The Format War is Blu-ray's to lose
By Ben Drawbaugh 
posted Sep 25th 2007 4:16PM
posted Sep 25th 2007 4:16PM
Forester recently came to this conclusion in their latest analysis of the battle to be the next home movie format. They go on to say that Blu-ray hasn't delivered the "knock-out blow" that's needed to win, and in fact has recently lost ground to HD DVD thanks to Paramount going HD DVD exclusive and Blu-ray supported studios not releasing movies. Forester believes that if Blu-ray doesn't release a player around $250 in time for the holiday season, they could lose the whole thing. For the most part we agree, but we blame the studios more than anyone else. Blu-ray's strategy all along has been to motivate people with their exclusive content, and yet here we are over a year into this thing and HD DVD still has more movies than Blu-ray. Even when Blu-ray was releasing Paramount titles, they still weren't very far ahead when you consider the shear number of movies the supporting studios have at bay. The support from Fox is down right pitiful and Disney isn't too far behind.[Via HighDefDigest]
"...and yet here we are over a year into this thing and HD DVD still has more movies than Blu-ray."
That statement is false if you include the 32 Paramount discs. I think it's a bit unfair to exclude those dics from the tally when many consumers and retailers still have copies of them.
What's the current tally on Laserdisc titles? What about Divx titles? Betamax anyone? Only titles that are currently in production matter. Otherwise, you could argue Betamax is beating both HD formats... The N64 is beating the Xbox 360... Leeches are a more popular flu remedy than aspirin... Try to live in the present.
Then lets include the blue ray exclusives we can get on HD DVD since many retailers have them.
I wish it would hurry up and play out. I'm definitely one of those in the camp that isn't going to spend a bunch of money before some sort of direction is made. I'd hate to buy a player and movies in one format only to see the other win out in the end.
Given that Sony owns a controlling interest in MGM, Disney only releases blockbusters and Fox almost none, Blu-ray at this point pretty much only Sony. If Warner wasn't supporting BD (and originally it wasn't), Blu's whole selection would be "Sony, Sony & Sony."
@ Kevin Murphy:
Exactly, so with that in mind, how can anyone actually "win" this war?? Even if everyone went over to the HD-DVD camp, Sony wouldn't just be like "Eh, we tried" and support HD-DVD. They'd still put their own movies out on BD, thus the "war" would never have a clear winner.
I have yet to understand why the Blu-ray studios have not released more movies out in Blu-ray. HD-DVD exclusive studios like Universal have been very agressive about releasing movies in High Def. What is Fox, Disney and MGM and Sony waiting for?
Crazy! I can very easily see HD-DVD winning now that Paramount has gone HD-DVD exclusive.I bought a DVD player early on in Christmas of 1997 and never worried about it. I still don't own a High Def DVD player and I own two HDTV's.
Looks like I was right. Regular consumers don't want to pay a premium(Blu Ray)for something they can get cheaper that looks and sounds identical if not just plain old sufficient(HD-DVD). My prediction:
Everything will eventually over the next two to three years go to HD-DVD (Hopefully, because I prefer that format over BD) and Sony will release as well. Why you ask? Because people will abandon there BD set top boxes for cheap and name brand by that time HD-DVD players. PS3 owners wont give a darn because there PS3s will have games by that time and thats what the machine will be used for. That is just my prediction and also, I feel like the BD drive in the PS3 is being temporarily branded as a BD player simply to stall gamers for a limited amount of time. Its like, "Hey, we dont have games out yet, so in the mean time, use the BD drive in the PS3 to watch movies and once games come out your good". Same thing with the PSP and UMD movies, they have movies but now that games are widley available, I mean, who buys UMDs religously?
-dad
"Why can't we all just Get along" Some people like Blue others like Red(HD-DVD), Why Can't we just make all Future Players and Recorder Dual Format. I'm not buying one of the things until they make a dual format recorder that can play both formats, and upconvert DVDs. I'm hoping that Hybrids win this stupid format war.
If you'd really like to pay double the licensing fees and increased hardware fees, be my guest, but I think combos (while great for early adopters) aren't the best solution, because it makes consumers pay for the Red vs. Blue disagreement.
Also, retailers in the long term will refuse to stock two different formats - they'll demand a winner because of shelf space concerns.
So the format war really is over. Paramount looks so stupid right now in the eyes of most (65%) tech savvy people. Soon J6p will say Universal and Paramount are stupid. Why??? FUNAI!!!! That's right HDDVD addicts.
