Can't wait to see what sort of strange debate happens in this thread...
Any HD-DVD fanboy (you know, an unreasonable, illogical one...not just a regular "fan") want to chime in and say this is a stupid marketing tactic? Or maybe an unfair tactic to help BluRay cheat and confuse consumers? I haven't heard the one yet about how "anticonsumer" BluRay is, wanna bring that up again? Maybe you could declare that Sony bought-off Disney? Maybe you'll tell a story about how this tour is a big trick to get parents to buy BluRay and then once BluRay has really won, prices will get jacked up through the roof even though that has never happened with any stand-alone format in the past? Maybe you'll tell me all about how YOU know the 57 companies working on BluRay are going to illegally collude to keep prices high, even though that's never happened before either and it would amount to illegal price fixing? Come-on, you can do it, be creative!
(Sorry...no hate for HD-DVD fans or HD-DVD. Just fanboys in general, and some of the HD-DVD ones have been pretty vocal and illogical here lately).
I'm not a fanboy, but I think neither format is going to be the next DVD. Both are too expensive for movies, and I think that more people will be downloading their movies in the coming years. Those that don't download will simply stick to DVD's. Blu ray is great for data, though, and I think we'll see it used for that. But I think digital downloads will be our next-gen format.
I'm surprised how many people such as yourself don't remember how much players and discs were when DVD first came out. Granted, we went from huge, ugly, magnetic tape cartridges to the much more preferable DVD disc, but the idea is still the same. I can't believe how many people are screaming about players costing $250 or $300 as "too" expensive for mainstream adoption. For the first several years of DVD, players were at least $400 - $500. I think these people really underestimate how much this format war has impacted everyone's uneasiness about buying into HD media. As soon as there is a winner, i predict adoption to grew exponentially.
I DON'T buy the argument that DVD is "good enough" for most people. If that were the case, then "EDTV" would have dramatically outsold HDTV, which is not the case. If people are going to spend the change to get a High definition LCD, you'd think most of them would surely want to get an HD picture to go with it. While the disc prices will initially remain significantly higher than DVD, I think you'll see an upsurge of rental activity, whether it's brick and mortar or Netflix, just as you did when DVD came out. Assuming the format war comes to an end, for $250 or $300, I'd bet at least half the folks with HDTVs will be willing to buy a HD player within the next 18-24 months.
It'll be interesting to see what happens.. just need toshiba to fall on the sword now...
I'm surprised how many people such as yourself don't remember how much players and discs were when DVD first came out. Granted, we went from huge, ugly, magnetic tape cartridges to the much more preferable DVD disc, but the idea is still the same. I can't believe how many people are screaming about players costing $250 or $300 as "too" expensive for mainstream adoption. For the first several years of DVD, players were at least $400 - $500. I think these people really underestimate how much this format war has impacted everyone's uneasiness about buying into HD media. As soon as there is a winner, i predict adoption to grew exponentially.
I DON'T buy the argument that DVD is "good enough" for most people. If that were the case, then "EDTV" would have dramatically outsold HDTV, which is not the case. If people are going to spend the change to get a High definition LCD, you'd think most of them would surely want to get an HD picture to go with it. While the disc prices will initially remain significantly higher than DVD, I think you'll see an upsurge of rental activity, whether it's brick and mortar or Netflix, just as you did when DVD came out. Assuming the format war comes to an end, for $250 or $300, I'd bet at least half the folks with HDTVs will be willing to buy a HD player within the next 18-24 months.
It'll be interesting to see what happens.. just need toshiba to fall on the sword now...
