No matter what the BDA tells you,
there is no se the
Paramount/
Dreamworks news is a big deal. We're not only talking about 10% of all the Blu-ray titles, we're also talking about some of the biggest titles -- like MI3 and Transformers. Of course we expect the BDA to have a bunch of articles all over the Internet explaining that this is a non-announcement, or that they were paid off -- as if it matters why -- which we find interesting to read, but it doesn't change the fact that this might be the watershed moment that could give
HD DVD the advantage. Of course this thing is a long way from over and anything could happen, but the prediction that the
format war will be over this holiday season seems really silly now. Especially when combined with the news that both
Samsung and
Onkyo will be in the HD DVD hardware game sooner rather than later.
Read - Blue Ray Technologies Responds
Read - Market Conditions & Logic Don't Coincide
Read - Forecast Says Industry Still Behind Blu-ray
posted Aug 23rd 2007 11:31AM
lol nice attempt and reverse spin control. First of all they got paid.. secondly we're talking Paramount. What you call 10% we're really talking 33 titles .. Transformers isn't even out. and in the end we're only talking 18 months here not forever. Plus HD-DUD will still fail so they'll end up coming back to Blu-ray anyhow. With Universal considering going neutral, Disney sticking to it's gune, and Sony's projects Blu-ray will win this just prolonged domination. Even though some consider 2:1 domination. :)
Yeah, seriously. This is Paramount we're talking here. I mean, they're ONLY the #1 studio right now for the year 2007 in the box office.
Not that important. :-P
Ya, right John. BDA is shaking in their shoes and so are you.
For your information "Viacom" owns Paramount Pictures, and guess what other company they own . . . that's right, Blockbuster video. Microsoft is not finished yet - stay tuned.
@JohnDoe30 who is doing the spinning... I think you are.
Your comments just sounds like the tune of sour grapes from a Blu-ray zealot.
May want to ask your magic eight ball again about your prediction. Whether you want to admit it or not, HD-DVD has been and is here to stay.
Honestly, do you really think any exclusives, BR or HDDVD, doesn't involve money? Why is it such a shock that Paramount was paid off? Why is it news? OF COURSE they were paid off and OF COURSE Sony pays off the companies in their pockets...it's an unfortunate truth to this stupid war.
GET OVER IT ALREADY
Actually, Amir, an inside Rep from Microsoft, has already stated that they have not paid off Paramount or Dreamworks in anyway whatsoever.
whatev bd fanboy. go stock pile your blu-rays...they'll go good with the sony laserdiscs and betas you have in the attic.
JohnDoe303 is trying to back to living in his dream rather than a reality. Keep telling yourself it will only be 18 months, the CTO announced that it was an indefinite commitment. Plus there is more Pro-HD DVD news about to drop at Cedia very soon that will probably make you want to keep living in your dreamworld even longer. Look for either Warner to pull the same plug as Paramount, or Lionsgate to go neutral, or the announcements of sub $200 HD DVD players to flood walmart this holiday season.. You guys got to ride your wave of good news for awhile, but face the facts, the tide is shifting and things do not look good for Blu-ray no matter how you fanboys try to spin it. I look forward to adding another sony failed format to the timeline of all their other failed attempts! Anyway, enjoy your massive "studio support" now, along with your expensive hardware, and incomplete sloppy software, while team RED reclaims the thrown.
nobodies shaking here.. and, lol don't hold you breath!
One correction there, Viacom actually cut Blockbuster loose a few years back. Turns out multinational corporations don't have much patience for sectors of their business that lose billions of dollars in a single year.
Dave, is that you posting as JohnDoe? :)
33 titles, when your format has less than 300 available, is a HUGE number. And Universal considering going neutral? Don't get out much, do you? They've repeatedly insisted that they're staying with HD DVD and even praised Paramount/Dreamworks for going exclusive. Why would they switch?
Also - 18 months is a rumor and a bad one at that. Paramount has said the agreement will last "years" -- meaning two or more. 18 months < 24 months.
As for Ben's post -- either I'm getting less cynical, or I didn't see a single anti-HD DVD spin in the post... In other news, cats and dogs are playing together in harmony! :)
I like the 'Blue Ray Technology' "article," in which some no-name guy (Hanson) complains about the Paramount deal. Why? Because he spent $12M on a Blu-Ray manufacturing plant in Washington. Pretty funny, but at least they disclosed that tidbit in the article, so that's cool. He also failed to mention that Bay went back on what he said while (allegedly) drunk and actually likes HD DVD now.