Ask yourselves, Why?? Why, is Wal-mart NOT carrying the Venturer HDDVD player this X-mas. The answer is FUNAI. Sure you will sit there and try and tell me that Sony paid wal-mart not to carry it. Or that a guy from the DVD forum talked to a rep and Funai said no player until there is a clear winner(while he is standing beside a working BD demo player!) However, like it or not, retailers are siding with BD, and there is a reason. They ALL know this reason, and they aren't telling us just yet.
The most likely reason is a cheap BD player; one from a company that controls 52% of the DVD player/recorder market. That's the DVD player market for any thick headed HDDVD fans on this site. Not the HiDef player market, the DVD player/recorder market. Like it or not there will be, and there always was going to be a sub $250 BD player from Funai in Wal-mart this x-mas. Ever since they announced it wayyyy back in Feb(with no price).
Do you people think that the BDA doesn’t know anything? They KNOW FOR A 100% FACT, they need a sub $250 player out there. HDDVD fans act like they are the only ones who know that price will be important. However, it’s sick to see how it’s the last thing that you are all clinging to in a. TECHNOLOGY war. “With lower prices every day”.. Plus an HDTV is fairly expensive, so don’t give me this HDDVD will always be cheaper so no matter what BD has lost on that angle. At some point, price will no longer matter(sub $250), and that is something that you HDDVD’s fans seem to never consider. Seriously, these people in the BDA are BUISNESS people. Do you all understand what that means, They ALL spent big $$ to learn how to MAXIMIZE profits. That's why so many CE makers have sided with BD. P=profit!! The BDA has all price points covered; they are trying to make as much money as they can right now for ALL the companies in the BDA!!!! HDDVD is ONLY cheaper because they are losing; and are trying desperately to stay in this. HDDVD fans always say. Release all movies on both formats and see who wins. I say, would you have even gone for HDDVD if the players were always the same price??? I mean the technology in the players is almost identical; it can’t seriously be that much cheaper to make an HDDVD player. And being that the PS3 has driven the cost of Diodes down for Sony, I’ll bet they would supply people with cheap Blu lasers if they made BD only players. That’s is something that Tosh would have NOT been able to accomplish yet, considering they have turned they forecast down to 400k stand alones by the end of this year. IF HDDVD was winning BD WOULD be CHEAPER, face it; and HDDVD would have added some more CE support besides a $1000 re-branded Tosh HDDVD player.
They BDA has TOsh spread as thin as poorly buttered toast. HDDVD will, I repeat it will be around for 10 years; however, it will NOT be mainstream. There will be a limited selection of movies. Meanwhile, we will be playing every movie that comes out within 2 years on BD(as all studios will support it). Some in 3-D; from a 3-D capable BD player that is hitting from ONE, of the TEN+ CE makers that supports BD.!!! Get it?? BD is going no where... Worst case now, is full blown stale mate. In which case BD will still be alive and fully kickn’, either way BD is here to stay!
And will this el cheapo Funai BD player be BD-J compatible ?
@DeadPlasmaCell : Sont has sold millions of VHS players, and MGM has sold millions of VHS tapes. It is possible that one day, in a few years, they sell HD-DVD players and discs. The inverse (Toshiba making BD players) is also possible.
As was said before, the key to this war is in the hands of Warner and Disney. If Warner drops one format or Disney goes neutral, that will be decisive. Fox doesn't count, as they don't want to sell HD discs at all.
Sorry, you have hit the FUNAI filter, and your comment has been rejected due to terminal fanboiism.
Or Walmart has it's own plans for it's own HD DVD player!
@ Bill
See that's the funny thing.. When HD-DVD people say "Walmart needs to get cheap HD-DVD players, that'll swing things big time" Blu-Ray people react with "Walmart doesn't matter, Cletus and his family aren't going to Walmart to get HD players and whatnot, so it doesn't matter if they have a $150 HD-DVD player" But now if Walmart gets a cheap Blu-Ray player, then Wally-World matters again.
I have never said that Wal-mart doesn’t matter, just for point and fact. I will agree that there are some idiot fanboys on the Blu side of things as well. However, reality is reality. CE has sided with BD. Thus retailers are siding with BD. Worst case, full blown stale-mate. Either way, it's impossible for BD to completely lose at this point.
Agreed. I think that's what DeadPlasmaCell was getting at.. Sony isn't just going to give up or anything, so a stale mate, of sorts, would be the only conclusion.
The real question you need to ask is WHY did CE and retailers more willing to support unfinished Blu-Ray over finished HD DVD. It's because of money my friend. Money they'll rip you for.
