We've heard a
few times from Netflix that HD discs are not a big part of their business and that both formats are about even. Now it seems we were correct to assume that these reports were somewhat inaccurate. What we did get wrong, is that we figured Blu-ray was more popular than HD DVD. It seemed logical to us that since Blu-ray outsold HD DVD two to one, that they'd out rent them too. But in reality it's the other way around and HD DVD is over 2 times more likely to be set as a Netflix subscribers preferred format. While Netflix subscribers can rent both formats, only one
can be preferred. The real question is, what does this mean? And is it a good thing? One might argue that people are more likely to buy an inexpensive HD DVD player and rent movies, rather than sit on the side lines; but we'd bet the red camp has a different take on the matter -- especially when you consider their favorite stat to brag about is attach rates.
posted October 4th 2007 4:51PM
"One might argue that people are more likely to buy an inexpensive HD DVD player and rent movies"
BINGO! This is something I have been arguing for months. Most normal people do not buy tons of DVDs, they rent them. So why should this be any different with HD-DVD/Blue-Ray? Fanboys on both sides get waytoo excited about sales when most people rent.
OR.. Maybe it's because all the hd-dvd'ers rent from netflix due to Blockbuster dropping their gimped format from store shelves.
Hmm... this does sound logical; now that Blockbuster, the most prominent brick & mortar rental store, has gone only 1 format, it makes sense that those wanting HD-DVD mostly have no other place to turn to other than Netflix.
But the argument that people tend to rent more than they buy seems to make sense, too, especially when prices are so high for the discs.
Another stat that would be interesting to see is this: Of all the rental stores that rent out next-gen DVDs, which is more popular overall, Blu-Ray or HD-DVD? I suppose for right now that question would mean "Does Blockbuster rent more Blu-ray discs than Netflix does HD-DVD? And if not, is that because Netflix may do more business than Blockbuster does? (This whole internet movie subscription thing is pretty cool, and brick & mortar rental places are sooo 1990's)
So while this 2:1 HD-DVD on Netflix stats are interesting, there still isn't enough information for us to get a clear picture of what's going on.
But geez... just frickin' pick a format already so we don't have to deal with all this garbage!
There's another interesting fact in that screenshot up top:
Of all customers who visited the Netflix site, the Blu-ray movie selection was viewed 2 times more than HD-DVD was. But as the article mentions, when we look down and talk about users who put a next-gen format as their preference, twice as many people put HD-DVD as their preference.
So twice as many people look at the Blu-ray movie selection vs the HD-DVD selection, but twice as many people put HD-DVD as their format of choice vs Blu-ray. Interesting. Betcha cheap hardware might have something to do with that.
People rent and people buy. The mix they do depends on several factors. Obviously income is one pro-rent factor, which would tend to correlate with the cheaper player.
Another factor, unique to the format war, is risk. When you buy a disc, you take an investment risk in addition to the cost of the player; renting has no such risk. By the time one buys 10 HD DVDs, the investment in discs matches that of the player. If you are uncertain, you don't double down.
I support HD DVD, but I can see things for what they are occasionally.
A bright side is that once folks see the risk of HD DVD diminish, sales will go up, on a per-owner basis. Positive feedback leading to the chance of a BIG jump in sales. I suspect this is one of the reasons the BD execs do their monthly "The End is Near" pronouncement. FUD is part of the BD strategy.
BTW, did I mention that Blockbuster is stupid? Or at least that their co-focus on games means they get more PS3 folks in the door. Folks who don't have much to rent in the way of games....
@Ben Drawbaugh
"One might argue that people are more likely to buy an inexpensive HD DVD player and rent movies"
But didn't Blockbuster say that they were going Blu-ray exclusive because more folks were renting Blu-ray disks than HD-DVD's? Either Blockbuster was bushitting us or your theory here is wrong.
"Either Blockbuster was bushitting [sp] us or your theory here is wrong."
...Or perhaps the story has changed since Blockbuster made that announcement. As part of their press release that day, they did mention that their decision was subject to change depending on consumer demands.
I applaud them for that; I think by picking a format which, at the time, was clearly winning, they helped speed along the format war and help it end quicker. Too bad Paramount had to ruin all that by throwing a wrench into the works. I like Blu-ray, but at this point, just get the damn war over already, I don't really care much who wins anymore.