With Universal and Paramount both HD DVD exclusive, no way will the format disappear. I think BD has a much higher chance of disappearing to be honest, although I bet both will actually end up surviving.
All I know is my favorite movies Pirates 3, Spiderman 3 and Ratatouille are coming to Blu ray. And Harry5 is coming to both.
In the End Blu ray is still selling more movies. And PS3 is selling faster than all stand alone players and will more so with the Christmas Holidays coming up.
"In the End Blu ray is still selling more movies."
The news is only 3 days old. We only know how well blu-ray has sold up to 8/12.
I work for one of the few independent studios releasing both HD DVD and Blu-ray discs. I figure I might as well chime in here.
Blu-ray hailed AACS encryption as something that would lure content owners, and they pointed out that it would be used to prevent a repeat of the error with Betamax, where the porn industry was shunned.
However, dealing with AACS is complicated and expensive -- not just for the customers, but for content owners. We release batches of 2500-5000 copies at a time. The AACS fees are in the $2,000 PER LAYER range each time we submit a master for replication. If there are any errors and we need to correct them, it's another $2K per layer each time.
Effectively, this means that small studios -- and a lot of adult studios are smaller studios, at least compared to the majors, see replication costs increase between 50% and 100%. You can (now) supposedly choose to leave AACS off your titles, but many players won't support it. If you want to be compatible with the broad range of players, you need to include it.
Let's say a small company (porn or otherwise) puts out 200 titles in a year -- that's about $400,000 in extra fees that you wouldn't have to pay if you used HD DVD.
AACS, which was portrayed as attractive to content owners, is just a headache. (and content owners know and fully expect that any protection scheme will be cracked, so we don't really it consider copy protection in any real sense).
You know what's funny.. it's funny to see what Blu-Ray zealots do when Warner announces exclusivity this Friday or early next week...LOL...
Have you seen the new The Look and Sound of Perfect Promo - "Take the red pill"?
It says HD DVD brought to you buy Universal, Paramount and Warner .. and when it says EXCLUSIVE titles available only on HD DVD they show Warner titles across the board.. LOL..
HD DVD insiders are already pretty sure, as well as BD ones that another huge HD DVD announcement will be made and my money right now is on Warner.
If this happens, you can say goodnight to Blu-Ray.
@HDMarketingDude
That was extremely informative. Thank you! It makes me wonder whether part of the intention from the larger studios in supporting Blu-Ray exclusively was to limit competition from the independent studios. Anyway, thanks for the information.
nice work Ben, let us know when you get that A3 :)
I sure looks like dual format players are going to be the way to go...and the consumer is going to cough up the extra licensing money.
@ metroid21
The "End" is nowhere in sight my friend, and the 2:1 ratio could quickly fade with Paramount's announcement (witness the spanking the Wii has given the Xbox 360 and PS3 despite their leads). As for Pirates and Spidey, I say "meh." Yes, they were blockbusters, but only by default because of their built-in audience. It's widely acknowledged that both sequels were VASTLY inferior to the originals, so sales may be brisk initially and fade sharply (duplicating what happened in theaters).
As for the PS3, the inverse relationship of this console intrigues me. Games for it have become an afterthought, as its "dedicated Blu-ray player" status seems contingent upon games NOT being the focus, which is what I thought was the point of a console. I'm glad the 360 hasn't fallen into that trap, releasing awesome games and giving owners the OPTION of exploiting its multimedia capabilities.
@Paul Fernandez
Absolutely. I couldn't agree more about the 360. People can scoff all they want at the fact that the 360 doesn't have an internal HD DVD drive, but the fact of the matter is that Microsoft's decision was far more consumer friendly. While people will be quick to point out that after you purchase both, you've spent the same amount as would have for a PS3, however you would ONLY buy both if that's what YOU choose to do. There is a huge difference here.
For those people that want to use it solely as a gaming console, and enjoy the great exclusive titles that are available, they can do that far easier and cheaper than if they bought a console that came with an internal HD DVD drive they had no intention of using. Naturally for those 360 owners that are interested in buying into HD DVD, they need only pick up the add-on. It's the perfect introduction. Sure, the total price is not cheap, but assuming there are millions of people that already own a 360, the cost of purchasing the add-on is a deferred cost and as such it will surely make the purchase easier to justify. Not to mention we will likely see prices of the add-on dropping even further as we approach the holidays, and I'm sure they'll have some great deals on Black Friday. On top of all that, the beauty behind releasing an external player is that it allows for dedicated HD DVD player sales which are far more quantifiable and arguably the most important factor in driving film sales.
