There's been a lot of press about how
Blu-ray players sales are disappointing right now, with everyone expecting sales to go up after
HD DVD threw in the towel. The problem is that HD DVD just recently went belly up and anyone who followed the format war knows that this could be the worst time since Blu-ray was released to buy a Blu-ray player. This is because the
latest Blu-ray titles are finally taking advantage of the latest audio codecs and the latest interactive features, but the players that are currently available are not only unable to take advantage of the latest features, but also cost more than the next generation that is due relatively soon. So while it's fun to say the reason people aren't buying is because DVD is good enough, or because the cost is too high; we prefer to think that consumers are smart enough to know that it's better to wait a month or two for the full featured, less expensive players.
posted May 2nd 2008 11:40AM
I am perfectly content with the functionality of my Sony BDP-S300. Unfortunately, having stepped down from an ES level DVD player, the analog audio performance and build quality made me want to cry. I'm saving my pennies for a BDP-S2000ES. With no word on new ES players on the horizon, my choice is pretty clear.
That said, I am a Sony fan boi of staggering proportions, so I am far from objective. (Still waiting for the big SACD comeback of 2007...errr 2008...uhhh,,,2009?)
Is it possible that people might slip BD altogether if they can stream HD content via their Apple TV (etc)? I know the resolution isn't quite up there yet, but it will be soon surely.
Discuss.
It's been discussed to death already.
{Up to} a 50GB Blu-ray disc vs. a 5-8GB compressed movie via Apple TV (or Xbox 360 or VUDU)?
Hmmmm, I don't know....
Its certainly not unthinkable. The iTunes store's current dominance, in spite of low quality bit-rates, is proof that you don't need to have the best quality to become the market leader.
But its not the resolution thats the real hurdle. Its the SELECTION.
And since there are a dozen or so boxes with competing proprietary formats right now (Vudu, Apple TV, Xbox, PS3, Comcast set top boxes, TiVo and Amazon Unbox, etc) studios are proceeding with caution and are unwilling to unleash their entire catalogs. Which means you can get some movies on one service but not on others, etc. If Sony dvd players only played Sony and Columbia DVD's and Toshiba players only played Universal and Disney DVD's, etc DVD's would have been nothing more than curiosities for early adopters and geeks. That is what we have right now with these services.
These walled gardens have to be opened up and a single standardized digital format has to be adopted for digital downloads and streaming to become mainstream.
I have a PS3 now. I'm waiting for the DMP-BD50 for my first standalone.
HD-DVD owner here.
Ben is spot on for me.
I'm not buying a current gen player because I want the functional equivalent of my HD-A3 -- internal next-gen audio support and online interactivity. The upcoming Sony S550 and the Panasonic BD50 are the first players that fit the bill (other than the PS3, but methinks I'll pass on that until I see the standalones).
I think many, many people in the socio-economic position to be interested in HDM in the first place know the score right now (check AVS forum if you doubt). The current lull in sales has less to do with the "inherent flaws" of the BD platform than it does with general awareness that the current players will soon be relegated to obscolesence. A number of my friends and relatives are in the same position: why buy the current expensive junk when cheaper, better products are slated for launch in the next quarter? There's no rush.
"consumers are smart enough to know that it's better to wait a month"
Consumer savvy has almost zero to do with it. Most people don't know the difference bewteen codec and duradek. If they're interested, they're walking into a BestBuy and a salesman is selling them whatever technology he has on hand. People aren't buying because they aren't looking.
Looking at the 1.0 vs. 1.1 vs 2.0 chart on wikipedia, it's clear to me that 1.1 is perfect (for me). It can handle all of the disc-based extras, but no online stuff. Right now I just want a gorgeous picture, and occasionally some extras to play with. I picked up the Panasonic BD-30 and haven't looked back. It bitstreams all of the current and new audio formats, and has an SDHC slot for expandable storage. It also reacts to button presses fast enough to keep me from getting antsy. I'm not an idiot, I've just been waiting for a HD disc format since I bought my HDTV in 2001. I never expected my player to be network connected, so I'm certainly not going to miss it now. Just bring on the movies.
The problem is that your player is still the exception - most BD players are 1.0 only, and can't be upgraded because they lack the appropriate hardware to go to 1.1.
