Universal poised to hop onto the Blu-ray bandwagon?
By Ben Drawbaugh 
posted Feb 7th 2007 5:23PM
posted Feb 7th 2007 5:23PM
Ever since Universal's non announcements at CES this year there has been speculation that Universal's days of HD DVD exclusivity are numbered. Sure they came out and announced 100 titles without dates for 2007, but many still wonder when they will be released. Ross Rubin from The NPD Group writes Switched On and has an interesting analysis of why he thinks Universal is poised to hop on the Blu-ray bandwagon faster than you can say TotalHD disc. While this is nothing more than speculation, he has a point -- Universal is going to have a tough time ignoring the recent sales figures and the shear number of 
Guess the analysyst forgot to mention Universal re-iterated no plans to support Blu-ray this year. They specifically mentioned 100 "Exclusive" titles. The speculation is just that...speculation. Let is not forget that neither format amounts to more than a micro fraction of numbers compared to DVD. The PS3 is a game console that doesn't have enough games yet and is a capable movie player. Let us get real here. A million PS3 and Standalone BD players plus better current release schedule should equal a BD whitewash and that really isn't happening.
Companies have been known to change their stance. The term "exclusive" can go out the window in no time.
Universal is the big fish in the HD-DVD arena; almost a monopoly. If you own an HD-DVD player, you will most likely have a few Universal titles. Easy money.
They will milk this for as long as they can. Then, take those same encoded titles and put them on BD for even more money at little extra cost.
hmurchison
Since you work for Toshiba, i think anything you say means nothing. And you're ugly. I saw your webpage. WESTSIDE!!!
Just because Universal says it has no plans to switch sides doesn't mean they aren't looking at the sales figures. Remember, business is business, and if they see an opportunity to make a lot more money by releasing Blu-Ray titles, they will.
And just because some random guy says he thinks universal will switch doesn't mean they will. Yet its posted as a factual story by the resident bluray fan..... ben "bluray" drawbaugh.
Kinda funny though that there are 0 comments to the post made 4 hrs ago on engadget.com of all places. This is just another analyst talking and nobody really cares other than those that want to spin it one way or the other.
I hope they hold off for a while. Having two competing formats is healthy. If it weren't for HD-DVD I don't think you'd find BD's selling for the same price as most HD-DVD's.
The competition is healthy, even though I'd like to be able to buy Universal movies for my PS3.
Comments have been turned off on all of Ross's columns for a year or so.
I am not trying to defend anyone, but Ben DOES say that it is only speculation. I agree that Universal is not likely to switch sides right now. However, the economic realities will dictate where they go. If they see a gold mine in Blu-Ray, they will most definitely take that path at some point. However, if their analysis shows that their revenue will be good with HD-DVD only, then they will stick with that. Of course, I am assigning common sense to a large corporation, which is never a given. :)
I can't wait until Universal releases movies on Blu-ray. It's only a matter of time until this dumb war is over and Blu-ray wins.
"Guess the analysyst forgot to mention Universal re-iterated no plans to support Blu-ray this year."
Hilariously, Warner and Paramount were saying the very same thing in mid-2005. In fact, Warner spokespeople were sometimes the mouthpiece for HD DVD, and their support was described as "hard-line" and "unwavering". Funny how short some people's memory is.
well i didnt know they disable comments on his posts....
still im seeing more and more people not care about these types of posts because they have been done to death in every possible way. not one of these articles bring anything new to the debate.
well i didnt know they disable comments on his posts....
still im seeing more and more people not care about these types of posts because they have been done to death in every possible way. not one of these articles bring anything new to the debate.
and i know ben put the word speculation in the article but it doesnt change the overall tone of the article. He gets 50 words into the article before you know that the whole thing is nothing but speculation on ross's part.
I'm not really an expert, but from reading what I've read here, I don't think Universal will switch or make dual format movies.
People are saying that if Universal does switch/hybrid or support both formats then HD-DVD is dead. Well if they do that then Universal will lose out on the monopoly it has and lose a crap load of money! By doing that they'll have to compete with Disney, Sony Pictures, etc. which can be a loss.
So it's a bad business decision... right?
I'm guessing here, what do you think?
The moment they shift its over!
