But you're ignoring one thing that's different this time: DVD only had competition in the form of VHS. Back then, you couldn't get movies any other way. Soon, we'll have Hi def digital downloads. Factor in a tanking economy and high gas prices, Blu ray will take years to "take off". Remember how DVD's took several years before they were widely used? Well, Blu ray won't have several years, because no one will want physical discs by then. It'll probably be around 2010 or so when Blu ray, if it wins the format war, should expect to have equal market share with DVD. But if digital downloads become the norm, expect Blu ray to have a significantly smaller market share because more people will just stick with DVD's.
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But you're ignoring one thing that's different this time: DVD only had competition in the form of VHS. Back then, you couldn't get movies any other way. Soon, we'll have Hi def digital downloads.
Factor in a tanking economy and high gas prices, Blu ray will take years to "take off". Remember how DVD's took several years before they were widely used? Well, Blu ray won't have several years, because no one will want physical discs by then.
It'll probably be around 2010 or so when Blu ray, if it wins the format war, should expect to have equal market share with DVD. But if digital downloads become the norm, expect Blu ray to have a significantly smaller market share because more people will just stick with DVD's.