All they have to do is alter BD+ in a significant manner (which is what it was designed to do afterall) and profile 1.0 & 1.1 players are up poo creek without a paddle.
A PS3 is an excellent future proof blu ray player. If you absolutely must have some network enabled interactive content buy that and benefit from an excellent console and multimedia player while you're at it. Or wait a month or so because several other 2.0 players are appearing shortly.
Alternatively just buy a 1.1 player. With a raft of new players appearing shortly including some no-names, the prices on the older models are due for a price drop.
I am incredibly amazed at how stupid people are with all these "predictions"
Did DVD overtake VHS overnight? NO and bluray wont do the same to dvd. Im just incredibly mind boggled how many people are calling bluray a failure because it hasnt already defeated and overtaken dvd. Just dumb.
Oh well, Im glad that we still have guys like Nfinity and Truth Teller around so that we can be reminded of how stupid some people really are.
Um, you shouldn't talk about Truth Teller and Nfinity that way if you insist on comparing Blu-ray/DVD to DVD/VHS.
Supply is ALSO an issue - I work for an electronics distributor, and we can't get any players in, as the manufacturers are back-logged. Several local dealers have reported that Best Buy and Circuit City are ALSO out of Blu-Ray players (other than the PS3).
PRICE. PRICE. PRICE!!
What is some one at Engadget pissed because there beloved A2 is now going to sit like a brick.. Toshiba got out gunned and out marketed, sure they might have been a few years of Blu-Ray, well no shit they had a year head start! Plus the consumers were not ready and didn't even adopt it, even when Toshiba had a fricking head start, they should have put the nail in the coffin long before Blu-Ray came to market, but they couldn't close the deals with the studios and other manufactures sure where not on board either..
Toshiba didn't get outgunned, they got out marketed. Their marketing tactics couldn't give away an Easter egg full of money on any given Easter Sunday.
BluRay (and their manufacturers) need to get their shi* together. This various generations crap is not working. Get your stand-alone players in line with what the average consumers want. Get off of your high-horse and get back to business. There is blood in the water and these BluRay sharks are acting like guppies in a sandbar. Get back to business! Get aggressive!
Make the consumers WANT to buy BluRay. Give them reasons (price but most of all, quality) to abandon standard DVD. Tell the studios to release worth-while movies, not Cinema flops. Studios are not helping the issue. They have part of the blame as well.
My dollars are waiting.
Toshiba had a significant advantage - they were the sole dictator and implementor of the format. They didn't have to sit in committee deciding features. They didn't have the usual bullshit that comes when major CEs come together to define a format. They didn't have to write a spec that dotted every i and crossed every t so someone else could implement it.
By contrast the BDA has to define a standard that everyone can implement and fight off stupid or superfluous features. That has to be much harder to get going. Its not one implementation but multiple implementations. Hence the non-optimal concept of profiles to push out certain features to focus on the core ones.
But profiles 1.1 and 2.0 are here, stable and consumers should have no trouble telling them apart - if you don't need internet then a 1.1 player will do. If you do then get a 2.0 player. If all things are equal go for the higher profile.
At the end of the day, the consumer is much better off from an industry wide standard, not a monopoly. The range of models as well as competition allows consumers to choose a model with the price, features and performance to suit their needs.
Ben, If only the average consumer were that smart and thought that way.
I say this as a Blu-Ray owner...I really think most people can’t see the difference between Blu-ray and upconverting DVD players. Let's be honest, unless you have a quality TV and speaker system, there's no reason to go Blu-Ray. VHS to DVD was a HUGE jump in both video and audio quality, no matter what tv/speakers you had at home. Blu-Ray really isn't that much of a jump over DVD to warrant paying a premium. The cheap tv from Wal-Mart isn't going to make anything look good, nor will the cheap HTIB make it sound good. Not to mention that your average consumer really doesn't understand Blu-Ray or is completely clueless to the whole situation.
I whole-heartedly disagree with Ben's conclusion. Consumer's aren't waiting for lower prices and the next-gen players. That conclusion assumes that consumers are tech-educated, which they aren't.
Anybody with an HDTV will want an HD Blu-ray player, when the price is right. Why wouldn't they? It will be backward compatible with their DVD collection, and offers them the option of choosing a much higher quality experience for future purchases.