I hope they do is sooner ;)
I think many of you are missing the bigger picture. DVD was going nowhere until it came to the masses via PS2. The same thing is happening now with PS3 and Blu-Ray. Even if PS3 does relatively poorly against Sonys own predictions the fact is that there will be a huge installed base of PS3s by Christmas 2007. People currently weighing up whether to buy HD DVD or Blu-Ray will already have start to be influenced by the January sales numbers for Blu-Ray vs HD DVD. These numbers are already appearing in the mainstream media not just the forums, blogs etc. If current trends continue it won't be long before Blu-ray is selling 5 and 6 times the volume of HD DVD disks and once that happens Universal will be missing out on substantial sales and will make the leap. There is such poor general commentary on this whole issue, much of it is laughable. The fact is that market forces will win. The PS3 is the vector through which millions will have Blu-Ray compared to the modest 175,000 HD DVD players or so that have been sold to date. It will be game set and match a lot quicker than people think. As for the porn industry, they will just go with the largest format, they are not the kingmakers any more. Porn is available in lots of formats these days not just potentially on video as in the seventies when it was ground breaking to have moving image porn in the privacy of your own home. That exclusive ability influenced the success of VHS back then. But things have changed... Both HD DVD and Blu-Ray players can upscale SD DVDs and there is plenty of porn on DVD or on satellite/cable channels, online etc. The only way they could influence this format war was if they somehow had the ability to take porn off all other formats/platforms and only make it available on HD DVD or Blu-Ray. Clearly not only is this ludicrous but it is also impossible. By the way, have you seen the amount of dogs in porn films? Would you really want to see them in HD? Personally I think Ill pass on that one. Sometimes soft images are just fine...
you are out of your freakin mind if you think dvds success is because of PS2. Liteon and all the other sub $50 players made dvd.
Ps2 made DVD successful? Okay guy, how about some facts to back that up bud.
one thing people seem to forget in europe we get everything more expensive, so are BD players, people here are thinking HHmm 300 HDDVD player or 700 BD player (700=about$1400). So please don't forget that if BDA wants to win they should think about there price and globaly. I have no side both format are ok for me, so whoever wins won't matter as long as we don't get ripped-off. Also many people are trying to get the 360 add-on but none in stock for now (in uk). HDDVD cheap, BD expensive so do the math.
BD expensive so do the math
What, I can do the math; however, you forgot to mention the Xbox360s price. Remember, Xbox360s HD-DVD drive is useless without the Xbox360 itself. Nevertheless, Xbox360s drive does not play games, and if an update will let it play games, then your second drive would be useless, what a waste of money.
This would be a very interesting article if there was any fact to it. This is nothing but speculation.
DVD would have been just fine without the PS2
economic reality? Gosh people should run some numbers:
With the sales numbers sony released yesterday it has become apparent that the average number of copies sold for a movie on either side is about 2,500 copies (yes thats right). Trust me NO ONE is leaving money on the table yet, at this point it is just strategic posturing.
So if you want to delude your self that things are going well, just remember that the average revenue per title (on both sides) is $20 x 2,500 = $50,000. I doubt that even covers the replication.
Well those sales figures are a much needed reality check. Blu-Ray might be outselling HD DVD by 2 to 1 but if that still only amounts to 2500 copies per movie, then it's a big fish in a tiny puddle.
There are so many PS3s out there compared to HD DVD players that Blu-Ray has to have greater potential to win this war - but clearly it isn't making the most of that. Why aren't PS3 owners buying more DVDs? Only when you have titles selling a million copies each are Universal really going to sit up and take notice.
Hey JohnP, see that button on your keyboard that says "Enter"?
When did endgadget turn into /.?
Further to the comments of RyanJ although I haven't quoted exact facts as such (this not a thesis afterall) but I think you will find what is written is fair comment.
With regards to tranzparenti's comment PS2 ramped up the installed user base of DVD and accelerated the demand for more releases and then the stand alone player market kicked in. Without this factor adoption of DVD would have been far slower or could have been headed off by another emerging format.
I know I am stating the obvious but Sony are more than aware of the PS2 factor with DVD and this is precisely why they are endeavouring to recreate the effect with Blu-Ray and the PS3 and if the Janauary sales are anything to go by it seems they are succeeding. Unless there is a new show stopping initiative from HD DVD I think it will be all over bar the shouting very soon.
JohnP
By the way, have you seen the amount of dogs in porn films? Would you really want to see them in HD? Personally I think Ill pass on that one. Sometimes soft images are just fine...
Well said my friend... well said...
"Remember, Xbox360s HD-DVD drive is useless without the Xbox360 itself."
Actually, it's not useless -- it plugs into a PC quite nicely. And if you're posting on here, you obviously have a PC.
PORN!!! What is the world coming to? Go get a life, hobby, girlfriend, boyfriend, or play some sport. JESUS CHRIST!!! WTF!!! Porn is a scam to make shitload of profit; it is waste of money, and indecent. Porn would be useless in HD, I hope Universal switches sides ASAP so Blu-Ray can win and block all porn.
I have to agree with the post above that pointed out that someone here is a shill for Toshiba...
That said:
"We will not support blu-ray" - Warner 2005
"We will not support blu-ray" - Paramount 2005
"We will not support blu-ray" - Universal 2007
Anyone else see a pattern here? I just seems that one of the three is taking longer to learn... I put about as much credability in studio announcements as:
"I did not have sex with that woman" - Bill Clinton
All these statements are simply pandering to the fan (or more rightly "fanboy") base of the moment. The economics will prevail.