Dedicated hardware moves discs. Period.
If Warner goes HD DVD exclusive - and I doubt they will unless the HD DVD camp shovels a lot of money at them like Paramount and Dreamworks, and more than those deals considering the library - it just means a stalemate and the market will probably be permanently split. Sony, Fox, MGM, and Disney have all restated their intention to remain BD exclusive. It wouldn't be a death knell for BD by any stretch of the imagination.
If that happened, both formats would probably go for the kill this holiday season and, if neither side knocked the other out, it would likely mean a permanent split in the market and both sides would have to start looking at low-cost dual-format players to remain in the game.
I find it hard to believe that the tide is turning for HD-DVD when almost everyone in the industry agrees this is a cash grab by Paramount/Dreamworks. It would have been more impressive if they had made their decision based on the merits of the format, but despite the paid spin, that's clearly not what's going on here. Don't forget the third contingent out there which I believe is larger than either side those that want this format war to end. If hi-def movies are going to succeed, one format needs to dominate, and all studios will be on the cash bandwagon when the market is primed for mass adoption. It's just going to take a bit longer now. I don't see the 2+:1 software sales equation changing by Paramount switching sides. Xmas brings Fox back and more PS3 sales. I don't see a huge shift, the content advantage is still squarely with blu-ray.
does this mean that 33 movies will be removed from the Blu-Ray Vs HD-DVD count???????????
It so HD-DVD will have the lead 273 to 253
Continuing to sit on the fence on this little HD battle is quite interesting -- first, I honestly don't care which side "wins." I have a slight preference for Blu-ray only because of the titles, although there are plenty on the HD DVD side that are some of my favorites.
Responding to Paul's comments regarding Spiderman 3 and Pirates, much the same can be (and was) said about Shrek 3. Indeed, reviews for Shrek 3 were far worse than the reviews for either Spidey 3 or Pirates 3. And Transformers was widely seen as a 2 plus hour Chevy commercial with some fancy CGI robots. The point of this is to illuminate that the quality of these movies, at least as determined by reviews, and especially in comparison to their predecessors, is likely a pretty poor way to determine how these movies will sell on any given platform (witness Shrek 3 and Transformers taking in butt loads of cash despite they complete suck factor).
Far as I can tell, this Paramount thing is a big deal -- Shrek 3 and Transformers not being on Blu-ray will affect sales. But on the other hand, there are plenty of Blu-Ray exclusives as well. Looking at the top 10 grossing movies this year, three of them are HD DVD exclusive: Shrek, Transformers, and Bourne. 5 are blu-ray exclusive (or presumably will be): Spidey, Pirates, Ratatouille, Wild Hogs, and Simpsons. And two are neutral (for now): Harry Potter and 300.
We can't say for sure whether the 2:1 sales lead for Blu-ray will hold out, but if 300 is any example, then it is likely that more people will buy the blu-ray version of Harry Potter as they did for 300. At this point, even with Paramount, it appears that Blu-ray will have 7 of the top 10 grossing movies, while HD DVD will have 5. Unless Warner decides to pull a Paramount (and the BDA would be stupid not to throw money at them too!), Blu-Ray will still likely have an edge in the foreseeable future, especially if (and I see no reason why this would not happen) Blu-ray hardware prices fall to match the falling HD DVD prices.
But like I said, I don't really care which side wins: I just want to be able to watch my favorite movies in high def, and am currently awaiting Samsung's latest blu-ray players before I decide which format I want support. Should be an interesting year.
have you seen the making of transformers? do you know why they were all GM cars? Because they were the only one who responded and gave permission to use their cars and the makers asked everyone which is why bumblebee was not a VW because they were not given the rights.
everyone i know said transformers was an awesome movie and making over $660M world wide becomeing the #30 top grossing movie of all time world wide and still going surpassing incredibles, passion of the christ, and even the first and best pirates of the carribean.
not trying to yell at you just letting you know why they had to choose GM because they were the ONLY ones who were fully on board and i thought bumblebee looked awesome.
Peoeple who are rabid fans have to lighten up and enjoy the movie for what it is and not judge it by what they want to see and go by the old cartoon. The movie will never be as good as you want it to be in your head and directors want to add their own flair and make it their own and use their vision you know?
