DreamWorks CEO predicting neither HD format will win
By Matt Burns 
posted Mar 29th 2007 7:58AM
posted Mar 29th 2007 7:58AM
We here at Engadget HD are currently engulfed in this latest format war, Blu-ray and HD DVD, but does the average consumer care either way? DreamWorks CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg is stating that neither format is going to become the next home video platform. We have heard naysayers before and even though he does have a decent point that there isn't that large of a "delta" between DVD and high-def disc, we still think one of these formats are going to stumble away beaten and bruised. DreamWorks has yet to release one of their animated films on either format and somehow we don't see that happening anytime soon.
Wow, someone that actually knows what they're talking about for a change!!!
Well, he is wrong. Currently there are 8 titles on Amazons top 100 that are in HD.
Eventually this number will hit 10 then 20 then 50.
Within 5-7 years DVDs will be on life support.
What a silly comment to say.
Well I was mainly referring to his comment that neither format will win. Plus you have to realize the number of people who have no interest in a HDTV nevermind HD player. It's a larger amount than you probably think.
Predi-c-ting that neither side will win is silly, Beta and VHS took YEARS to take off. HDTV has taken longer to take off than had been expected, but it has finally reached the tipping point and adoption is very quick now.
It is true that DVD is "good enough" for many, but this is because people spent decades stuck with quality that was far less and suddenly there was a dramatic improvement. If people had had HDTV for decades with OTA far superior to DVD and suddenly HD-DVD and or Blu-Ray showed up it would be the same experience of awe at being able to have an equal or superior viewing experience.
Don't believe the Digital Transmission hype. There won't be the bandwidth for years, maybe a decade or longer. The big studios are scared to put quality stuff out there even with DRM and the Cable companies are loath to let their internet pipes compete with their bread and butter TV pipes and will shape downloads to prevent full HDTV over internet.
Player costs will come down much more quickly than DVD players did and are starting at a MUCH lower cost point to start with. Once players are can be had for $250 and below, which should happen probably by Christmas this year, they will fly off the shelves. This is when you will see the big adoption rate, at least 20% if not 50% of HDTV owners.
The only real drama here is if HD-DVD can survive till Christmas. If it does we may have to live with both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray for years to come.
"Don't believe the Digital Transmission hype. " - huh?
It's already being DONE.
My cable system has tons of movies on demand. It works fine. The future is not on a disk - I agree with Katzenberg. I have a 1080P tv and a HD-DVD drive w xbox 360. My upscaling DVD player is just fine. Most people agree.
"... even though he does has ..." I'm going to have to start invoicing you for my proof-reading anyway I think. I've kept quite a few other mistakes in reserve in case you just fix the ones I tell you about and don't want to pay for the rest.
HD-DVD and Blue Ray I say to heck with them both!!
What about the Holograghic discs coming down the pipe. They got a prototype up to One Tereabyte per disc. Neither of those formats can compete with that.
Then when Flash Memory matures we'll see HD quality movies on a format the size of a Postage Stamp.
Also - I read that something like 47% of the HDTV's sold are NOT even hooked up to a HD source (cable box etc).
A lot of people just don't understand or care.
What makes me laugh is what Katzenberg said. It was Dreamworks and Disney that CHOSE to go the Divx disc route versus the DVD route 11 years ago, and they got burned. Neither studio had DVD product on the market for nearly two years after DVD's introduction.
So it doesn't surprise me a bit "K" in SKG would say such a thing.
...not a large delta...
At one point I thought so, too. Then last night I watched Happy Feet (HDDVD) followed by the standard DVD version of The Pursuit of Happyness. As the second film started, it was really pretty obvious -- what a blurry mess. Katzenbach needs to get a 1080p set.
Probably Mr Katzenberg is reinforcing Dreamworks strategy of "3D TVs are the next big thing."
Have a read of this: http://www.mediavillage.com/JMER_Archive/03-31-03ER.pdf to see why Katzenberg can't stand up and say either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD is the "next big thing".