So if you are the one supporting pretty much an unfinished format that it being suppported by companies becuase it will actually harvest more money from you when there's a perfectly valid, finished and quality product to match it, why in the hell would you support Blu-Ray?
The only 2 benefits Blu-Ray has is somewhat higher bit rate and larger capacity out of which neither have shown to be NECESSARY to prove better quality but more like a self-pleasuring specifications for ultimate purists and enthusiasts. 99% of people would have to pay that ludicrous obsession for perfection from hi-fi enthusiasts that are in essence a niche market. Absolutely crazy.
It's not just sony. Pioneer and Sharp have just said they will develop BD products together. Hitachi is working on a 3-d BD player. Deowoo(spelling) and others have just added BD support. Plus there are BD camcorders. BD burning towers, the list goes on. There is to much vested interest in BD now for CE to just give up on it. Just like DIVX. HDDVD may be added to 80% of BD players eventually. The HTSA didn't let Paramount’s decision to back HDDVD exclusively, stop them from backing BD exclusively. It also didn’t stop Target from slowly switching over to more BD. Sony will not be the only company that supports BD for quite some time. However, Tosh is still pretty much the only company that is working to get HDDVD out there. Wal-Mart certain isn't as they aren't carrying that venturer hddvd player.
Sad to say, but one big disadvantage BR has is region coding.
All HD folks have to do is import some of the BR exclusive titles here in the states from overseas in HD format if this really turns into a prolonged stalemate.
A disadvantage? Is that why New Line is releasing titles here on BD first then on HDDVD later. Studios LOVE region coding my friend. DVD has 6, just remember that. BD only has 3. So in this case region coding is an advantage for BD!
"Studios LOVE region coding my friend."
Yes, the only studios still moronic enough to release movies at different times in different regions of the world. And then cry because their blockbusters are pirated like hell.
Consumers, at least those intelligent enough to understand region coding, HATE this shit. As all DRM, it is very consumer-unfriendly. So from a consumer standpoint, BD with its moronic region coding and super-special-FOX-DRM is disadvantaged.
GO BLUE RAY!!!!!! DOWN WITH HD-DVD
Sorry, I'm a blue ray person. (who already bought a player)
Please post link with price of Funai player. And yes, it is completely different technology in terms of player construction. The optical pickup on Blu Ray drives are as different as a cat and humans anatomy. Yes Cats and Humans have brains and hearts, but they are different in terms of size, functionality, and well, they just dont work in the opposite bodies. Same thing goes for the optical pickup in BD and HD-DVD drives. This is the reality here, BD will remain costly to manufacture especially when companies start building what the BDA would call, Advanced players (BD Profile 1.1 and 2.0) You (BILL) are negating the fact that the average consumer will not spend more then $199.99 on a High def player, though $250.00 is a good price range for BD. Again, we NEED to see a price on the Funai. Just like most BD loyalist want to see a movie out on the market that is on a HD-51 disc before they believe HD-DVD can really handle 51GB on 3 layers and that all current players will play them via firmware update. Also, you are negating the fact that virtually all BD Players are different from each other in terms of features it supports. That to is not good for pushing a format. It only takes one time for a consumer to get frustrated with a format and cause grief for the BDA. I also feel that once the new profiles start rolling out on BDs, certain people are going to have problems.
-dad
Ohh nice the player profile argument. Post a link that shows that DVD players read DL DVD's from the start or had DTS support from the start. Formats evolve over time, even HDVD is still evolving. It's fine if you don't believe me. However Tosh has seen it's market share fall from 60% to 55% in about eight weeks; meaning that more stand alone BD players are selling even at $100-$200 more. Plead "dad" show me a link to the cost break down on making an HDVD player compared to a BD player. Then please explain why BD in always adding new CE makers, if there is no future in BD? Plus like I was hinting at before; retailers know something the we, the general public don’t. But make no mistakes about it, when these players hit, you will hear about them.
Actually you can transplant a cat's digestive system into a human. I believe you can also do it with a pig's. Just FYI. Maybe not the brain. I suppose they could eventually maybe do a heart but I don't see a cat's being a sufficient size unless we're talking a puma or something like that but I sense I've gone too far.
am gonna end all these wal mart rumors now and for all. i work at wal mart in the electronics department and were not getting no cheap blu ray players in. were gonna carry cheap hd dvd players for 199 starting at the end of october all u guys have to do is go to your nearest wal mart and ask.