@zk
As I pointed out in the post RIGHT above yours, Blockbuster's retail stores ALSO RENT VIDEO GAMES, so they are FAR more likely to get PS3 owners in their stores than either their online store (which still carries HD DVD) or Netflix. Or any other retail DVD rental place, for that matter.
blockbuster always had a crappy hd-dvd section, even when they "supported" hd-dvd it was never in stock or they wouldnt even bother ordering hd-dvd versions of the movie. ive owned hd-dvd since last year and i rented @ both blockbuster online and in their stores, online all of their hd-dvds always had a long wait (they still support hd-dvd online however it takes forever to get a copy that way as well) and in the stores while they were getting new movies on blu-ray they would get like one new hd-dvd every other month (roughly) so all of those stats about their customers not being intrested in hd-dvd are b.s. because they never really supported the format well... the only reason i still rent from them is because of the free game rentals in stores. Netflix on the other hand has excellent support of hd-dvd, every movie i picked they had copies of it and it was shipped, even new releases, so there you have it netflix actually supports hd-dvd, blockbuster never did (properly)
Are they considering TV box sets as one movie or as individual discs. Because HD-DVD has more HD television shows on it than Blu-Ray. Heroes. BSG. I'm just sayin' that might account for some of the increased HD-DVD traffic
Did anyone notice how it seems there are more people selecting the HD-DVD format then there are viewing them. It seems to me that you would at least need to view it once to select it once?
Yes, it does seem strange that there are more people selecting HD-DVD as are viewing.
Could be posssible depending how netflix handles these two operations.
I wonder if they have the numbers mixed up?
A more interesting number is how many people are renting Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD
Which both of these stats don't give us, at least from the first number Blu-Ray would probably be higher since I can't see one renting without viewing the catalog.
Viewing the HD genres doesn't mean much to me. I normally search for a movie title then add it to my queue. I let Netflix pick the format for me.
Can we assume that if we add the people who set either a HDDVD or BluRay as a preference that they have both? That would mean about 17k have both, 18k have hddvd and 6k have bluray.
@M.R.
Perhaps. But the those sets sell for 3x or more, so it's not that much of a skew, even if true. They deserve to count more.
blockbuster still rent HD-DVD online, so you cant say that its completely done with... Just the brick and mortar stores rent Blu-Ray exclusive... And not ALL blockbuster stores have blu-rays...
i rent hd through netflix... its great... I'd rather rent than purchase anyways... $1 a disc vs $25+ to own, its a no brainer... And if one format wins, at least i didnt dig a hole so deep...
another point, remember, once technogloy gets cheaper, youre going to see multiformat players... So if Bluray or HD wins, a lot of companies will throw a chip in to play the other format... I.E. divx capable players...
"OR.. Maybe it's because all the hd-dvd'ers rent from netflix due to Blockbuster dropping their gimped format from store shelves."
I may be wrong on this, but Blockbuster never really had HD-DVD to drop from their store shelves.. They tested it out along with Blu-Ray in select markets only and decided to keep Blu-Ray.. So Joe Blow never had HD-DVD movies to rent in the first place from there.. so He rented them from either Blockbuster Online or Netflix.
You know what, this report is interesting because Netflix actually carries HD-DVDs! Not just 1 or 2, but a full library! Now here is my stance, if you have the content people will rent it. If you have more of the other, then hello, people are gonna rent more of the other because you have a selection available. My argument is, these video stores and I dont mean Netflix, should start carrying more HD-DVDs instead of 1 or 2 then turning around and saying, oh people want Blu Ray. Its not true, people want both. And the spike in HD-DVD rentals on Netflix is no suprise since both Hollywood Video and Blockbuster carry a limited if no supply of HD-DVDs.
"especially when you consider their favorite stat to brag about is attach rates."
Actually, I think they like to brag about the lower price more, but....
Regardless, HD DVD has a MUCH higher attach rate, and does much better at rentals (at Netflix, anyway). Doesn't this just further point to the fact that most PS3s are NOT being used for movies? If you have 5x the players out there, and are only selling two times the movies, and are renting 0.5x the movies, that should be sending up big red flags to everyone in the BD camp, IMHO.
