Think Blu-ray has it easy in 2008? NPD says not so fast
By Richard Lawler 
posted Jan 8th 2008 10:43PM
posted Jan 8th 2008 10:43PM
The Blu-ray Disc Association could be on cruise control right now. This time last year, they were already declaring victory, and while the opposition deals with key defections -- and rumors of more to come -- they're predicting 1 billion in software sales this year. Video Business reports that the NPD Group's session immediately following last night's BDA press conference confirmed many of the BDA's positive numbers from last year, but also identified possible resistance it will face in 2008 due to still high prices, confused and indifferent customers and competition from HD DVD / VOD / IPTV. Coincidentally, a suggestion for the BDA to get past this was offering a concierge service to educate customers, but we'll see what marketing initiatives they dream up to move people to Blu in '08.
Gotta start somewhere though, and with HD-DVD in critical condition, BD can begin making a big marketing push that targets the mainstream consumer who is about to plunk down for their first HDTV. With one format, retailers will have an easier job selling HD players and adding these units to new TV purchases. DL and IPTV will not be a major competitor, but their biggest hurdle will continue to be DVD.
Considering the slew of Blu Ray players (1.1 and 2.0) headed our way in 2008, including a now officially presented cheap 1.1 Korean (Daewoo) one at $199 and a Funai under $300 (also 1.1), price will rapidly become a non issue.
I fully expect Bogos and B2G1 to continue to entice people to start a collection vs DVD, as well as to entice HD DVD owners to switch to software in BR and make the transition easier.
Add that to a huge amount of commercials on TV for BR discs, plus the PS3 presented as Blu Ray player, and the amount of publicity the drama around this war has given to Blu Ray (delayed adoption, yes, but also made the name known, and associated with HD).
On top of that the bajillion of articles recently published burrying HD DVD and proclaiming Blu Ray the next gen formt for high Def ... I wouldn't be too worried :)
They only need to continue their work on educating people, and bundling BR discs with PS3's :)
I wouldn't count on HD-DVD owners to switch anytime soon.
@matt
If we allow certain videophile forums to serve as a barometer of what is to come, it seems many are, or are going purple, or are in the planning stages for either.
I'm not going to buy a Blu-ray player because it's suddenly the only option if that option is still $300 for a quality brand. My $149 360 HD DVD player still works fine, so I'll continue to enjoy that and existing HD DVD's as I wait until (if) Blu-ray gets below $150 as well, which has been my original plan all along. This is something the Blu-ray fanboys have never understood... although HD DVD might not win the format war, it's still a functional product that's mostly identical to Blu-ray in terms of capability; my start-up cost to enjoy this technology was only $150, while Blu-ray's start-up cost remains $300+. If Blu-ray wins, I stick with HD DVD until Blu-ray players are $150 and then I get one of those, for a total cost of $300. If Blu-ray loses and I had started with Blu-ray, I would be out $300 PLUS the cost of an HD DVD player. Movie cost is irrelevant since I only rent from Netflix.
For me at least, this war never had anything to do with which format was technically "better" (since that was essentially a draw) and everything to do with which format would cost me the least in the long run.
if blu ray survied 2007, im sure they will make it even better in 2008 with the many companies introducing their players, ps3 picking up in sales with the good games, further price drops, more movies on their format and so on. if they survied paramount defection, the lower price of hd dvd players, the blck friday specials and the moving of 90,000 players in one weekend, then they will have no problem this year i belive.
Blu-ray Disc Association,
Rodger this.
Anything can happen.
Although it’s looking good for Blu-ray.
Don't crack the champagne yet.
Leave it on ice.
Hard to the finish.
yes, yes vanguard. same melodrama you've posted before.
stay focused.
keep your eye on the ball.
steady wins the race.
:P
locke6854,
Melodrama is all I know.
…can’t function in the world without it.
http://www.soapdom.com/
The news stories are what is killing HD-DVD. We have more than a dozen open box units since the Warner news and no new sales. We are swamped with returns which makes it harder to sell new units to people. Toshiba should take RTV's from retailers right now until things steady. Its bad to see as many open boxes as new models on a shelf.