But you're ignoring one thing that's different this time: DVD only had competition in the form of VHS. Back then, you couldn't get movies any other way. Soon, we'll have Hi def digital downloads. Factor in a tanking economy and high gas prices, Blu ray will take years to "take off". Remember how DVD's took several years before they were widely used? Well, Blu ray won't have several years, because no one will want physical discs by then. It'll probably be around 2010 or so when Blu ray, if it wins the format war, should expect to have equal market share with DVD. But if digital downloads become the norm, expect Blu ray to have a significantly smaller market share because more people will just stick with DVD's.
well actually I mean *some people* will stick with DVD's and many will just download. I predict Blu ray will be the next DVD audio, cool for quality freaks, but not that great for the average consumer.
digital downloads will never take off. People want to "own" a movie. they want to show it to their friends, they want to watch it 5 months later, they want to have a small colelction. HD downloads are nothing mordfedf then a rental srvice. There is drm on these which means you dont get to keep them. Unless they start HDF downloadds without drm and ability to keep, I cant see blu-ray/hd-dvd failing in any way (the winner at least) because people will always want to own something to keep. And like I said, we all like having a physical copy to lend/burrow with friends. A digital download becomes very impersonel.
well mike, think about the success of itunes. People are ok with downloading their music, I don't see how movies will be any different. I recognize that CD's are still selling, but then again, itunes doesn't have everything.
jacob Digital downloading depends on the mercy of the cable companies. Right now time warner is capping bandwidth in several staes as an experiment with charging over the rate cap.
Most people get high speed internet from cable companies. I don't expect people to be able to download 24-50 gb a month for $50. Then add on 1-5 a movie for 10-20 movies and you are at a real cash crunch.
No, but I could go on about how recent data's been manipulated to make things look worse than they are, and how the people who've collected that data have refuted recent claims, and how sites like EngadgetHD are staying strangely silent.
I don't know why y'all feel like people are kooks for claiming that Sony's doing backhanded stuff, while Blu-Ray fanboys are guilty of doing back-handed stuff, just because someone's deceived y'all into thinking that adoption will skyrocket and prices will drop as soon as that darned inconvenient HD DVD is out of the way.
Not even that will cause it to happen, and it's not a guarantee that Blu will take off and get cheaper to boot.. It's wishful thinking at best. VOD, the current "good enough" attitude toward DVD, and video games continuing to outpace the movie industry, as well as slowing global economy, will all figure in.
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Can't wait to see what sort of strange debate happens in this thread...
Any HD-DVD fanboy (you know, an unreasonable, illogical one...not just a regular "fan") want to chime in and say this is a stupid marketing tactic? Or maybe an unfair tactic to help BluRay cheat and confuse consumers? I haven't heard the one yet about how "anticonsumer" BluRay is, wanna bring that up again? Maybe you could declare that Sony bought-off Disney? Maybe you'll tell a story about how this tour is a big trick to get parents to buy BluRay and then once BluRay has really won, prices will get jacked up through the roof even though that has never happened with any stand-alone format in the past? Maybe you'll tell me all about how YOU know the 57 companies working on BluRay are going to illegally collude to keep prices high, even though that's never happened before either and it would amount to illegal price fixing? Come-on, you can do it, be creative!
(Sorry...no hate for HD-DVD fans or HD-DVD. Just fanboys in general, and some of the HD-DVD ones have been pretty vocal and illogical here lately).
I'm not a fanboy, but I think neither format is going to be the next DVD. Both are too expensive for movies, and I think that more people will be downloading their movies in the coming years. Those that don't download will simply stick to DVD's.
Blu ray is great for data, though, and I think we'll see it used for that. But I think digital downloads will be our next-gen format.
@Jacob
I'm surprised how many people such as yourself don't remember how much players and discs were when DVD first came out. Granted, we went from huge, ugly, magnetic tape cartridges to the much more preferable DVD disc, but the idea is still the same. I can't believe how many people are screaming about players costing $250 or $300 as "too" expensive for mainstream adoption. For the first several years of DVD, players were at least $400 - $500. I think these people really underestimate how much this format war has impacted everyone's uneasiness about buying into HD media. As soon as there is a winner, i predict adoption to grew exponentially.