With regard to Blu-Ray vs. HD DVD sales--it's not two-to-one anymore, Ben. You never give up, though, do you? You can't just report the statistic and leave it at that, can you? You have throw in your "I can't believe it!" comment. Well, believe it. Also, believe that Fox's new Blu-ray titles with BD-J won't playing in all players--even with a firmware update. You want to talk about a gimped format? Blu-Ray isn't even finished yet--and just look at the half-assed technology they're building on. My guess is that Blu-Ray will never match the interactive capabilities of HD DVD. Not ever. Every time they try to do something even moderately interesting, they run into problems--and just wait until Profile 1.1 and 2.0 media starts appearing.
Maybe your new here, but we're not cnn.com, so opinions are expected. Sure sometimes we break news, but most of the time we link to it with an editorial.
"With regard to Blu-Ray vs. HD DVD sales--it's not two-to-one anymore"
So what is it now? I thought it was still 2:1 myself... Although DVD Empire shows that it's more like 1:1 last I checked, I don't know how the overall numbers are doing.
I think that DVD Empire numbers are completely unreliable as I really have a feeling that someone out there is entering those numbers manually. I mean if you follow the whole week purchases by their system, it keeps BD vs HD ratios pretty much at 1:1, but then suddenly a week later they update with 60:40 or similar. Very strange indeed. I mean if their system is so bad that it shows 50:50 up and down whole week and then suddenly a week after, you see completely different numbers, then I say something's wrong.
It is true, as of today and last month, Blu-Ray's lead in software sales has been shrinking. Right now by Neilsen numbers it's pretty much 1.5:1 (60:40). I say, before end of the year, we'll see 50:50 if not HD DVD taking the lead. It's absolutely fantastic that with 10 times more BD capable devices Blu-Ray lead has been going 4:1 to 1.5:1. That's what I call "WHEN REALITY STARTS KICKING IN" :)
Oh, I know it's not CNN.com. It's closer to FOX news. I'm not saying you're not entitled to an opinion. This is a blog, after all. However, when you're spreading misinformation, as with your 2:1 comment--that's not an opinion...it's just wrong.
By the way, I'm not new here. Actually, I think most people who regularly visit engadgethd have come to expect it from you. I've been visiting your site long enough to know that I'm not the first person to comment on your bias.
I get accused of being biased by both sides. Not sure what you're looking at, but every time I check the Neilson Videoscan results they are ~2:1.
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=876174
Ha ha ha.. typical Blu-boy backtracking. No Ben, you are not CNN, but you have sweared objectivity in the podcast, oh so many times. If it is what you answered to Dave, then please don't come out anymore and say how you are not biased.
I know it pains you that Blu-Ray is falling apart all over the place, along with eventual demise of Playstation 3 as the console has absolutely no chance of rebounding, not matter how low they go in price and that you need to use your exposure with Engadget to plant more seeds, but this will not change reality.
Just be at least a bit more sincere and say that you really love Blu-Ray and that it's your prefered format before you make statments that regular folks who don't really know what you wrote before and don't go around watering down the facts as you know pretty well that this issue is not a small one.
Just because I *think* Blu-ray will win, doesn't mean I really care all that much. It's not like I get paid to promote them or anything. I call it like I see it and when you're on the wrong side you complain. That's ok, it doesn't bother me.
Why does every post about the format war become a pissing match? The fact of the mater is that no one can predict the future and with such little information supporting both sides at this point in time no one can tell who is going to "win".
Well, first of all, you need to recheck your math. That's not 2:1--unless you're rounding up. If you do prefer to round, then I expect you to report the ratio as 1:1 if the lead ever shrinks to 1.4:1. Also, last week, Blu-Ray's lead was less, and the week before that was less. So, I don't know what you mean by "every time"--since it's not 2:1 now, it wasn't 2:1 last week, and it wasn't 2:1 the week before that. I mean, at the very least, don't bother linking to a source that proves you wrong. I'm not saying it'll never go back to 2:1--but, it's not 2:1 now and it hasn't been for some time. So, unless you have some more recent figures, I don't really know what you're talking about.
I think you have said in the past that you own a blu ray player but not an HD DVD player. I would say having money invested in a product means you do care. I don't even own a HD DVD player yet and I already want them to win cause when I buy an HD DVD player I don't want to be throwing money on a losing horse...and I will be spending a lot less then you did.
Yeah, I was rounding from 1.7:1 to 2:1.
Honestly, I just glanced and gestimated, but either way it's close enough.