Of course Joe 6-pack won't jump in for a few years, but so what? It's not like Blu-ray is going to disappear in the next decade, regardless of what the usual naysayers around here wish. Let's look at these numbers in two years, when it really matters. That's when we'll really know whether Blu-ray will be niche or has a chance at becoming mainstream.
The format just isn't built to go mainstream. The CE companies who supported Blu-Ray are getting exactly what they deserve. They went with a format that they could use to charge customer more. It is not surprising that the only people who care about Blu-Ray now are av snobs and game players. Blu-Ray is not what its cracked up to be. The sales are now showing that pie charts don't mean dominance.
This post is here for 1 thing, to generate traffic via bashing back and forth. I see very little constructive agruments which is why I'm choosing to stay out of it.
I took my A2 back to Walmart and will enjoy my Popcorn Hour until this whole mess straightens out. Hopefully I just won't get arrested for downloading stuff.
I was also thinking about putting together a 780g based HTPC with a dual format drive. But it doesn't make all that much sense now that I have the Popcorn Hour. I think I just need some more disk space.
Engadget, your reasoning is wrong. You and your readers know about Blu-ray's features and whatnot, but Joe Public is not waiting for full-featured players. To most people, DVD is just fine, and it's going to be a long time until Blu-ray offers competition, if ever. Hell, many people (I'd even venture to say "most") have never even heard of Blu-ray.
at this point, who ever wanted a blu ray player, got one already. thats the only explanation...
not the same old its inferiour, expensive, blah blah blah bullshit...
Once the following players hit retail it will be an ALL TOGETHER different story:
Panasonic DMP-BD50 Blu-ray Player Profile 2.0 debuts May 01, 2008
Sharp BD-HP50 Blu-ray Player Profile 1.1 debuts Q2 2008
Marantz BD8002 Blu-ray Player Profile 1.1 debuts Q2 2008
Sylvania NB500SL9 Blu-ray Player Profile 1.1 debuts April 30, 2008
Philips BDP7200 Blu-ray Player Profile 1.1 debuts April 2008
Sony BDP-S350 Blu-ray Player Profile 1.1 debuts Summer 2008
Pioneer BDP-05FD Blu-ray Player Profile 1.1 debuts July 18, 2008
Samsung BD-P1500 Blu-ray Player Profile 1.1 debuts June 2008
Panasonic DMP-BD50 Blu-ray Player Profile 2.0 debuts May 01, 2008
Sony BDP-S550 Blu-ray Player BD-Live Profile (2.0) Fall 2008
Daewoo DBP-2000 Blu-ray Player BD-Live Profile (2.0) Debuts Q3 2008
THERE WILL BE $200 BLU-RAY PLAYERS IN 2008
Once the next wave of profile 1.1 players hit retail [this month May 2008] all remaining profile 1.0 players will begin to be discounted to make room / shelf space.
The minute profile 2.0 players reach retail all profile 1.0 & 1.1 players will be discounted and remain discounted until all stock has been exhausted.
After that all players will be 2.0
[END OF STORY]
nfinitard & truth teller HAVE A NICE DAY
Quite. There are a substantial number of new players coming out in the next month as well as a massive set of releases lined up for June. The current models are bound to get bumped down as well as other promotions.
I would not be surprised if there with be an enormous marketing campaign for Blu Ray to go with this glut of software and hardware.
Isn't it obvious why BR players aren't selling? IT'S THE PRICE!!
HD-DVD was affordable, Bluray is not. Simple as that.
I would love to have HD dvd playback and I had HD-DVD player. I simply cannot afford a Bluray player even though I want one.
IT'S SIMPLY THE PRICE AND NOTHING ELSE. I said this months ago.
It shouldn't be a big surprise to anyone that Bluray players weren't going to fly off the shelves simply because they won the format war! Duh!
In my opinion, price has always been a factor. Another would be how the vast consumer deem as if the machine is "user friendly." Most people probably don't understand or comfortable with hi-def tech stuff so they may have put off putting down a big chunk of money to get something they may not fully understand on how to use it.