I DON'T buy the argument that DVD is "good enough" for most people. If that were the case, then "EDTV" would have dramatically outsold HDTV, which is not the case. If people are going to spend the change to get a High definition LCD, you'd think most of them would surely want to get an HD picture to go with it. While the disc prices will initially remain significantly higher than DVD, I think you'll see an upsurge of rental activity, whether it's brick and mortar or Netflix, just as you did when DVD came out. Assuming the format war comes to an end, for $250 or $300, I'd bet at least half the folks with HDTVs will be willing to buy a HD player within the next 18-24 months.
It'll be interesting to see what happens.. just need toshiba to fall on the sword now...
@Jacob
I'm surprised how many people such as yourself don't remember how much players and discs were when DVD first came out. Granted, we went from huge, ugly, magnetic tape cartridges to the much more preferable DVD disc, but the idea is still the same. I can't believe how many people are screaming about players costing $250 or $300 as "too" expensive for mainstream adoption. For the first several years of DVD, players were at least $400 - $500. I think these people really underestimate how much this format war has impacted everyone's uneasiness about buying into HD media. As soon as there is a winner, i predict adoption to grew exponentially.
I DON'T buy the argument that DVD is "good enough" for most people. If that were the case, then "EDTV" would have dramatically outsold HDTV, which is not the case. If people are going to spend the change to get a High definition LCD, you'd think most of them would surely want to get an HD picture to go with it. While the disc prices will initially remain significantly higher than DVD, I think you'll see an upsurge of rental activity, whether it's brick and mortar or Netflix, just as you did when DVD came out. Assuming the format war comes to an end, for $250 or $300, I'd bet at least half the folks with HDTVs will be willing to buy a HD player within the next 18-24 months.
It'll be interesting to see what happens.. just need toshiba to fall on the sword now...
shit.. sorry
But you're ignoring one thing that's different this time: DVD only had competition in the form of VHS. Back then, you couldn't get movies any other way. Soon, we'll have Hi def digital downloads.
Factor in a tanking economy and high gas prices, Blu ray will take years to "take off". Remember how DVD's took several years before they were widely used? Well, Blu ray won't have several years, because no one will want physical discs by then.
It'll probably be around 2010 or so when Blu ray, if it wins the format war, should expect to have equal market share with DVD. But if digital downloads become the norm, expect Blu ray to have a significantly smaller market share because more people will just stick with DVD's.
well actually I mean *some people* will stick with DVD's and many will just download. I predict Blu ray will be the next DVD audio, cool for quality freaks, but not that great for the average consumer.
digital downloads will never take off. People want to "own" a movie. they want to show it to their friends, they want to watch it 5 months later, they want to have a small colelction. HD downloads are nothing mordfedf then a rental srvice. There is drm on these which means you dont get to keep them. Unless they start HDF downloadds without drm and ability to keep, I cant see blu-ray/hd-dvd failing in any way (the winner at least) because people will always want to own something to keep. And like I said, we all like having a physical copy to lend/burrow with friends. A digital download becomes very impersonel.
well mike, think about the success of itunes. People are ok with downloading their music, I don't see how movies will be any different. I recognize that CD's are still selling, but then again, itunes doesn't have everything.
jacob
Digital downloading depends on the mercy of the cable companies. Right now time warner is capping bandwidth in several staes as an experiment with charging over the rate cap.
Most people get high speed internet from cable companies. I don't expect people to be able to download 24-50 gb a month for $50. Then add on 1-5 a movie for 10-20 movies and you are at a real cash crunch.
@Jacob:
No, but I could go on about how recent data's been manipulated to make things look worse than they are, and how the people who've collected that data have refuted recent claims, and how sites like EngadgetHD are staying strangely silent.
I don't know why y'all feel like people are kooks for claiming that Sony's doing backhanded stuff, while Blu-Ray fanboys are guilty of doing back-handed stuff, just because someone's deceived y'all into thinking that adoption will skyrocket and prices will drop as soon as that darned inconvenient HD DVD is out of the way.
Not even that will cause it to happen, and it's not a guarantee that Blu will take off and get cheaper to boot.. It's wishful thinking at best. VOD, the current "good enough" attitude toward DVD, and video games continuing to outpace the movie industry, as well as slowing global economy, will all figure in.