51GB triple-layer HD DVDs in the pipeline?
By Darren Murph 
posted Jan 8th 2007 1:11PM
posted Jan 8th 2007 1:11PM
Just after Verbatim announces that it's shipping 30GB dual-layer HD DVD-Rs our way, here comes some more news to slightly deflate that bubble. At an HD DVD presentation held at CES, at interesting PowerPoint slide caught our eye, as it (very briefly) described plans to "expand HD DVD disc capacity from 15GB to 17GB per layer, and moreover, to add a third layer as well, eventually resulting in a 51GB HD DVD disc. Aside from upping the ante on Blu-ray's capacity by a measly 1GB (currently, at least), it's also noted that "technical feasibility" has yet to be confirmed, and that standardization wouldn't occur until Q4 of this year at the earliest, but it's a novel idea to say the least. So if you're looking to pick up an HD DVD player right this moment, and can't wait to embrace all the potential compatibility issues with a drive never made to play these newfangled, triple-layered discs, have at it -- of course, all those conflicts rely on this pipedream ever being realized. It should be interesting to see how (if at all) the BDA addresses this potential new disc in their press conference later today, and if they'll pay any attention to possibly being leapfrogged in an area they currently lead. Pfft, and you thought the HD DVD / Blu-ray war was settled.
Just a comeback at blu-ray's superior capacities!
I have watched 20 of HD-DVD and 20 Blu Ray discs .. Hd-DVD looks better hands down .. i can care less what format wins seeing i have both .. just my experence
I've been through the miserable recent experience of trying to make current generation HP DVD-DL (two layer, not three)disks write reliably - or even be recognized as a valid medium - on 4 different DL recorders without success. I'm not holding my breath regarding the commercial adoptability of these far more difficult to engineer blue laser devices; my experience in the optical disk world since the '80s has been: announce, announce, announce, underdeliver late, require belt and suspenders to provide any degree of data safety, and don't even think about smooth cross-compatibility as a given. The only real exception, and marginally so, was the CD.
I can remember brand new Sony single speed CD-R's fresh out of the package that a new and expensive SCSI HP dual-speed writer couldn't even recognize. This particular lunatic fringe of the industry is overpopulated with marketspeak and suicidal engineers trying vainly to make it work. I know - I had a company in the business for 11 years. Just last night I checked a disk that Roxio said had been burned successfully; no data on it. Optical disk is a "check your backups and worry a lot" technology that is always being eclipsed by magnetics.
Do the math - terabyte magnetics for $400 retail. Now calculate the cost of the same on optical - drives plus media. Get the picture? There's no crossover point! Take the Sony 200 DVD disk changer: add 200 media at $1 each and add it to the $500 for the changer, then add the software. $700+ for 1.7 terabytes of slow, mechanically complex and noisy video or data server that requires a computer to manage and a fork lift to move.
For data, it's worse, because you never get 100% fill on an optical disk; there's always unused space at the end, so the "overhang" reduces the effective capacity. Speed? No comparison - 10 seconds to load, several more to spin up and start, vs. 10 millisecond access on magnetics. Space - I can fit 30 external HDs in the space of a Sony 200 disk changer - power consumption, reliability, speed, convenience, you name it; optical is a poor solution precisely because the vendors never deliver what they spec out, or deliver it so late it's irrelevant.
51 GB tri-layer disks in the pipeline? You better live at the wellhead if you want to see real product in your lifetime.
That's a real purty picture you paint there regarding "magnetics" (I just call them "hard drives", but I don't expect my term to really catch on with the general public).
Of course you're omitting a few things. First of all portabality... sure you can use external "magnetics", but if they are used ultra-portably you dramatically increase the second problem, drive failures. It might take an extra 30 seconds to verify a burned disc, but then as long as you don't throw it around casually you know it'll read, it's built to be portable. On the other hand, with "magnetics" you know it has your data, but once the drive fails you're out of luck (or out of tons of money to hopefully recover the data). Plus you've got the huge differential of data lost between a 4 GB DVD and a 500GB "magnetic" (and as we've seen, as optical discs increase capacity, so will HDDs).
Ultimately neither one is a perfect solution, so I have HDDs with instant access to all my data, but I also have DVD backups in case the HDDs fail. Championing one format while claiming the other is useless is short sighted and foolish. Advances in both technologies, side by side, means better options for the consumer...
I rank this announcement right up there with the mysterious (i.e. non-existent) Triple Layer disc the HD DVD folks announced that they were going to "propose" two years ago. We're still waiting for that particular Vaporware to materialize. Fortunately, we don't need to hold our breath waiting for this latest Triple Decker concoction to see the light of day. Blu-ray Disc already offers 50 GB capacity with plenty of room for growth as the format evolves. That's why it has the support of virtually every major Hollywood studio and most of the CE and IT industry.
Not to mention the fact that these pretty much throw the whole HD-DVD camp's it cheaper to produce argument right out the window. Also you will need a new player for these, mo' money on HD-DVD player to read a disk that has the capabilities of a dual-layer BD that are out now and work in any BD player out there? This is the worst thing for HD-DVD.