So much for that trend -- for a few weeks there is looked like the HD DVD camp was making up lost ground on Blu-ray and even got within one percent of beating them. But, according to this weeks Nielsen VideoScan numbers, courtesy of Home Media Magazine, Blu-ray took the lion's share of the HD movie sales again this week with a 71% to 29% split (2.45:1). It appears that the
Transformers' effect wasn't enough to hold off Spidey 3,
despite the disappointing sales. What's really interesting is that there is only one HD DVD title in the top ten this week, and to add insult to injury, four of the top ten titles are also available on HD DVD, but didn't sell well enough to make the list. Keep in mind that these numbers are from last week, so
Disney's two blockbusters aren't included and
HD DVD's highly successful sale of the HD-A2 was too late in the week to impact the results, as well. The other title not included that we expect to hit the top ten next week is
I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry, but we don't think it will be any match for Disney's rat.
- Spider-Man 3 BD 100.00
- Spider-Man: The High Definition Trilogy BD 71.95
- Transformers HD 31.42
- Meet the Robinsons BD 8.82
- 300 BD 6.56
- Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer BD 5.03
- License to Wed BD 4.24
- The Shining BD 4.11
- Mr. Brooks BD 4.03
- 2001: A Space Odyssey BD 3.88
posted Nov 9th 2007 2:05PM
Well, well, well. Can't wait to see how the BD fanboys and HD fanboys duke it out over this one. I think it's time to concede that none of us are going to persuade anyone in the opposite corner to switch. "Oh, so BD (or HD) won this week? What was I thinking? I'm switching." is not going to happen. Just support your format and hope for the best...best of luck to both.
Me? I'm BD and loving it, but I won't judge anyone else here.
I don't think a blue ray is going to change their mind ... but if the price of HD DVD is low enough...we have seen blue ray supporters go format neutral.
Looks like sales weren't enough to effect year to date totals. Don't forget all the walmart sales with the new A2's sold as walmart not on neilson
Day Week YTD SI
01/07 63.3/36.7 63.3/36.7 41.2/58.8
01/14 68.2/31.8 65.7/34.3 43.2/56.8
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 69.0/31.0 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9
02/11 69.6/30.4 67.7/32.3 49.3/50.7
02/18 65.0/35.0 67.4/32.6 50.3/49.7
02/25 68.5/31.5 67.4/32.6 51.5/48.5
03/04 65.7/34.3 67.2/32.8 52.2/47.8
03/11 68.7/31.3 67.9/32.1 52.8/47.2
03/18 81.7/18.3 69.2/30.8 54.3/45.7
03/25 n/a 70.4/29.6 55.6/44.4
04/01 n/a 69.9/30.1 56.2/43.8
04/08 62.4/37.6 69.4/30.6 56.4/43.6
04/15 61/39 69/31 57/43
04/22 52/48 68/32 57/43
04/29 71/29 68/32 58/42
05/06 60/40 68/32 57/43
05/13 62/38 68/32 57/43
05/20 58/42 67/33 57/43
05/27 69/31 67/33 58/42
06/03 61/39 67/33 59/41
06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41
06/17 64/36 67/33 59/41
06/24 70/30 67/33 59/41
07/01 65/35 67/33 60/40
07/08 66/34 67/33 60/40
07/15 61/39 67/33 60/40
07/22 74/26 67/33 60/40
07/29 66/34 67/33 60/40
08/05 62/38 66/34 60/40
08/12 66/34 66/34 61/39
08/19 71/29 67/33 61/39
08/26 68/32 67/33 61/39
09/02 56/44 66/34 61/39
09/09 60/40 66/34 61/39
09/16 61/39 66/34 61/39
09/23 63/37 66/34 61/39
09/30 54/46 66/34 61/39
10/07 68/32 66/34 61/39
10/14 71/29 66/34 61/39
10/21 51/49 65/35 61/39
10/28 55/45 64/36 60/40
Yea, watching the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray people fight it out is like watching two ants fight. "No, I am one percent of the market." "Oh, no your are not, I AM one percent if the market."
I especially love the people who try to persuade people based on technical merit. Since when did being better mean you won anything? Did VHS beat Beta because it was better? Did George Bush become president because he was better?
Of course the bigger question here is what will the winner take home? Will anyone care? Or is this a battle in a war that is already over and like the audio format war that preceded it?