Wal-Mart already made an announcement that they would not be carrying the Venture player this holiday season. It would only be sold online.
http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/blu_ray/wal+mart-not-carrying-199-hd-dvd-player-this-christmas-301471.php
the reds camp days are numbered.....its only a matter of when the blu delivers the final deathblow!
plus i dont buy any of these discs....jus rent em all from blockbuster (who doesnt use that fugly red crap)
as long as sony continues their dominance in the video game sector (once all PS2 owners move to PS3)....their system and format will reign well into the next decade
@ IronSheik:
lol I really hope this is a joke.. PS3 dominance lol. PS3 Fanboys have been using that "You just wait and see" & "Just give it a year, you'll see" line since last Nov.. And it really hasn't panned out well for them. Kinda like Blu-Ray fanboys have been saying "HD-DVD is dead in the water" , "Well another nail in the coffin for HD-DVD" and the infamous "Format war? What format war, Blu-Ray has already won" for a while now and yet HD-DVD is anything but dead.
@Ironsheik
"as long as sony continues their dominance in the video game sector (once all PS2 owners move to PS3)....their system and format will reign well into the next decade"
Hahahahahah.What a tool. Sony DOES NOT have a dominance in the video game sector anymore, hasn't for a long time now, Nintendo is FLOGGING SONY and Xbox 360 is canning PS3 as well! U need to do some research b4 you spout such crap.
PS2 still comprehensively outsells PS3 and why don't the Sony faithful switch to PS3? Because it is absurdly overpriced and has no games. By the time it does have enough games, it will be, to little to late.
On the international stage PS3 is getting flogged, and is an embarrassment to sony, it hasn't sold anywhere near sonys own predictions. It is just another expensive BR player, and it's trying to hide under the guise of a games console.
I would rather have an "incomplete" standard in terms of frivilous "interactivity" features than a pre-set standard that is already obsolete in terms of bit rate and storage capacity. And that is why I chose Blu-ray.
The HD DVD fanbois claim that Blu-ray discs cost more to manufacture than HD DVD titles, but those 3 layer HD DVD titles - which most likely won't work with the first 2 generation players - won't be cheap. No matter what format, every extra disc layer increases the manufacturing cost and the chances of defects. The HD DVD side is already having issues with those combo discs (the HD DVD/DVD flippers) and while a noble idea, they should eliminate them.
Another thing that the fanbois claim that is a defect on the Blu-ray players is the lack of an ethernet port on the first gen Blu-ray decks. Like it is so hard to download a firmware update for the players. People have been doing that on the vanilla DVD side since the Nuon DVD player debuted back in 1999. I've downloaded firmware updates for my Philips DVP-642 prior to going fully Blu-ray. Even Sony allows the ability to independently download PS3 firmware updates from a PC (or Mac) and store it on a jump drive to update the console with if the owner for some reason cannot connect the PS3 to a broadband connection either via the built in ethernet port or wifi. Yes, an ethernet port is nice, but not at all necessary for all models.
Nfinity - From the opposing side, I respect your elaborate arguments, which is why HD-DVD isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
@Bill and The Jeremy:
I really like to read your posts on here, and not just for the bias sake of team blu, but the detail that may educate others on both sides of the format war. Red camps will tell you that this site is "EngadgetBD" and most of the outcries of comments are from the Red Camp. Regardless of the content, I like to see a balance in the arguments and information brought together on both sides.
Someone who wants a $200 player, doesn't want HD. If they're that cheap, they want the $60 DVD player they get at the grocery store. People who are aware of and interested in HD media, are willing to pay a bit more for it, and not cheap out. Let's stop making the '$200 machine is critical' point. Of course, HD DVD doesn't really have much else of an argument except 'were good at bribing studios'...
They do allow for better interactive features--including PiP and Internet connectivity. Also, they are easier and cheaper to produce. Oh, and the standard is finalized...and they have more available titles...and their hardware is cheaper...
@MI
Yeah, good idea MI, let's keep the hardware at current prices and keep HD discs at a massive 1% of total market sales, that'll win the war for BR.
Who wants the dirty herd involved in our elitist club anyway, great strategy that one!
Yawn... Just said that it's not the big deal the people are making it to be. A $200 (crappy chinese) player isn't going to win for any HD format. People payed $700 or more for the first year or two of DVD for a good player, and the people who were happy with their VHS stuck with it. People who are buying aren't going to look at HD DVD just because it's cheap.
Geeze one cheap shot at HD bribery and everybody has to pee their pants.
