http://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/ Engadget HD Comments for 33 million US homes could stream HD media in 2012 http://hd.engadget.com/media/feedlogo.gif http://hd.engadget.com en-us Copyright 2009 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/]]>Mar 10th 2008 2:52AMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/Mar 10th 2008 6:51AMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/Mar 10th 2008 9:04AMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/
The problem isn't as simple as the pipes. There's the servers too. And that doesn't; even begin to touch the crappy selection.

I'm won't be giving up my Netflix membership anytime soon.]]>Mar 10th 2008 9:27AMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/Mar 10th 2008 9:33AMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/
DRMed downloads FTW!!!!!!!



Not.]]>Mar 10th 2008 11:12AMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/
I'm just giving a reality check. All these breathless predictions on blogs of how faster pipes are going to be the holy grail of digital downloads look like a whole lot of wishful thinking to me. Look at music. It's been 9 years since Napster and 5 years since the iTunes store began and we STILL sell 75% of all music in physical form. Video downloads are in their infancy at best. How is video going to take over its physical counterpoint in just a few years if music has not been able to do it in almost 10?

The issue is a lot more complex than the downloads-have-already-made-physical-media-irrelavent evangelists will admit. The pesky details are what make or break a new format. And there are a lot of pesky details to solve with video downloads.

Movie studios have to be willing license ALL their media (not just 400 or 500 movies) to make the service be attractive. Then we have nasty DRM issues to deal with. Not to mention bandwidth problems, even with the advent of more people having high speed internet. And to top it off we have storage and backup issues if people are supposed to buy HD content over the web. Even if TB drives become the norm will mainstream consumers bother with all that mess? And how can you convince consumers to buy a movie from iTunes or Vudu, etc if that movie is tied to one manufacturer's hardware? A disc you buy will play on dozens of manufacturer's boxes. If vudu goes out of business you can't use your expensive box to buy any more movies.

Video downloads will be the norm someday but its not going to happen in 2 years. I bet it will take at least 10-12 years for it to dominate physical delivery systems.

]]>Mar 10th 2008 12:19PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/
If some where to explain all the limitations Netflix puts on the consumer you would be hard pressed to convince them it was better than just going to the store and buying a movie.

1. Your top movie may or may not come to you next after you send in a movie
2. You may not get new movies on the day they are released.
3. If you watch a lot of movies Netflix may throttle your service down.

People tend to overlook these things because at the end of the day the service Netflix is compelling enough to ignore the issues. Digital Downloads will succeed when people perceive the value of the service tops the issues involved with it. Digital Downloads are fine it is just the service isn't there yet.

Btw Itunes is the number 2 retailer of music in the United States. I think that is a great success story if you ask me.

]]>Mar 10th 2008 2:43PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/
Well actually you can get around it very easily, but even if you are going to stay squeaky clean you can still pick up a disc and loan it to a friend or ring it to to someone's house. DRM can't stop that (but Apple TV or Vudu can). Hence the beauty of a "format" as opposed to a vertically integrated service through a single company. I think the lack of an industry format is this is the biggest flaw of downloads. People may rent under these limitations (and even then there still isn't that much to rent), but they won't buy any downloads until they are convinced that they will still be able to still play them when their hardware dies or a company goes under. Google Video is an excelent example. We can;t make the business work and poof.... everything you bought from us no longer functions.

"If some where to explain all the limitations Netflix puts on the consumer you would be hard pressed to convince them it was better than just going to the store and buying a movie."

Sure, if money is no object knock yourself out. But even my local Best Buy and Borders don't carry all the movies I want to rent. Its all about the selection and Netflix knows this. You may have to wait a day or two, but compared to the absolute LACK of selection on all downloadable and VOD services I'd say that is a mighty big selling point. Content is king.

"Btw Itunes is the number 2 retailer of music in the United States. I think that is a great success story if you ask me"

It sure is. I love iTunes. But number 2 does not equal a majority. In fact all legally downloadable music represents less that 10% of all music sold. And if this is where music is at after 5 years of legitimate online sales, just imagine how long its going to take the movie studios to get their act together and do downloads right?

Downloads will happen but I predict the road to get there will be a lot longer and a lot more painful than many in the blogosphere like to believe. The threat of downloads killing physical media in the next 10 years is highly unlikely given how many parties are involved and how little they are willing to cooperate with one another. Sluggish studios who don't want to piss off their current business partners combined with bandwidth limitations combined with severe DRM restrictions combined with service providers who want to keep everything inside their little walled gardens means downloads have a hell of a lot more hurdles to overcome than just rolling out some fiber.]]>Mar 10th 2008 8:48PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/Mar 10th 2008 10:33PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/
1. Yes, you can get around it, but that very act makes it illegal. The illegality of it makes the process of getting around the DRM an annoyance.

2. It would cost you a fortune if you watched a bunch of movies, but if you only watch one or two movies a month or every other month Netflix becomes less appealing.

3. I didn't mean that downloads will kill the physical medium, but getting a sizable portion of the audience will not take decade if the right service come into play. ]]>Mar 11th 2008 9:11AMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/03/10/33-million-us-homes-could-stream-hd-media-in-2012/"I'm just giving a reality check. All these breathless predictions on blogs of how faster pipes are going to be the holy grail of digital downloads look like a whole lot of wishful thinking to me. Look at music. It's been 9 years since Napster and 5 years since the iTunes store began and we STILL sell 75% of all music in physical form."
WTF?!?!?! where the hell did you source this BS? Its very WELL known that CD sales are in the dumper and are continuing to die. ITUNES is eclipsing nearly every retailer in sales volume (I believe Apple is #2 now behind friggin Walmart) and did this in record time. So you arguement is moot on that issue. As far as download speeds, you can start viewing most vids as they are downloading so who cares, and bandwidth is getting better all the time. HD did the impossible, actually offered a technology consumers werent ready for and dont think they need/want. HD might be better but consumers arent biting.]]>Mar 17th 2008 9:15AM