Quick, someone please tell me how much better Blu-Ray is than HD-DVD and where did I put my Kool-aid.
- Roger
Wasn't it neilsen ratings that contested paramounts figures of 190k? I want to see their numbers for Spiderman 3.
Otherwise, good job BD!
I'd like to add, too bad this isn't indicative of the entire market. Walmart moved tons of players this past week and that isn't even reflected.
and so Q4 begins
Technically Q4 began on October 1...
You know, I didn't think it would be this high. I'm not sure, but if the two disney flicks are selling like hotcakes right now, how will it impact the numbers then? Only time will tell I suppose.
Since the Neilsen stats are one week behind, we wouldn't have really seen the impact of the 90,000+ HD-DVD players that were recently unleashed into the wild.
We are going to see the impact of that in the weeks to come, possibly starting next week. It really is too bad that Walmart is not included in the Neilsen, as I am sure it would have a dramatic impact on next weeks numbers.
@A1
Calendar Q4 starts Oct 1. However most retailers financial Q4 starts Nov 1 and ends Jan 31.
You know what this shows... Instability in the market. The only stable part is that HD media is going up but will it ever suprass/maintain against the tried and true DVD market?
Numbers that swing 20% in any 1 direction shows that a single title can swing the stats either way means that studio support is key factor (which can be changed on the fly... I also don't need studios deciding for me so offer the movies on both damn it!). This also means that saturation on players is very low which is what everyone has been saying all the time.
We all know what will happen if all movies were available on both formats. If anything thinks the most expensive player will come out on top is fooling themselves.
Which is why I've been telling people since the beginning that it doesn't matter which format is the best, or how much the players cost; as much as it matters who is supporting which. Content is king, so people have no choice but to choose the format with their favorite movies.
4 of the top 10 titles are on both formats
sorry, meant to reply this comment to you Ryan that 4 of the top 10 titles are on both formats
HD-DVD FTW! LOL.
"Content is king, so people have no choice but to choose the format with their favorite movies."
Ever heard the customer is always right? Since when has it been the studios are always right?
"Content is king"
No, content isn't king. Nor is price king. Nor is capacity king. It all goes together in the mix. The first question is: can the consumer be convinced to buy HDM? If not, content hardly matters.
If so, then can they be convinced that they must buy the more expensive player for some reason (content, capacity, longevity), or is the cheaper one "good enough"?
Darn it, my additional comments were cut off...
Ben, it is more complicated than simply picking your favorite movie. My favorite movies are on BOTH and while I am not against buying a BD player (even without complete specs) they are just too darn expensive... Does that mean I should be lynch from HD because I cannot afford a $400+ player?
The war is turning into a Customer Support Vs. Studio Support war. Who fired the first shots at "exclusive" studio support? I do not know but I will wager sony took the first shot since they already own 1. I will support, fully, the format that does not want studio support to be included in my HD decisions because that means it is no longer a Customer Vs. Studio war.
I am not calling sony Anti consumer nor Toshiba Pro consumer but I am saying that this war might be more than just a format war. I wonder what the ramifications of this war with studio support will be for consumer in the future... other companies are watching closely how this rolls out.
@Ben:
This is the most neutral BD/HD article I've read here in quite a while. Thanks for that. It was a pleasant read, and even the comments seem more friendly as a result. Let's have more like this in the future.
Keep up the good work.
Transformers still holds onto the title. The bells are ringing BD, what are you gonna do? If every one that bought a sale A2 buys one HD DVD in the process, there goes BD's big releases. I might just go grab Talk To Me on HD just to support the eventual winner, and say I was there and I heard of them first...
Sony, how do you afford your anti-consumer lifestyle?
ryan,
I have to agree, because otherwise the success of BD makes absolutely no sense. The success of 300 BD in particular really surprises me, as 300 HD looks like the better disc with an identical transfer but more features. Is the PS3 alone responsible for this, or are people really rushing to buy $400+ players just so they can get Spider-Man and non-catalog Disney titles? Surely the HD player movement we'll be seeing through the end of the year will bring a surge in HD title sales.
Just picked up one of those HD-A2s myself and am just tickled with it. Not only do HD titles look amazing, but it's the best upconverter I've had.