"People who are buying aren't going to look at HD DVD just because it's cheap"
I disagree, I think people ARE going to look at HD DVD because it's cheap. Are they going to care, maybe not to a great extent, but when it's cheap enough the herd will buy just because it's "The latest and greatest and it's cheap anyway"
....And please, people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw meteorites, how many times has sony payed/bribed/manipulated/monopolized/twisted/controlled/extorted anyone, I've lost count.
"People who are buying aren't going to look at HD DVD just because it's cheap"
I disagree, I think people ARE going to look at HD DVD because it's cheap. Are they going to care, maybe not to a great extent, but when it's cheap enough the herd will buy just because it's "The latest and greatest and it's cheap anyway"
....And please, people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw meteorites, how many times has sony payed/bribed/manipulated/monopolized/twisted/controlled/extorted anyone, I've lost count.
Again, why would ANYONE in their right mind want Blu-Ray? It's so Anti Consumer. It has Double the Copy Protection, Region Encoding, Restrictions on BD-R disc Menu Creation that's worse then DVD!!! Not to mention it's not even finished. The Slightly higher Bit rate and extra 20 gig's of space has had ZERO effect for Blu-Ray movies. So Not only do you want the Movie Studio's to have control of the movies, but Control of the Hardware it's put on also. Ya, Good Idea there. Go live in Sony Land. As a owner of a large DVD collection, and some HD DVD's, I will NEVER buy a single Blu-Ray Movie. EVER!!! I would rather keep using DVD then give SONY that kind of control and on such a restrictive format. You would have to be freeken BLIND to like Blu-Ray, or a Sony fanboy. Take the PS3 out of the picture, even if Blu-Ray fails for movies, it has ZERO effect for the PS3 and the games. Hell maybe Sony will actually focus on getting some great games out for that system then.
Good points Nigel. I would still disagree, but I appreciate you thinking through the argument... Peace.
@ Bill
Your logic seems more like blind devotion to me.
And the tone of your argument makes me think you're around 13 years old. I don't mind you putting up your opinions, just don't try to ram them down our throats please.
On topic - I've been told that the DRM Licensing is causing enormous problems for the Blu-Ray camp, as it isn't feasible for small(er) publishers to buy the licenses. Anyone heard about this?
Also, I've heard that HDDVD's have features that aren't yet available on Blu-Ray due to it's lack of Java support. I suppose this means that when they do eventually support java, anyone with a BR Player that cannot update the firmware will have to buy a new player or simply miss out on the features.
I don't care who wins, as long as it's competitive and the consumer wins in the end.
My $0.02c
I want HD and I want a $100 player. Who doesn't want to save money? I have a family to support so I need all the savings i can on my toys.
I don't care what paper supports which side..i don't car who digital bits likes...I don't care who engadgethd support. I care about upgrading to HD with the product that can save me the most money. And if Disney or Fox want my money..then they better support my side.
BTW.. you are wrong about the $60 player vs $200 HD DVD player...as the $200 HD DVD player comes with 7 movies.. so not spending much over $60 for the actual HD DVD player.
Those that spend $700 for DVD were early adopter that like to spend money to be 1st or have money to waste. Plus DVD didn't have any real competition...DIVX didn't stand a chance with their pay to play discs and having to be hooked to a phone line to pay.
I know I didn't get in on DVD till they were cheap....bought a Konka for either $299 or $199 from 800.com. Pretty sure it was $299...course I was single back then with more disposible income. Now with less disposible income and more responsibilities I need less then $300. $200 is a maybe especially cpunting 7 movies...much cheaper and it is a def yes....blue ray has a ways to go before they are in this middle class families price range.
***I posted this in the "New Releases" thread, but I meant to post this edited version here.***
This may come as a shock to some, but many people still don't have an HDTV, a hi-def player, or the patience/knowledge required to sift through all the information swirling around out there to make an informed purchase. Many more have Xbox 360s and PS3s woefully NOT hooked up to an HDTV. One thing is certain, however; major broadcast and cable channels are constantly advertising their programs, shows, and sports with some form of "HD" in the title: "DiscoveryHD," ABC/NBC/CBS (all "HD," of course), "HDNet," "UniversalHD," "ESPN and YES HD," and so on. Conversely, there isn't that much out there, besides commercials for movies and the PS3 itself, that has "Blu" or "ray" attached to it in the sense of conveying a viewable high definition platform.
