoring support for both platforms. Anything less will make me angry.
Forgetting price, headstart. I believe HD-DVD will win for a much simpler reason. The name. Everyone who reads this blog and comments in the post are tech-savy people. What about the millions of consumers who walk in to a store, have some money to spend and want the latest and greatest. "HD-DVD" - The name explains exactly what it is and what it does. High Definition -DVD. If your like me, the only some what techy person in your family, you know there are some ignorent people out there.
Maybe its all to simplistic.
Thanks
Supporter of SHDF. (Single HD Format)
Also, I'm a believer in the fact that the Format Wars will be decided on the Motion Picture front. DVD's started as movies "Digital Video Disk" later to become "Digital Versitile Disk".
Where is Lou Gertner when you need him! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lou_Gerstner
Thank
All I have to say is, my Hi-Def TV-owning parents have never even heard of Blu-Ray or HD-DVD.
hmurchison,
how would euro BD be delayed untill 07 with the ps3 making a wordwide launch 17nov06? i highly doubt that the film studios would want to miss that bus.
polt (#20)... The PS2 didn't have a built in Hard Drive... the PS3 will be totally different... with a hard drive on board there will be more people excited about its possiblities as a home brew device and more people will work on it!! Look at the old XBOX... If you have a modded XBOX there is almost NOTHING you can't do with it.
The PS3 will have that potential and it will be hacked... Sony has even been open about letting people do homebrew type stuff with it... its only a matter of time.
Oh and all you guys who think that 20 million people owning a PS3 means ANYTHING in the world of DVD your CRAZY! That is nothing when it comes to the number of people who watch movies! Besides... if soooo many people buy PS3's because they can play Blu-Ray videos on them and don't buy games the PS3 will die out... without good games the PS3 will be a huge failure.
The PS3 means NOTHING for this race... HD-DVD will be the future HD DVD format... gee... go figure...
Ahhh when all else fails pull the PS3 trump card. Sure the PS3 might make a huge impact but quite honestly it might not. Not everyone wants a game console in their home regardless of whether it plays movies or not.
I'd have to agree with Matt ... HD-DVD has some good traction going for it currently. The Paramount announcement is good news - can't wait to pick up Sky Captain & Italian Job.
As for the Best Buy employee whose Toshiba crashes, try the firmware update. I've only had 1 "hanging" incident (exiting from a menu on "Serenity"), but I did the upgrade anyway - no problems at all since.
Wow, these kinds of post never fail to bring the Loud&Ignorant out of the woodwork. Who are you gonna believe? Best Buy employees? or the A/V diehards on AVS?
Dude, I think you're dead-on! Plus I seem to recall publicly stating that HD-DVD will win on a certain podcast we all know and love! ;)
Who will come out with a computer player that can be used to record 10G of data! I've seen announcements but nothing real.
A few points, I don't think Vista's native support for HD-DVD will be an issue, as all Blu-Ray drives sold will come with the drivers needed and software better at doing things such as authoring video and burning than Windows will offer (I think Nero already has Blu-Ray support?).
Secondly, away from movies, a great deal of people that use DVDs on a day-to-day basis do not use them for just watching movies, they use them for data storage, it would appear that the larger capacity of Blu-Ray discs might appeal to people who are interested in using the discs to archive their data.
Finally I do not think Sony intends for the PS3 to be everyones main Blu-Ray player, but I think it wants it to be a lot of peoples first. I know my PS2 was my first DVD player, I bought a few DVDs for it and a year later a bought a stand-alone player. The PS3 will introduce a lot of non-hardcore movie buffs to the format, who Sony will hope will then go on to buy stand-alone players when the prices drop.
I still think it comes down to price for the average consumer as to which format (if any) will win in the marketplace. Will a consumer choose a $299 HD-DVD player at Walmart (walmart will drive the cost down) or the $700 PS3 (which walmart cannot drive sony down any lower)?
Studio support will swing to whichever formats players sell more.