Content is...and always will be King.
The PS3 was designed to be a Trojan Horse for BD...and its very obviously working.
Universal will switch to BD support...whether its next week...or next year...remains to be seen.
The obvious future of HD optical is with BD...who really just launched in November as far as Fox/Disney and most stand alone players as well as the PS3...and have already taken the lead in every category.
If Universal does support Blu-Ray, there's really little reason for HD DVD to continue, but by the same token, I agree, DVD is still the dominate format, and will continue to be for at least a couple of years.
Universal is really in the driver's seat.
As far as Blu-Ray is concerned, it's far too early to tell if the format is successful. Right now, we're primarily contending with PS3 owners who happened to buy or receive a free Blu-Ray movie. Well all know the excitement over the PS3 has since waned and they're no longer selling out.
I noticed in the weekly ads, some Blu-Ray movies are buy one or two, get one free. While if you buy a player, you get one or two free. I can't imagine these 'deals' being offered if the format was doing well.
Honestly, I don't care what format wins. I'm not running out to buy either. I'm sticking with DVD as long as I can, and hopefully will be able to transition to digital distribution.
Ps2 made DVD successful? Okay guy, how about some facts to back that up bud.
Maybe the fact that in the first weekend of the playstation 2's launch it sold 900,000 units, so thats 900,000 dvd players in homes in ONE weekend. This has been continuing up until now with total sales of over 111,250,000 units.
But then that begs the question... Did the PS2 make DVD sucessful, or did DVD make the PS2 sucessful?
DVD had been on the shelves 2 years or more before the PS2 launched. Internal DVD drives had sence dropped to $100, and consumer intrest had started to pick up on DVD by the time the PS2 came out.
But this isn't 100% accurate of an assumption that the PS3 will do the BD, what PS2 did to DVD.
DVD was a paradigm shift in what it meant to watch a movie. It changed the way we watch movies. Bonus content, No rewinding, lasted longer, took up less space... and eventually allowed easier archiving of old television shows. And for a consumer to take advantage of that, all they needed was a DVD player.
Now for BD... there is no major shift.. except in video quality, and interactive features that, oddly still have to make their way to BD. You need a new TV, and not just a new TV, a new HD TV that has HDMI and is HDCP complient to see ANY benefits in your new $500-$1000 player. Hell, even my HDTV dosen't have HDMI. Add onto all that the BD dosen't have that 2 year head start for the platform itself to mature...
But to say who is going to win.. Probabbly Blu Ray if they can keep up the releases. I personally am in the HD DVD camp with the Xbox 360 HD DVD player and a strong hatred of Sony's recent tactics. But In the end, content is king. The sooner this format war is over the better. Plus MS has already said that if Blu Ray wins the format war, there is nothing stopping them from releaseing a BD add-on.
All this BS is most likely because studio heads talk to each other to see what each other's earning reports are and positions on the subject. None really are shrewd businessmen. Don't they realize that if Universal/New Line/Warner commit to HD-DVD-only releases, they'll make a killing on disc AND player sales based on their HOT releases like LOTR and Matrix.
Why not wait until those sales are exhausted, then release the same stuff on Blu-Ray with slightly different menus and extra features. That will pretty much make everyone buy the same movies twice... I know Lucas follows that business model with his Star Wars legacy. Seems to be working out fairly well for him.
I really don't believe that not supporting Blu-Ray is helping Universal sell more HD-DVDs. If nothing else, I would think they would be covering all their bases by selling to both markets and letting the resulting sales tell them where to concentrate future releases.
Additionally, given that Sony is willing to lose several hundred dollars on each PS3 sale to get Blu-Ray technology out the door, I can't imagine that they're not currently throwing bux at Universal to get them to reconsider. Obviously, some combination of hardware AND software, and pricing will decide the outcome. The fight over DVD-A and SACD has shown these companies that competing formats will not succeed if they both provide essentially the same service. Plus, it's possible that the talked-about Chinese HD system will be cheaper and better, and holodiscs may be just a couple of years away.
Although Chinese production of either format should bring the cost down, that may take some time, given that they will be paying royalties on each player produced -- twice, if they make combo players. CD players tended cost over $800 the first year of release, and the first DVD players cost even more. There needs to be some critical mass before new items -- like flat-panel displays -- devolve into commodities and commodity pricing.
It's going to be an interesting year.
What happened to the "VHS/Betamax" mud slingers...what suddenly the tech nerds arent so comfortable with the situation.
It's funny how everyone suddenly goes from hating bluray to praising it. Denial set in about a month ago...now it's utter acceptance. How sweet it is btw.
Bluray benefits everyone...the only people who stood against it were hardcore xbox losers, Times Up, Games Over.
Sony Wins. : )