I am an HD DVD fan,*sniff sniff* and as much as i hate to admit it, I think HD DVD is done, but I'm not sure BR can go the distance either.
The problem is IMO, if you're like me with a good quality plasma and a good quality DVD player, (despite the fact i hate everything sony and the BDA stand for,) I cant justify the coin needed for BR, (and i wont buy a POS Chinese or similar player), just as i didn't with DVD.
The picture quality i currently have, Plasma/DVD is superb, and when Joe Schmo goes and buys his shiny new plasma, hooks up his Panny DVD player, he's gonna think the same. The difference between a DVD/CRT v Plasma/DVD is humungous, and a salesman in a shop i frequent said the same thing. A lot of people cant or just wont justify the coin because DVD does such a great job with HD TVs, and there in lies the problem IMO for a format driven by a games console, short term gain and long term pain IMO.
Blu-Ray has maybe a year possibly two to take make a dent into the DVD market before some one gets the right IPTV solution in place to leave it in the dust. DVD has always been the real war, and I do not see Blu-Ray taking it down in time. In the end there are not enough PS3's being sold to make a difference.
Blu-Ray has maybe a year possibly two to take make a dent into the DVD market before some one gets the right IPTV solution in place to leave it in the dust. DVD has always been the real war, and I do not see Blu-Ray taking it down in time. In the end there are not enough PS3's being sold to make a difference.
I hope that prices continue to fall with Blu-ray now that they don't have as much competition. HD-DVD forced Blu-ray to compete, which drive down the prices and gave us all the BOGOs they used to buy support. Right now, HDM market is so small, DVD is smoking Blu-ray. If they want to over take DVD, prices can't platu and BOGOs can't dry up. Otherwise Blu-ray may go the way of SACD/DVD-A or Laserdisc.
save hd dvd
http://www.petitiononline.com/SAVEHDD/petition.html
I have backed HD-DVD since day one and am not happy about the recent turn of events. However, I am ready to move on. HD-DVD couldn't get the deal done with Warner and an unnamed studio, the unnamed studio backed out at the last minute and the rest is history. On top of that, On-line petitions are completely worthless and it is rare that they do anything.
Plus, it is not like all our HD-DVDs are not going to play, I still have a HD-DVD player and will be picking up most likely a Panasonic BD50 or BD30 to play Blu-ray now.
Get over it, move on...
Hey Blu-Ray Here is how to destroy hd-dvd and all other competitors.
SELL BLU-RAY PLAYERS FOR UNDER $100.
Marketing problem solved. Now you just have to figure out that pesky production problem.
"EricDJ @ Jan 9th 2008 2:35AM
The news stories are what is killing HD-DVD. We have more than a dozen open box units since the Warner news and no new sales. We are swamped with returns which makes it harder to sell new units to people. Toshiba should take RTV's from retailers right now until things steady. Its bad to see as many open boxes as new models on a shelf."
EricDJ, just out of curiosity, how much do you sell your open box units versus the new models? I was in a Best Buy last night and wish I had checked. But if you are selling OB for $249 and new for $299, the OB is not a deal (considering you could get it new from Amazon for over $50 less.
We have had open box units for as much as half off retail lately. We might have to go to it again to try to clear the backup of returns.
"But if you are selling OB for $249 and new for $299, the OB is not a deal (considering you could get it new from Amazon for over $50 less."
I was referring to the HD-A3, which was $299 at Best Buy, and less than $199 at Amazon the last time I checked.
"If we allow certain videophile forums to serve as a barometer of what is to come, it seems many are, or are going purple, or are in the planning stages for either."
Why should I go purple? It is now 412 Blu-Ray movies versus 375 HD DVD movies. Why should I buy a second player for more than $300 that will give me fewer than 400 additional high-definition movies. When I do go Blu I will want a player with 5.1 analog outputs because I am not going to replace my Yamaha RX-V2500 receiver.