No it's not that much of an issue. It is either you see the differnce or you don't. I saw the difference while walking through a store and I purchased an HDTV and I refuse to play anymore SD content on that I already have. It ranges from horrible to decent.
I don't mind watching SD on a regular TV or my comp monitor but when it comes down to movies and games I want to keep it high. But the issue is, people don't need to be convinced about HD. The people that support HD need to be convinced about what format remains dominant and that will affect the other adopters. The issue is now about content.
from looking at these #'s it really looks like the ps3 is having a positive effect on disc sales. i do not know one person with a standalone bluray player and very few with a ps3. these #'s do look good for bluray.
I wish they would release the numbers of these graphs. How many were sampled? What is the actual difference between each graph. The graphes make the differance look like alot. But, for example, on the week ended chart if the difference is only 30,000 titles then these graphs really dont explain/show much.
if thats the case we could show an exact flop in the graph with the ~100,000 more A2's in the wild.
Mitchell
People are buying Bluray discs? Have you even seen the price of the players? It's outrageous.
the whole "walmart isnt counted this is silly" i bought my spidey and a few other discs at wallsmart that week, so it works both ways.
Also, remember the Neilsen numbers do not take into account walmart's sales. The big sale (with the 98 dollar hd dvd player and the 14.86 hd dvds) all happened at walmart. When i was there I saw many people grabbing 2 or 3 movies to try out on their new player so that could be a lot of sales not taken into account. To be fair there could also be a lot of spiderman 3's not in the equation also.
I'd be one of those people you saw grabbing up discs. Since I bought my A2 last week I've since purchased 5 HD-DVD titles to go with it... I'm sure a lot of people did the same.
And actually I went to my local Wal-Mart last night and their HD-DVD section was very picked over. Chuck & Larry was sold out and they had just 1 copy of Transformers and 300 left. On the other hand, there were dozens of BD's still on the shelves. I guess it doesn't matter which format has more titles if nobody's buying them?
If Nielsen's doesn't include Walmart, it's not worth reading from here on in IMO.
IMO Walmart are setting themselves up to be big time players in the HD format, especially software sales, just like they are with DVD.
The only figures that really matter are how many the studios are selling overall to every supplier, they know their own sales numbers and how effective their HD format choice is, and it's not by looking at these twisted figures.
Why dont they include the number one largest retailer in the world?
Seems these numbers are so invalid how do we really know where the format war is?
There is no end in sight.......
Numbers don't lie.
Oh wait... :-D
Still, Blu-ray is getting a boost from PS3, HD-DVD gets a boost from loss-leader $99 sales that will create a blip in the market, but then drop back to the normal levels within a week or two.
The former is a sustainable business model, the latter is not. It's the like the difference between Apple and Dell. Apple, flush with cash and blowing the socks off the competition, while Dell cuts prices to razor-thin margins, and falls deeper into irrelevance. Price cutting too early into a new market will cause the price-cutter to lose before they can amortize their investment in hardware, processes and infrastructure.
As it has been said time and time again, movie sales will determine the winner of this format war. Hardware sales will not.
I would say that if Blu-Ray sales are in to the mid/upper 60th percentile again next week(that week will take into account the 99 HD-DVD players so HD-DVD software should be up)than this war is closely ending.
What matters in these #'s is since inception but especially YTD. These are the kinds of numbers Warner will be watching if they decide to go exclusive to one format or retailers, etc.
YTD Blu-Ray 64%/HD-DVD 36%. You can spin it any way you would like, but unless HD-DVD gets their weekly sales up effectively boosting their YTD and Since inception, I really do not see how they stand a chance.
"As it has been said time and time again, movie sales will determine the winner of this format war. Hardware sales will not. "
Do you have any evidence that will back this up? This is just as moot as the porn industry analogy. This was true of the VHS - Betamax, etc. because no alternative existed. DVD exists and its quite good on upconverting...
The MOST DEPLOYED hardware is King and Sony is currently winning with PS3.
While only 40% know about the blu-ray function or even don't own a HDTV... They will eventually find out or buy a TV.
Toshiba's $99 player is not just a conicidence... This was a test on how fast they can move the product. If they can reproduce this sale it will propage quickly. For toshiba's sake, they can do this quick enough before people buy HDTVs and figure out they can play blu-rays.
PS3 is the spring board to blu-ray... How can you say Hardware doesn't matter when it is OBVIOUS that the PS3 is the golden calf of blu-ray?