As for me, if it weren't for the PS3, I most likely will not be an early adoptee of the Blu-ray format for quite some time. I'm looking to invest in a stand-alone player unit but I'm definitely waiting until all the kinks are ironed out.
Just my two cents.
"Panasonic DMP-BD50 Blu-ray Player Profile 2.0 debuts May 01, 2008"
I went out yesterday and bought a Panasonic BMP-BD50 yesterday... Oh wait a minute that player is weeks/months away from being released.
I work for one of the biggest broadcaster in Canada. Needless to say that a lot of my co-workers are really into DVD, console gaming and HD. We're tv nuts.
But only a handful use a pvr and even less have HDTV. The one guy I know who has Blu-ray owns a PS3. He just bought "Planet Earth" and thinks it looks amazing but was VERY expensive !
We gave away a Sharp LCD and a (crappy) Sharp Blu-ray player a few months ago and no one in our sales department knew what Blu-ray was.
So Joe SixPack is probaly even less interested in Blu-ray. Joe needs his cheapo player. My local Wal-Mart has a 450$ Sony Blu-ray on display (playing the same demo over and over) but no one seems to look at it. If they two, the price turns them off. I heard a guy saying "it'll sell for 100$ in a year or so". Customers are more interested in the discount DVD bin.
As for us true HD fans, we belong to two camps: I'm in the high-end side and I want my player to be the most up-to-date (without paying Denon prices...) possible.
So, no: no one in their right mind would buy a player now. Until cheapo low-price "stable" players and "decode everything profile 2" players are here, we'll keep our money in our pocket.
The point is that, because Blu-ray won the HD format war, we all have to wait even longer for full HD acceptance and market penetration because Blu-ray was already that far behind technologically and too expensive.
Blu-ray is working against itself, if it wants more people to have players, lower the prices, LIKE HD-DVD did! How are Blu-ray players different other than the color of the laser? Are the insides made of gold? Do they really have to cost that much more?
* quote
ShadowGod
How are Blu-ray players different other than the color of the laser? Are the insides made of gold? Do they really have to cost that much more?
=====================================================
It's not just the laser itself, the whole drive mechanism is of a higher spec & has to be much more precise = much more expense
(especially while production numbers are low).
It's because Blu-ray operates with smaller pits (which is how come it had the capacity advantage).
That's why the Blu-ray drive is necessarily and inherently much more expensive than the SD DVD option
(or it's very near cousin HD DVD).
So much for all the Blu-ray fanclub comments that a single format would unleash a vast tide of prospective high def buyers out there who were supposedly just itching for the format war to end and assure them they weren't buying into a failed format.
LMAO
Blu-ray is about as dead as it gets, only the PS3 is keeping the corpse warm.
They reckon on being PS3 reliant until 2013!?
Anorther 5 years!?
Too late.
Within 2 - 3yrs the next format (with genuine mass-market appeal) will be up and running and rendering it all a pointless old-fashioned & expensive waste.
HD DVD could have done it (cos it would have been quick enough) with a settled spec, the Twin Disc & the combo disc (not leaving anyone behind if the entire movie disc industry had gone HD DVD) & prices starting @ the $100 level...... had it been given the chance (and not killed off by backroom dealing).
But that was then....
This is now & now Blu-ray doesn't stand a hope with players at $300 - $400 and on up.
.....and good luck with those $200 Daewoo pieces of sh!t
FFS that has to be a joke.....and a killer hilarious one at that
(don't any of you guys know the 1st thing about Daewoo!?)
That is of course if they ever arrrive - seeing as Denon were having major problems getting their much delayed extremely expensive = using the best components, profile 2.0 player to market I really doubt the wisdom of buying a real bottom-feeder piece of cr@p like a Daewoo.
(At least the Chinese HD DVD players all used - and basically were - the Toshiba HD A3 with a rebadge.
F*ck knows what that Daewoo is going to be.
Blu-ray haven't even licenced a 'reference design' to China or Korea yet!)
Wow, the consumer really won out on this one!!!!
The format with multiple standards and higher prices managed to kill off the format with one completed standard and lower prices.
Whew, I was scared for a moment there.
LOL. Exactly.
The only people waiting to buy new compatible players are geeks in the know, the general public has no idea
J6 hasn't even heard of blu ray yet, and when he does and sees the prices and realizes the small step that it really represents, J6 will stick with DVD.