We'll see if HD DVD gets back some of their market share, but that's what makes this whole thing interesting.
Ah. I see. You're quoting the year-to-date number. Yes, for the year, Blu-Ray has been leading 2:1. Averages are funny like that. It just hasn't been 2:1 in a while.
I have players for both formats and have HD DVD set as my preferred format. Why do I do it you ask. I'm sick of all the Sony fanboys crying how awesome Blu-ray is over HD DVD.
Why do people keep saying that Blockbuster does not have HD DVDs? I rent all of my HD DVDs from Blockbuster Online. I just rented Knocked Up.
Exactly [post above^^]. BLOCKBUSTER (along with Netflix) have always carried BOTH HD formats on their online site, and Blockbuster also still rents HD-DVDs at around 250 of their major locations throughout the USA!
And nothing prevents Blockbuster from changing strategy -again- (after the upcoming holiday season probably), and decide to perhaps bring HD-DVD rentals to even more stores, to compliment their existing Blu-ray selection.
I say this because HD-DVD is growing strongly, with more bought discs per owner than Blu-ray [per capita], and once the stand-alone HD-DVD players reach a larger base, then Blockbuster will realize they shouldn't ignore the big block of HD-DVD customers (especially those that prefer to rent the discs), see?
By the way, New Line announced today that PAN'S LABYRINTH will be released Dec 26 on HD-DVD and Blu-ray, here in North America.
If you look at the "view" numbers you get the picture fairly clearly I think:
People check the selection of titles for Blu-Ray and HD DVD and they MASSIVELY prefer the selection available on HD DVD. This is the exact reason I'm inclined to go HD DVD when I finally buy a player. The quality of the films released on Blu-Ray is far inferior to that of HD DVD. I know taste is difficult to account for but I think we can all agree that Fantastic Four, for example, is a totally lousy movie. This is true of a large part of the Blu-Ray (perhaps it's just a Sony thing) selection.
The HD DVD camp has been releasing catalog titles and generally more interesting fare. Netflix has a large appeal to people who are interested in quality movies over schlock. I have a blockbuster store less than two blocks from my house and I prefer to wait for Netflix in the mail because I get things I actually want to watch.
Blu-Ray is apparently very appealing to people who like the movies that are released in that format. Everyone else sees that HD DVD has a much broader range of quality titles. Now that it's also passed Blu-Ray in total # of released titles this fact becomes more glaring. Unless Sony can get better movies out on Blu-Ray the format is doomed.
whats with this current trend of fanboy witch-hunting? For instance, poster Nfinity is being a little overly cynical and fanatical against blu-ray. When you point the finger and cry "fanboy", you look to be one yourself, but more-so. I'm surprized I havent heard the usual "you must work for Sony."
This is dumb. I'm setup on Netflix for both HD-DVD and Blu-ray. HD-DVD is their default preference, then Blu-ray. About once a month they update their site and I loose that preference setting and have to update it again. So it gets reset to the default preference which is HD-DVD.
Still a dumb statistic if you ask me. I'd be more interesting in the ration of rentals.
@Bob P
How is this a dumb statistic? You go to format preference and then you have to choose which one you want first and then second. There are no defaults here that I could find.
I've had to reset my preferences several times now. maybe you don't notice it since your initial preference is HD-DVD, but mine is Blu-ray.
On the select preferences page you get 2 drop downs. Each drop down including Blu-ray, HD-DVD and DVD. When you have no preferences set the order is HD-DVD, Blu-ray then DVD. That's called a default setting.
Pretty much. I guess what I'm saying is if we want something to argue about something this seems the most dumb :) There's no telling how many people just haven't changed the default settings. You can still change from the queue.
@Bob P
I'm not sure what you're talking about. I use Netflix, and have never had to reset my preference throughout the sixth months that I've had the service.
Anyone else have the same problem?
I have both the HD-DVD add-on and the PS3 and have made HD-DVD my preferred format on netflix with blu-ray beneath that. The reason I did that was two-fold
1) Mainly because every dual release I've seen has been equal or better quality on HD-DVD.
2) HD-DVD is also my format of choice since the beginning.
Honestly, I don't care who wins since I have both and I own very few movies.
I will be owning one more in less than two weeks though, TRANSFORMERS!!!!