No hardware. No Software.
As has been said already, with WalMart heavily entering the HDM market, these numbers are getting to be pretty worthless. WalMart sold 90,000 HD DVD players in a day - if everyone only bought 1 movie (most I would assume bought more than 1, especially with the $14 sale), then that's 90,000 movies that aren't being counted -- or nearly as many as Spiderman 3 sold.
These numbers were useful before, since WalMart wasn't a big player in HDM sales, but they are now. And I can guarantee that Warner doesn't look at them -- they must have better insight into sales than these numbers.
Also, we still don't know whether the Spiderman 3 sales included the boxset or not... With the Sony spin machine, we'll probably never know.
As somebody else pointed out above,Walmart is kind of a moot point considering thousands of customers who shop at Walmart have bought Blu-Ray as well. It would be different if Walmart was HD-DVD Exclusive, but it is not. If Walmart was added, HD-DVD total numbers would be up, but so would Blu-Ray.
Heck, their is even the possibility that lots of PS3 owners shop at Walmart so it has the potential to back fire for HD-DVD with the sales number's for Blu-Ray being even higher. The reality is you just don't know if you factored in Walmart sales, but if it was, you would have to take into account the Blu-Ray sales as well.
why would anyone buy one movie when they're getting 5 free? I see your point, but those numbers won't happen for awhile.
ooooo THE BLU-RAY CAMP MUST BE SHAKING IN THEIR PANTS. 90,000 HD-DVD PLAYERS SOLD AFTERALL!! But wait....blu-ray movies continue to outsell hd-dvd movies across the world; 9-1 in Japan, 2-1 here, 4:1 in Europe. And guess what? 75,000 PS3's were just sold during the first week the 40GB model was released and 100,000 the week after. In Japan, the PS3 sold 56,000 the first week the 40GB was released. Sure, not all of those PS3 users will buy blu-ray movies, but you am willing to bet the free copy of Spiderman 3 will encourage people to buy blu-ray movies.......
If you re-read my post again, maybe you would understand.
Basically, with the huge spike of HD-DVD players being sold at $99 last week, if Blu-Ray is still in the mid to upper 60th percentile NEXT WEEK when the numbers are released(which will take into account software that the $99 HD-DVD owners purchased that week), I would say this format war will be ending soon with Blu-Ray the victor.
Another obvious thing that I don't think many people consider in speaking about Blu-Ray and the PS3.
Speaking from personal experience ...
I have had a PS3 for a few months now but don't have an HDTV. However, I will be buying a 52" XBR4 next week. In effect, I will also be buying some Blu-Ray's. I already picked up 300 and Planet Earth a few days back in preperation.
I am sure their are thousands of PS3 owners who are in the same boat who bought the PS3 last year or earlier in the year because they wanted to play PS3 games, but were not in the market for an HDTV yet either because they couldn't afford it, or they were in a scenario like me, waiting for the HDTV technology to get a little bit better. Just a thought.
If you re-read my post again, maybe you would understand.
Basically, with the huge spike of HD-DVD players being sold at $99 last week, if Blu-Ray is still in the mid to upper 60th percentile NEXT WEEK when the numbers are released(which will take into account software that the $99 HD-DVD owners purchased that week), I would say this format war will be ending soon with Blu-Ray the victor.
Another obvious thing that I don't think many people consider in speaking about Blu-Ray and the PS3.
Speaking from personal experience ...
I have had a PS3 for a few months now but don't have an HDTV. However, I will be buying a 52" XBR4 next week. In effect, I will also be buying some Blu-Ray's. I already picked up 300 and Planet Earth a few days back in preperation.
I am sure their are thousands of PS3 owners who are in the same boat who bought the PS3 last year or earlier in the year because they wanted to play PS3 games, but were not in the market for an HDTV yet either because they couldn't afford it, or they were in a scenario like me, waiting for the HDTV technology to get a little bit better. Just a thought.
@Eric "It's the like the difference between Apple and Dell. Apple, flush with cash and blowing the socks off the competition, while Dell cuts prices to razor-thin margins, and falls deeper into irrelevance. Price cutting too early into a new market will cause the price-cutter to lose before they can amortize their investment in hardware, processes and infrastructure."