It's time for all the BS excuses to stop, if BR is serious about sales they have to get serious about pricing.
Throw away the shaver for free and buy the blades has been the motto for many a company, the problem is this arrogant greedy cartel wants to double dip and they have always thought the public was stupid enough.
BR is reaping what it has sewn, if it does not address pricing shortly it is going the way of the rest of sonys proprietary disasters, simple.
Perhaps you haven't heard but the razor blade model doesn't work with an industry standard. What incentive is there for Samsung (for example) to subsidize its players? Why should it subsidize its players anyway?
The blazingly obvious reason blu ray players appear "expensive" is because their price reflects the cost of developing, manufacturing, shipping the player plus a profit margin. They're not any more expensive than HD DVD to make. Toshiba tried the razor blade model and it was disastrous. Its no wonder the BDA prefer to let market forces drive costs down. Which is the way it should be.
C'mon Zym, stop being such a fan girl, the reason BR is tanking is because the greedy bastards are more interested in price gouging then results, deliberate gouging with specification changes and the noose they have put around their own necks with the cost of production of blu ray and the cost of all the shady deals that were done to lock out the for the competition.
HD media should have been a cheap and simple step forward eg HD DVD, not this outrageously expensive format controlled by a Japanese cartel, all designed to fleece the public by stupendous overcharging at every step of the process.
There is no need for the ridiculous pricing we see today, BR should have been a small evolutionary step from DVD, BR should have been a simple reason for the masses to change hardware and software at close to current DVD pricing because, lets face it, the differences are minimal.
10 years into DVD, this small step should not represent a 'major' hike in pricing but an incremental amount with reference to the incremental step forward. BR IS NOT A NEW FORMAT but a small extension to DVD, and all the muppets comparing this to VHS/DVD are fools!
Blu ray deserves to tank for its arrogance in assuming the public was so stupid they would blindly pay whatever sony said they should, and don't say they didn't say that, it's own the record that a senior sony exec said just prior to the PS3 that the public would pay whatever sony decided to charge , just because it's a sony.
I sincerely hope BR tanks, it deserves to for its ignorance and arrogance.
HD4ME, Blu Ray isn't tanking, and HD DVD was no cheaper to make than Blu Ray. Why are you having such difficulty understanding this?
HD DVD and Blu Ray have virtually identical hardware and software requrements and the prices are therefore the same. HD DVD sure as hell was not a "cheap and simple step forward" and it's bizarre to hear such such a ludicrous statement.
Perhaps you should go and look at Toshiba's quarterly losses if you are having trouble understanding that they heavily subsidized their players. Slashing prices was one of the few ways they could differentiate their product from Blu Ray and it proved to be a costly failure.
Xym, the Toshiba model IMO opinion was the correct one.
Build a quality finalized spec player, subsidize the price initially and make your money long term on the disc licensing, meanwhile license the product to the Chinese to build so J6 can buy in for little expense and within a short period HD DVD can easily becomes the new standard as mass market adoption takes place, and thats the way it should have been, HD media after all is only a small step forward, not the huge marketing BS that is BR.
Unfortunately sony decided the japanese cartels were going to be in control and no amount of good sentiment was going to stop them, the end result of that corruption saw Toshiba loose a truckload of money, not because the product or plan was wrong, but because sony decided they were locking out cheap manufacturing so they and they alone could reap the rewards
The BR faithful continually harp on about the BR business model being so sound, what a joke. Create a cartel and force consumers into paying ridiculous prices for their over priced products.No other product in the world today can survive like that, unless of course sony sees itself as the Mercedes Benz of the electronics world, and by right they can overcharge, under deliver, and create themselves a profitable niche, and in the process f*uck mass market adoption.
I don't hate BR, I just hate the arrogance that has been shown by its producers, BR, IMO deserves to crash and burn, and i for one hope it does.
Still could case less about Blu-Ray. DVD is good enough for me. It's cheap, it works, and it's not completely DRM infested. I still hope it fails.
Me
from the article:
"So while it's fun to say the reason people aren't buying is because DVD is good enough, or because the cost is too high; we prefer to think that consumers are smart enough..."
Say what?