I'm probably going to watch about three dozen movies (and perhaps fewer than dozen in high-definition) this year through Netflix. And I should have access to most of the Warner titles for the rest of the year through Netflix. I already own all four Die Hard movies on DVD.
@hemmy
Treating internet forums as a barometer of the real world is like treating a kindergarten student's crayon drawings as an acurate depicition of the real world. :)
save hd dvd
http://www.petitiononline.com/mod_perl/signed.cgi?SAVEHDD
let warner know how you feel
whvcustserv@emsi.echomail.com
At 42" and under, the I think that we can all agree that the picture quality increase from standard DVD from a decent player/upscaler to BluRay/HDDVD is incremental. As you get larger, the increment increases.
The problem is that with 400+ dollar players, I just don't see BRD moving players into people's dens for the incremental picture increase. Now people with bigger TV's probably spent more in the first place, will notice more of a difference, and will be an easier sale.
My point is that at the "standard" 42" tv size and under, it's going to be hard to move hardware. Those people just aren't going to see the difference in the picture, and are therefore going to have a hard time nearly doubling what they're spending on a TV to also get a "new DVD player." The move from VHS to DVD was much easier because the picture and sound quality difference was blow you out of your chair different with a 13" TV and using the TV's speakers, let alone a separate stereo and a ridiculously large 27", 32, or 36" tv.
Cliff's notes: To have a prayer, they have to lower player prices, but it's contrary to their mission statement, so we'll just have to wait and see.
What people always fail to realize is that HD isn't just about resolution, it's also about color that's much more brilliant and accurate than NTSC. That's something that will be noticed on any TV, regardless of size.
I don't think anyone expects Blu-Ray to overtake DVD in the next year, or even the next three, but eventually it will. Think of it this way, in five years, BD software and players will most likely be close or identical in price to today's DVD software and players. If you could get six times the resolution and much better color for the same price, why wouldn't you, regardless of the size TV you have? It's a no brainer.
Yeah, NPD like they know the future. Why people listen to such bozos is just amazing.
Hey, I know how to make a lot of money without starting a religion! Become a media consultant, claim I'm an expert on a subject, recruit my wife and my hamster and put our name in front of the world Group and pretend we're some powerful research institute. What would be a good name, hmmm...Enderle, no, Thurrott, no, Dvorak, no...ah! I've got it!
P. T. Barnum Group.
If you want to tell Warner how you feel, just boycott. They need us, not the other way around. Stop with the petitions and the emails, they have no monetary value so they have no value period.
Secondly, what I'm seeing is a suddenly rejuvenated HD DVD market following the loss of Warner. I, like many others, are on the lookout for closeout deals, but I haven't found any because others are looking for the same. I think Paramount and Universal are looking at record breaking numbers without Warner, because there will be less competition as to which titles we buy. I know I'll buy HD until they stop making it completely, and even then I'll play catch up with what is already out. Warner may have just done the best thing for the HD DVD market, stimulating demand and narrowing the competitive forces while energizing the early adopter base intent on doing anything they can to keep HD alive.
We're not dead yet, and good thing, too. Just from a Warner defection, I can't stand all the gloating from Sony fanboys who love holding the leash Sony chokes them with... I might have to give up blogging for months when (if?) the announcement declaring HD DVD is dead comes (for real, not from the BDA).
How to save HD-DVD.
Toshiba should release a dual format Hd-dvd/Blu-ray player. This must not retail for more the $349.
Microsoft should release a dual format player for Xbox. This must not retail for more then $249.
Pc partners such are HP/Toshiba should release pcs with drives that play Hd-dvd and Blu-ray and write Hd-dvd only.
Universal and Paramount should go dual format. But not before the dual players are released.
If this is all announced at the same press conference within 9 months, they can save the Hd-Dvd format.
This proposal completely eliminates the risk of buying Hd-Dvd and provides future content for the million plus Hd players out there. Also if sales are good, maybe other studio will go dual. What do you think?
-Stu
I will NEVER buy a Blu-Ray player! If/When HD DVD is done for and I can't buy any new movies, I'll get my HD content some other way. I hope Blu-Ray ends up dieing in the end!!!