But your analogy falls apart in regards to competition for sales of each type of product. Toshiba is like Apple in the sense that they are going it alone (more or less, for the time being, or at least this is a charge commonly leveled against them ;) ). Sony is more in the position of Dell in the sense that it has other companies making the same sort of product (at least in the case of standalone players), i.e., more competition.
However, my reversal of your analogy falls apart in the sense that Dell never worried about stepping on any other PC maker's toes WRT price AFAIK (however, this does not help your argument AFAICT). It also falls apart in the sense that Toshiba doesn't make dual-format players (i.e., Macs that run Windows). Your analogy is quite apt in the sense that both Apple and Sony make hardware AND software....
I have no idea where the iPod would fit in either analogy. ;)
I don't think 90,000+ players should be considered a blip on the radar. Those players sold are not going to just trail off, that means there are 90,000 more HD-DVD players out there to play HD-DVD movies.
These players should affect the numbers through the end of the year and beyond.
I am neutral I have 2 A-1s, an A-2, a PS3 and a Sammy 1200. One argument that I want to take issue with is the price difference. How many people posting here bought their first HD-DVD player (not that xBox add on) for less than $400? If your first player was that much (or more) complaining about the current cost of a blu-ray player is sort of silly. Each HD-DVD player I have bought cost $500 before tax and service contracts. A new Samsung 1400 is $500, a new Panasonic is $500, a new Sony is $400. This is the same price the Toshibas were last Christmas.
If you bought for less than $400 I can understand complaining about price or saying you don't want to make a large investment in Blu Ray. But its not anti-consumer by the Blu Ray companies -- thats a personal economic choice. My point is for most people here I would wager if you could afford an HD DVD player last year you can afford a blu ray player.
As far as DRM protection issues (e.g. limiting or "protecting" content) -- isn't that someting (at least theoretically) that both formats offer studios?
Lastly the 90,000+ sales of HD-DVD players was an amazing thing for the format -- but it doesn't translate to 90,000+ new households. I wonder how many people that already had an HD-DVD player bought a spare or upgraded their players? I think you will see a big up tick in disc sales, but I don't know how much.
As far as DRM protection issues (e.g. limiting or "protecting" content) -- isn't that someting (at least theoretically) that both formats offer studios?
Yes, but BD has the BD+ on top of the AACS and it did not guarentee managed copy support. 2 strikes in that category against BD (not major but notable).
"How many people posting here bought their first HD-DVD player (not that xBox add on) for less than $400?"
I gave in and bought an A3 for 156 with opening of a credit card... the closer to 100, the better for me. You are absolutely correct that just because 90,000 were sold that does not mean 90,000 increase in households. I wanted to get 2 extra as a gift for christmas for various people.
"$400 ...its not anti-consumer by the Blu Ray companies "
Again, you are absolutely correct. "Exclusive" studio support is anti-consumer. I have no support that Sony "started it" but I am suspecting them of it. When I get some more free time in Decmember I might look into the research for this...
I bought the A2 for $98 as a second player. I also did not purchase any new HD-DVD's when I bought the player. $30 is still to high to pay for a good movie. The cheaper movies I already own on DVD and dont see a reason to upgrade.
Until they STOP counting PS3 games as Blue-ray sales we will never know the true market share.
still to this very day these reports are counting PS3 games as Blue-Ray sales.
which they are not.
They are PS3 Game sales.
someone get their freaking head out of their arse and do a proper market share study.
@v_lestat
Sad. Very very sad. If hd games are counted as BD sales, how come I don't see any games listed among the rankings? Keep deluding yourself..
"$400 ...its not anti-consumer by the Blu Ray companies "
Again, you are absolutely correct. "Exclusive" studio support is anti-consumer. I have no support that Sony "started it" but I am suspecting them of it. When I get some more free time in Decmember I might look into the research for this...
Then, of course, Universal and Paramount are anti consumer as well. If it was up to me all the studios would be neutral and let the better format win!
"Then, of course, Universal and Paramount are anti consumer as well. If it was up to me all the studios would be neutral and let the better format win!"
I don't think you'll find any HD DVD supporter against this. I don't think the blu-ray supporters would mind either but I do recall the days when people proudly stated "Content is King"... in favor of blu-ray of course. I think this is still announced.
Like I said, I do not approve of the exlcusivity of universal and paramount either... but I do think that this might have been a defensive reaction to the exclusivity of blu-ray.