Will HD DVD still have their content lead in two months?
By Matt Burns 
posted Aug 9th 2006 11:34AM
posted Aug 9th 2006 11:34AM
HD DVD currently has 30-title head start on Blu-ray but we all know that Blu-ray has a lot more studios behind of it and this should mean the format is going to catch up, right? Well, we took a few release calendars and looked two months down the road. It was rather surprising to find HD DVD maintaining their lead with 83 titles versus Blu-ray's 56. This works out to be almost the same 30-title lead that HD DVD currently has with 27 titles more then Blu-ray. This list may change but one thing is for sure, HD DVD's are not going to lay down and take the Blu-ray beating thanks to Warner and Universal's surprisingly fast release times.
This is the point I've been making for HD-DVD all along. Blu-Ray has more studios but what good is that to the average consumer if they arent releasing the movies to go along with the BR players.
King Kong and Batman Returns will be huge for HD-DVD this holiday and if HD-DVD can get the LOTR and Matrix trilogies out before BR they will be huge sellers and most likey sway people sitting on the fence to go out and purchase a HD-DVD player.
Perhaps the next two months will be slow, but it's clear that Fox and Buena Vista will ramp up releases before the holiday season, and in terms of speed of releases, Blu-ray came out of the gate much quicker than HD DVD. Meanwhile, New Line is holding off until 2007 (that means no LOTR), and Warner looks like they're going to ramp up same-day dual releases. It looks like "Batman Begins", which has been "rumored" for more than 5 months(!), is likely to hit on both formats.
Both formats will be close. Universal has slated 60 titles by years end. The Weinstein Company is delivering their first HD DVD this year. New Line is a no show until 2007 for both platforms.
The extra studios of Blu-Ray will not manifest their superiority in numbers until 2007.
Frankly I'm not worried as much about quantityt as I am about quality and HD DVDs lead here is even bigger.
Here is my criteria for buying a player: "Lord of the Rings".
I suspect many feel the same way.
New Line's *Lord of the Rings* on HD-DVD (assuming an exclusive format release) would get trumped if Fox could persuade Lucasfilm to sign off on a quick complete *Star Wars Saga* release on Blu-Ray.
There are two camps under that theory and yes one is LOTR but the other is Star Wars.
Star Wars seems destined for BR but when 2008?? 2009?? Whenever Lucas decides he needs to fill up the bankroll again we will see it on whichever format is the most profitable at that time.
TheJeremy: There's several strikes against "Star Wars" ever appearing on HD DVD.
1) Obviously, they have sweetheart deals with Fox (including future TV shows), as they have for 30 years.
2) Lucas was screwed over in multiple ways on "THX 1138" by Warner and "American Graffiti" by Universal, who later laughed in his face when he showed them "Star Wars"
3) Lucasfilm and it's subsidiaries has worked closely with Sony, Pioneer, and Matsushita on various technologies, and have been close to Sony in the high-def arena since it arrived in the US in the early 80s.
yeah I agree Star Wars is destined for BR but never say never
I would be more interested in seeing how things are by the end of the 4th quarter, the question I would ask is how many titles total will be sold for Blu-Ray, HD-DVD, and standard DVD. These numbers, rather than the amount of titles will possibly tell if a) the PS3 IS the trojan horse everyone thinks it is? b) How will the additional Blu-Ray hardware sales affect title sales? and c) will it translate into more titles being announced and or will studios begin to stop being exclusive?
yeah but those movies are many months and possably years away, in terms of the holiday 06 fight content for the consumer seams to be on HD-DVD side. what about us early adopters? i know i've already made my desision because i like SCEA gaming software, but if it wern't for that and i was making the decision on the movies i like (fast and furious) and advanced selection i see in the store right now, i would be HD-DVD
but i'm no avrage uninformed consumer and root for BD
if BD partners wants to secure the win, movie studios on BD side need to bring out more movies faster.
Studio support is the only reason I think BD has an advantage over HD. Sure, Warner is pumping those HD DVD titles, but what if they do the same for Blu-ray? And what happens when Fox and Disney get in the game?
I would immediately switch to HD DVD fanboy if they can get Fox and Disney over there. But I just don't think its going to happen. And I think the big Warner titles like Superman Returns, Batman Begins, and Harry Potter will probably be released day and date in both formats.
However, while I think Star Wars is Blu-ray's biggest trump card, I don't think they'll be able to get Lucas to sign on until there's more player penetration.
With any luck, they'll be able to weasel the numbers to include PS3 so I can get my 30th Anniversary Star Wars Saga High Definition Blu-ray Disc Boxed set next Christmas!
Jay,
Re-read my post. I never asserted that *Star Wars* would get released on HD-DVD (unless it wins). My post specifically stated that *Star Wars* being released early on Blu-Ray would trump *LOTR* exclusively being released on HD-DVD in the public arena.
and *Batman Begins* is a big title. *Superman Returns* is a disappointment of galactic proportions. Actually, I hope that film is exclusively released on HD-DVD and never is released on Blu-Ray. Then perhaps Sony can somehow destroy the master print of *Godzilla* in return and blame it on an accident. For example, like loaning it out to the BBC Archives.
It will be YEARS before Star Wars makes it to Blu-Ray or even HD DVD. They waited forever for DVD penetration to reach the mass consumer level. Don't be surprised if its 4 to 5 years down the road. However LOTR trilogy will probably be released sometime in the first quarter of next year but I can betcha its gonna be the theatrical versions. Then you will get the extended editions in a year or 2 after that. Look for the studios to milk and double dip this format like crazy, especially in the first years when its the hardcore movie buyers purchasing everything they can get their hands on. Fox is the studio that HD needs to sway its way. That would give them the edge even without Disney. Couple that with better pic quality and lower price and HD could really take it to the Blu ray camp. Although they seem to be holding their own for right now. Then again, Fox also supported DIVX against DVD and we all know how that turned out, dont we?
How many dual layers Bluray discs are out right now. None. There are not any inline manufacturing lines to make dual layer Bluray. It may be years before the manufacturing process for dual layer is developed if ever. There are only a view lines in the world that can make single layer Blueray. Batch manufacturing is not working for Bluray dual layer or they would be making them. I think the fact that HD DVD is on existing lines in the world that make dvd will be the determining facter or which format wins. If you can't make dual layer Blueray with good production yeilds what is the advantage of Bluray. Dual Layer HD DVD are not a problem to make. So HD DVD has 30G Bluray has only 25G. Bluray Cost twice as much. There is not enough manufacturing capacity for single layer Bluray. So next time someone say Bluray has more capacity than HD DVD tell them that does not seem to be true.
Wow, a whole 30 titles. That's like ... boring! When they get to over 300-titles they might be able to justify the investment.
Does anyone know the reason, why MPEG2 is used on blu-ray?
Quality and space wise it would put blu-ray ahead of HD-DVD if they used MPEG4-AVC. So what is the problem?
Decoder chips not available (Toshiba obviously got enough of them), heat dissipation... what gives?
Whatever side LOTR gets released wins... It is as simple as that...
From what I've read MPEG2 is the only high def format that will fit on a 25G disc (?) They totally screwed up if they can't produce dual layer bluray discs in quantity yet. I want bluray I dont want HDDVD cause I'm getting a PS3 but if the bluray movies barely look better than DVD then whats the point ..... I wont buy any bluray movies / shows unless they're on dual layer discs encoded in the newer formats. Ugh!