I would have become a blu-ray fanboy if the prices of the players were equal, but as of right now HD-DVD is half the cost and will probably have a cheaper 2nd generation player on market shortly. Blu-ray is still $1000+ 1st generation.
You people make me laugh when you suggest "HD-DVD" has a better brand name than "Blu-Ray". Yeah, tacking on new lettering onto VHS really worked now didn't it?
HD-DVD sounds like a tacked on upgrade. "Blu-Ray" not only sounds cool, but it implies a whole new paradigm shift.
Plus, in the computer realm, Blu-Ray has support from Dell, Sony, AND Apple. Add to it the rumor that Apple is negotiating with several of the studios supporting Blu-Ray to offer iPod Video compatible files on the Blu-Ray discs for easy portability without having Joe Consumer have to transcode and rip files.
Point is, Blu-Ray will win.
23. Once Dell, IBM, Toshiba, and HP start shipping HD-DVD equipped PCs and laptops in volume, the PS3 advantage will be nill.
___
First of all, what makes you think Dell, A MEMBER OF THE BDA, is going to start shipping HD-DVD on their macines?
Dell will be shipping Blu-Ray drives by Christmas 2006.
Vista's supposed HD-DVD support doesn't mean very much at all. Any drive supporting the ATAPI standard is going to work fine. The larger issue is codec support. HD-DVD will have an advantage here on Vista, but you can bet Dell, HP, Apple, and other Blu-Ray supporters will include playback software on their systems. Besides, Windows Media Player blows. Most people realize that by now.
And people are used to using 3rd party software to play movies on their PC. I don't know if you remember Microsoft's stance on DVD playback in XP.
Bottom Line: Blu-Ray has the most MPAA support, the most PC manufacturer support, and PS3. The fact that its technically superior is icing on the cake.
I also belive that HD DVD will dominate.
For those who would really have to have a new toy, buy the HD DVD. It is much cheaper and according to reports better picture than the BlueRay. Both of these formats will become obsolete anyway when Holographic DVD becomes cheap. I would rather enjoy HD DVD now for half the price of a BlueRay if I know that both would be obsolete in the near future.
For me, I'm not buying either till one is a clear winner. At these prices, I can't aford to be wrong. I'm sure I'm not alone with this POV.
That said, I'm curious in the short-term about the upscaling DVD players. One - are they that much better than standard 480p DVD players and, Two - is HD-DVD/Blu-Ray that much better than the upscalers?
Both of these formats are junk.
HD-DVD is worthless because the technology has such a limited lifespan. Right now the discs are practically full as it is, what is going to happen as studios REALLY start adding content to these discs?
Blu-ray has more potential because of the future prognosis for blue lasers. But the current implementation of the format seems utterly handicapped, what gives Sony & Matsushita ? Where is the beef?
Anyhow, why bother with either of these if in 5 years most consumers will be able to have Internet2 speed broadband in their homes? I am sure as hell not going to bother going to the store to buy bulky discs that have to be loaded mechanically one at a time when I can just download the exact same film with the exact same features in less than 15 minutes to my media center...
Screw both formats, they can join 8-track and DAT in format hell.
hd-dvd did leave a dent in the retail for about the first week it was out. i sell these things, and everyone seems to be waiting for the blu-ray. Why? well maybe people believe that SONY Corp. who is not in league with Samsung, who will also have a blu-ray player on the market, will be the leading and number one electronics manufacturer for years to come. Thats not the only reason tho, SONY owns and operates many movie studios, they even own MGM studios. Let's see that means sony wants their technology to be used with all their movies. And the ps3, the same thing. Sony for years has been trying to start its own format, with beta, mini disc, memory stick, etc. those three are not wide scale use, but something sony has done right the "compact disc/cd" blu disc is a large advance on that simple idea. when you have a company that sells more lcd projections, and lcd flat panels than everyone else.... when prices fall you will have a company people believe in. trust me blu-ray has got hd-dvd beat. as of right now 1080p is the major question for hd-dvd someone awnser that for me, i have had trouble finding out if it can be done on hd-dvd, but blu ray can do this