Also i liked skrek 3 alot more then i did pirates 3 and spiderman 3. Pirates dragged on way too long and spiderman was kinda cheesey.
just my thoughts thanks
Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I'm almost sure Warner had a bigger share of the sales in both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray.
Keeping Warner neutral or for Blu-Ray is the real test.
Ok this goes to HD-DVD fans.
Since the Viacom switch in stance....the main news coming is that Transformers and Mi:3 are your bread and butter.
I'm sorry but have you seen either movie?
They shouldn't be hailed as if there some genius groundbreaking movie.
------
And this one is for whoever thinks engadgetHD is baised.
Can't blame HD-DVD's poor marekting skills on bloggers.HD-DVD has acquired Viacoms support but I have yet to see promotional pieces getting awareness out about this.
The news is Viacom has shunned Sony....not Viacom has joined Toshiba exclusively.
Why weren't there promotional pieces ready in stores,banners on noted tech sites,promotional sales,or any other form of marketing announced to fuel HD-DVDs boost in momentum on the day of announcement?
HD DVD's approach to marketing is completely different than Blu-ray's. For instance, the HD DVD guys and I are on a first name basis, and I can't even remember the last time I heard from anyone at Blu-ray.
HD DVD has a much more grass roots (blogs/forums) than Blu-ray, which is more mass market (TV/end caps/magazines).
I kinda doubt Warner will be going neutral. It's in their interest that there is a dual format solution to the war. It called 'Total HD'.
I kinda doubt Warner will be going neutral. It's in their interest that there is a dual format solution to the war. It called 'Total HD'.
Yeah, that is very interesting.
It's almost like a second front to the format war. Sony going after the flash and the advertising to appeal to the uninformed buyer. They may be hoping that the point of sale advertising is enough to woo buyers. So, then, on the other hand, the HD dvd camp may be going after the geeks. In turn, they may be banking on the uninformed buyers to be window shopping, then turning to that 1 geek buddy that they have for advice on what to get. With the level of confusion about hdtvs (took me days for my boss to comprehend ;) in general, and then having to deal with this hd mess, it's understandable that there would be several approaches.
It's probably still a draw though for now, since I've got one friend that took my advice on hdtvs, and the other that could've cared less because he liked the commercials.
Ben, I am wondering why the new article with the response from Paramounts CO has been removed from this site. I thought it was very interesting and very relevant to todays conversations ?... (or is it here and am i just blind?)
and what does the normal consumer do more? watch TV or read blog/forum
the ppl on engadget, on dvd forum, on blu-ray.com are a minority
if all your friends read blog/forum its cause they are your friends and they like the same stuff as you, but the majority arent reading that stuff
Ahhh interesting.
But in the current state of the market as is where the average consumer can't tell the difference between 720p and 1080p I would think they would strive to make it clearer in 'grass roots plain english' there offerings.
I mean it almost means as if this was more news to Sony than it was to Toshiba.
And quick question noticeing that you mentioned that you and the HD-DVD guys are on first name basis....why didn't they have interviews lined up with well informed HD sites such as yourself hailing the news?
@Anthony: "why didn't they have interviews lined up with well informed HD sites such as yourself hailing the news?"
My first comment was going to be, "They did, but Ben just threw his notes away." But that wouldn't be fair, since his last few posts have been relatively neutral compared to some of his past stuff. :)
To answer your question though -- they did. Didn't you read the interview with Paramount's CTO...? It was very informational and was even posted here.
I actually asked them this, and my response was that they let me know as soon as they could as they were busy preparing the release. This tells me they didn't have much of a lead themselves.
Higher atach rate and MUCH lower hardware prices have won the war for HD-DVD.
2:1 in favor of Blu-Ray? well no duh, the format premiered alongside a very popular video game system with a built-in fan base. But this was only temporary, as HD-DVD started to gain momentum around June-July with their low hardware costs, making it cheaper for consumers to dive into the High Definition movie realm.
Im sure most of those kids are pissed that their favorite games wont come to their system, and they have to instead use it primarily as a movie player (which is taboo for most hard core video gamers who dont want to wear out their systems). As far as pure gaming machines go, PS3 is getting whooped by the 360 and the Wii.
Once HD-DVD players hit the sub 300 dollar range, it was the beginning of the end, Paramount saw this, and wanted to capitalize. Look to Warner to do the same, as they've favored the HD-DVD format over BD with more exclusive releases anyway...
I'd said you're definitely getting ahead of yourself HeiSt420. Higher attach rates are great, as are lower prices -- this will only serve to drive down the costs of BR players too. I'm all for that. That said, HD DVD obviously hasn't won this by any stretch of the imagination.