So you're saying every so often you lose your preferences and it reverts to HD-DVD? If that's the case and it isn't an isolated incident then there really is no truth to the numbers provided.
My preference is Blu-ray -> HD-DVD -> DVD on Netflix and I've never had it reset to HD-DVD first.
I really don't see any difference between the two. I did put my netflix preferences to Blu-ray as preferred over HD-DVD. This is only because my PS3 loads much faster than my HD-A1. That said, my HD-A1 has got 6-channel analog outs, so I can enjoy the new HD audio tracks without buying new receiver that will do 6 channel uncompressed PCM via HDMI.
I dropped my Netflix account because Blockbuster has online AND Blu-ray and the in store exchange. I would like to know how many others have dropped. Also, the preference selection, how long was it there for, I do not remember setting that when I still had Netflix. I have choosen formats and Blockbuster was better at delivering Blu-ray. Also, the online exchange was faster with Blockbuster than Netflix by 1 or 2 days. Both returned to the same city...
Before this I could not stand Blockbuster or similar stores myself because you had to give your DL to get a membership, which is why I signed up for NetFlix. But Blockbuster is a real winner for Blu-Ray and regular DVD because of the B&M stores where you can do a 1:1 in store exchange and the speed of online exchanges in my town. I realize the speed may differ between the two in different towns, but it's worth testing.
Do i need to mention that renting movies means nothing in the format war. Both sides want you to buy there movies. More movies that you buy the more they show a profit. So if HD DVD fans are doing more renting than buying then they are only hurting there own format from gaining money and eventually winning the war. I have worked at a few movie rental stores and the rental stores are the ones making the profit in that situation. Think a little more in depth about that stuff before anyone thinks that the format war will be decided on who rents more.
I do agree that profits would be much less if everyone rented but the rental agencies still have to buy the copies, though it might be at a discount, I have no idea.
To say renting doesn't help is false as well. Obviously buying the movies is the best option but really isn't feasible for many people.
Let's just put the stats here for those that won't go to avs to look at them. Now see at the begining of 2007 when a bunch of PS3's were sold and only like 3 games were avilable for it..by the end of March the year to date stat had blue ray with over 70% of sales. Then in April HD DVD lowered its price by $100 and and sales picked up.
As you see since April the YTD percent has slowly gotten closer and has gone from 70.4 vs 29.6 to last week it was 66 vs 34 and the last week or two HD DVD sales have been slow cause some HD DVD fanboys are waiting to buy movies on their buy date when Transformers comes out. I said this hurts their numbers but if a customer doesn't want to buy knocked up when it is released..but wait and buy it the same time they by 3 other movies..i guess it's their choice.
Day Week YTD SI
01/07 63.3/36.7 63.3/36.7 41.2/58.8
01/14 68.2/31.8 65.7/34.3 43.2/56.8
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 69.0/31.0 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9
02/11 69.6/30.4 67.7/32.3 49.3/50.7
02/18 65.0/35.0 67.4/32.6 50.3/49.7
02/25 68.5/31.5 67.4/32.6 51.5/48.5
03/04 65.7/34.3 67.2/32.8 52.2/47.8
03/11 68.7/31.3 67.9/32.1 52.8/47.2
03/18 81.7/18.3 69.2/30.8 54.3/45.7
03/25 n/a 70.4/29.6 55.6/44.4
04/01 n/a 69.9/30.1 56.2/43.8
04/08 62.4/37.6 69.4/30.6 56.4/43.6
04/15 61/39 69/31 57/43
04/22 52/48 68/32 57/43
04/29 71/29 68/32 58/42
05/06 60/40 68/32 57/43
05/13 62/38 68/32 57/43
05/20 58/42 67/33 57/43
05/27 69/31 67/33 58/42
06/03 61/39 67/33 59/41
06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41
06/17 64/36 67/33 59/41
06/24 70/30 67/33 59/41
07/01 65/35 67/33 60/40
07/08 66/34 67/33 60/40
07/15 61/39 67/33 60/40
07/22 74/26 67/33 60/40
07/29 66/34 67/33 60/40
08/05 62/38 66/34 60/40
08/12 66/34 66/34 61/39
08/19 71/29 67/33 61/39
08/26 68/32 67/33 61/39
09/02 56/44 66/34 61/39
09/09 60/40 66/34 61/39
09/16 61/39 66/34 61/39
09/23 63/37 66/34 61/39