That said, it should be a no-brainer (I think) that as more HD DVD players flood the market at lower prices this fall, many of the folks in that "90 percent" bracket (see related post) will suddenly make a connection that couldn't be more obvious: "Hey, I get it! I need an HD DVD player to go with my HDTV!" Suddenly, the "HD" in the title, while not as sexy or cool as "Blu-ray," stands a good chance of making HD DVD the default for the family looking at that sub-$200 player. And you'd best believe that Universal, Paramount, Dreamworks, and Warner will continue to turn up the heat, releasing titles weekly until the gap becomes too big for shoppers to ignore (unless FOX and MGM get with the program).
I'd like to see retail outlets play the "shelf-space" game next spring/summer, when there will be more than 500 HD DVD titles available, with classics like "Top Gun" and more leading the way. I would think that region coding and importing only add to name recognition on a worldwide basis as well, which wouldn't be too shabby for this "dead" format.
I do agree with the article in that if Disney, Sony and the other blu-ray exclusive studios start flooding the market with hit movies it's over for HD-DVD. The 'possible' movie selection is really all the blu camp have. If all movies were released on both sides the cheaper format would win.
The average consumer does not care or even know about bit-rates. The average consumer does not care about disc size. I would guess the average consumer does not even care about the unfinished spec of BD. The average consumer would walk in to Best Buy, look at a $500 BD player or a $300 HD-DVD player, see the exact same picture quality, see the exact same movie selection and they would buy the cheaper one.
Right now, the average consumer walks in to Best Buy, sees the two different formats and realizes neither are all that great in movie selection and decides to just pass it by. If either want to go beyond a niche market they need to lower the price of the discs and lower the cost of the players. DVD's are good enough for most people so they need to do something to entice people.
On a different but somewhat related note, my in-laws have two Aquos HDTV's in their house and they do not watch ANY HD content on them. For many people it seems too much trouble to seek out the HD content or perhaps standard definition is sufficient enough.
For everyone here that just mentioned "Consumers dont know anything about bit rates,storage size,or any other crap" I commend you! It is TRUE! And that is what I tell people when they ask me my opinion about these discs. The DRM is for the STUDIOS! The Storage capacity is irrelevant seeing that studios that are making HD-DVDs have not expresed a need for an extra disc or space. Paramounts choice is familiar, as in if the features dont fit add another disc OR even in the future, they will have two versions, one with just the movie and another with 2 discs. So here it is again, people are going to choose the cheapest solution esspecially if it provides excellent picture and audio quality and has advanced features and menu navigation. Are you kidding me? Either you are a Loyalist to BD and or Sony or just plain silly to think that once you educate a consumer on the two formats that they wouldnt choose the cheaper solution.
And yes, someone asked if anyone had heard that smaller independent production companies find it hard to pay for License fees for BD, and the answer is YES! It costs more for the Fees on BD because you are required to pay for AACS and other DRM. Not sure if you are required to have BD+ now, but knowing the BDA it may be.
-dad
Sean
You do know that both HD-DVD AND BD use AACS requiring the fee to be paid by producer of both formats.
There is NO other DRM at this point. BD+ hasn't been implemented yet and it's most likely not going to be a requirement. I see this as a selling point for BD to studios. You can have the same level of protection that you get on HD-DVD or step up to BD+.
Right now the drm is the same, it has been for some time. BOTH SIDES ARE EVIL. Stop trying to make it seem like Toshiba is oh so righteous because they used a crappy DRM scheme with no way to improve it. They are still locking you out of your content the exact same as BD.
You have to be a complete loyalist to the MS and Toshiba hype machine to believe otherwise.
BD+ is a reality and will be used. And is more expensive for to make a BD, not by much, but it is esspecially for an INdie Filmmaker. But here is an article from Cryptography Research about BD+.
BD+ AND BLU-RAY DISC
CASE STUDY: CUSTOMER-FRIENDLY CONTENT PROTECTION FOR BLU-RAY
SPDC technology has been deployed by the Blu-ray Disc format, the next-generation high-definition optical disc. Cryptography Research worked closely with Blu-ray Disc Association leaders Sony, Panasonic, and Twentieth Century Fox on specifications, implementation tests, and usage rules to standardize "BD+". The purpose of BD+ is to help the Blu-ray format recover from security breaches.
Fox is on that board and yes, they are going to use BD+ starting with The Day After Tomorrow. If they dont, I would be SHOCKED. Dont get me wrong, Id love it if you were right and BD+ wont be a requirement, I mean, they just finished the spec. Time will tell.
http://www.cryptography.com/technology/spdc/bluray.html