Last I checked, the Blu-ray version of 300 is still out-selling the HD DVD version of 300. So, not only are more people buying Blu-Ray discs period, more people are buying the blur-ray version of the the same movie than the HD DVD version -- that has to sting a little for Toshiba and co.
By all accounts, the PS3 is a really good blu-ray player -- my guess is the kind of people who forked over 500-600 dollars weren't so stupid as to suddenly realize that "oh my god, there are no games! I guess I'll just buy movies for my otherwise useless piece of tech junk." And really, how well the PS3 is doing compared to the Wii or XBOX is incredibly irrelevant to how well it is doing against HD DVD. If the PS3 is really such a bad gaming platform, the BDA should be happy: that means that more people are buying the PS3 because of its bluray capabilities than anything else, and not only that, buying plenty of bluray movies.
What I'm really interested in is when AACS is properly and easily cracked, what studios will do then. Will they continue to support HD DVD, despite have a DRM system that is almost useless? Time will tell!
To Xyzzy, there are apparently some NY Times and WSJ articles detailing the 150 million dollar deal that got Paramount to switch.
I mean really, true or not, the BDA would be silly to let Warner switch now -- just throw some money at them and call it a night.
@undawater: "I find it hard to believe that the tide is turning for HD-DVD when almost everyone in the industry agrees this is a cash grab by Paramount/Dreamworks."
The only people in the industry saying that are people in the BDA or that guy who built a BD manufacturing plant in Washington. So what do you EXPECT BD people to say?
@Ben: Very interesting comment on the "grass roots vs corporate hype" comparison. That's the first time I've ever heard anyone say anything like that and would probably make an interesting story if you felt like writing one.
Xyzzy,
You might be on to something, I'll keep it in mind. I have said as much on the podcast for a long long time, it has always been evident how much more popular HD DVD was for the online community.
Ohhh so in a sense my first was correct.
Would it be safe to say that there marketing department isn't as well structured as say Blu-Ray?
I'm looking at my stand point as a new consumer who doesn't know too much about either format but goes in the store to finally pick a format.
They decide Blu-Ray because there blu-ray movies are still on the shelves so it could be possibly seen as continued support.
Viacom failed there in my point of view.They should've issued a re-call,but that's just me.
Blaaah had some empty spots in my previous posts.
Meant to say see Paramount movies still being carried by Blu-Ray and saw that as support rather than "while supplies last."
This is clearly no small event for the Blu-ray camp. But how do you take a situation where most people were calling it over for HD-DVD by year-end and turn it into "the watershed moment that could give HD DVD the advantage"? Even if you wanted to exaggerate a great deal, you might get away with "this balances the playing field". It seems to me like "this gives HD-DVD a new lease on life" is closer to the truth.
@pulaman
If you recall, Warner originally planned to release those in time for this holiday season, but no more than a couple months after announcing plans for Total HD they said they were going to be holding off on production until '08 with no definite time frame.
People suspected that Warner knew something that we didn't, and perhaps they do but it has as of yet failed to be revealed to us.
As it stands Warner can go wherever they want. They can stay where they are, remain neutral and later decide the Total HD discs, or they could drop one of the formats in favor of the other.
IF for whatever reason Warner did happen to go exclusive, my money is definitely on HD DVD. They have been favoring HD DVD since the beginning, which is entirely understandable due to the fact that they were originally HD DVD exclusive. This is also evident through their favoritism with regard to previous HD DVD releases as there are to this day a bunch of high profile titles that have yet to find their way to Blu-ray.
With that being said however, they could make the move in favor of the short term sales lead with Blu-ray, which would surely shock a lot of people.
Anything could happen.
Wow there's too many ignorant replies to correct.. :)
No, Dave, you've only posted twice. ;)
They are both winning the fronts they've choosen too, just an hour ago I was at BB and heard a salesmen tell a customer that if you want to rent movies then Blu-ray is right for you.
Yeah. BB is the worst. I remember them telling an old, likely uninformed shopper, that she needed to get the BB extra coverage plan because, "nowadays, TVs only last about a year before they break." It was a Sony TV, too. I hope they like the way they're being represented. BB makes more money off of BD hardware--so it's no surprise they push it.
It could be argued that Sony's XBR3 is the best LCD available in the US market.
Right. The point is that BB told an old woman that a quality product was likely to break after a year just so he could sell her the extra coverage plan.
It can also be argued that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq...