Netflix tidbits: DVD business could peak in a decade, Mac streaming on the way
By Darren Murph 
posted Jun 12th 2008 1:46PM
posted Jun 12th 2008 1:46PM
[Image courtesy of ANPark]
posted Jun 12th 2008 1:46PM
Now that we've thrown 'em off the trail, use the form below to get in touch with the people at Engadget. Please fill in all of the required fields because they're required.
I'm surprised with all this VoD stories on engadgetHD that no one has brought up Time Warner's recent idea of charging per the GB after you go over a limit.
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jun2008/tc2008063_767960.htm?chan=technology_technology+index+page_top+stories
A Bandwidth Bandwagon?
Users may exceed limits even with Time Warner Cable's most expensive offering, $54.90 for 15 megabytes of data transfer and a 40GB cap, Brodsky reckons. "An HD movie is 8GB or so, three movies is more than half your allowance for a month, and heaven knows what else you might want to watch," Brodsky says. "This is not a relieving congestion scheme as much as it is a rationing scheme. All it does is protect an inadequate infrastructure from the cable company."
Time Warner set the tiers believing that the vast majority of users who pay $49.95 for the company's Roadrunner high-speed service would not see an impact, since their data usage already falls within the 20GB-per-month limit, Dudley says. As the network is upgraded to handle more capacity, it would adjust the caps to reflect users' changing Internet habits, he adds. So if, say, HD movie downloads became commonplace, the plan targeting the average user would have a much higher monthly GB limit.
Why bring it up? If you have Time Warner, you should switch to another provider.
Actually, it's not a Time Warner issue only. I've received a letter from my ISP in which they state that I've been downloading too much and I should consider moving up to a more expensive plan. I think that ISPs that have some sort of participation in VoD are playing the silly game of capping our downloading, so you can choose their VoD service instead. It ain't going to happen.
not everyone can switch providers
here in new orleans we are stuck with cox, no real other choice unless u want crappy ATT dsl and ina year or so uverse. while lafayette ( a realy crappy town in the state of lousiana ) has fiber, the people voted for the local gov to build its own network, and they offer 50MB connections for less then dsl or cable offers 15MB connections, and next year they are movng up to a 100MB connections, they offer a min connection of 10MB)
I'm all for cooperative utilities. I think all utilities should be owned by the people that they serve. That way, there's no confusion about who's in charge.
They'll probably all do it sooner or later. Bandwidth consumption is only going to get worse for providers and I think they know it themselves. It must also have occurred to them that a limit is a way to tie users to their own services - "our VOD / IPTV service does not count towards your download limit".
The behaviour of some ISP's is an obvious (tho temporary) choke-
point.
But in the coming few years it's just not going to be the big problem it
once was, especially in the most populous areas.
Whether downloads are going to be the biggest portion of the market
or merely a large section of the future market remains to be seen but
make no mistake, downloading is set to grow very substantially.
Even things like the CE corps & movie studios advertising & expecting
people to hook up their players to the internet for the extra features
is going to encourage more people to get interested than otherwise
might bother.
But as for ISP problems?
In the short term the answer is obvious.
Dissatisfied customers should just get up off of their behinds and switch to a decent ISP.
I've experienced this myself & it's not the problem some might
imagine.
I used to be with a well-know UK ISP offering supposedly uncapped and
unlimited downloads for £20 per month.
They used to be good too. I was with them for years.
Then they got bought up and changed name a few times and the service
went down the cr@pper.
The last straw was just when I finally got my 'high speeds' (6.5mb)
that was when they started throttling my speeds (on a supposedly 'up
to 8mb connection) to about 1.3mb.
Even in the middle of the night (and as 'off-peak' as it gets).
And they introduced a 'fair use policy' the details of which seemed
only known to them.
F*ck them & that.
I moved to another ISP which charges me £1/$2 per week more for an
'up to 8mb' connection which is the best my line can give & it's never throttled.
This company have up front and very transparent charging (always a
good sign).
I get a monthly 30gb limit for downloading during peak hours (8am -
10pm) which is a little bit of a pain until you get used to it.
But I have a monthly 300gb limit during off-peak hours.
I know precisely where I stand with them and I get the exact service
I am paying for.
It beats moaning about them & doing nothing.
Roll on the end of the year & our upgrade to the new C21N technology,
'up to 24mb' connection (which if the ratio on the current connection
is maintained should be about 19 - 20mb).
It's starting to get much more like it and it makes downloading some handy nice 8.5gb DVD9 sized high def encodes a breeze (they're not exactly a big deal now).
....... and for those who refuse to believe it a well done 8.5gb - 12.5gb high def encode (with 1.5mbps DTS audio) is a very acceptable and watchable size.
(and if people aren't convinced by upscale verses high def you better believe they are not going to be worrying about a nice and properly done download)
It sounds like the market is doing far better in the UK than it is in the US.
I live in a major metropolitan US city population > 4 million and I can not switch broadband carriers. I want to get off cable modem and go to ANYWHERE else. I can not get isdn or fios. This leaves me with the option for dial up or cable modem.
The infrastructure isn't really in place in most cities to truly support wide broadband to consumers with choice. Beyond running separate network connections block wide runs need to be made to each residence. In an apartment building that can mean wiring a whole building.
These are all solvable problems but it will cost a lost of money. Many companies would love to compete in all markets but right now it is a divided battlefield. Where companies have the best chance of winning they invest their resources and leave other less certain markets.
Who provides your broadband isn't dependent on choice but dependent on your geographical location. I'm sure At&t would love to have me as a customer but they aren't going to rewire my apartment building to provide me with $30 a month broadband, even if the owner of the building allowed it.
For business US broadband access is aces. For the average consumer not so good.
The rates of transfer I'm looking at are at best 8mb/s.
I could see given your choice of providers and available speed why you would think VOD and DL would work.
The network providers will make the bandwidth for vod available but they aren't going to be selfless they are going to charge quite a bit to make it happen.
I think it's funny how so many people seem to assume that VoD is going to replace physical media. There are so many barriers against it, that I honestly can't see it growing much beyond maybe 10% of the home video market, at least in the next ten years. We're not talking 3 MB song downloads, here, but multi-gigabyte movie downloads for good quality HD. Certainly it will have its place, but replacing physical media? No way.
No one is going to come wave a magic wand and give every household in the world unlimited bandwidth and unlimited data transfer, but any household in the world can go out and buy a DVD or Blu-ray player right now and get as much of whatever content they want.
The VoD craze reminds me of the dot com days, when everyone thought that a viable business model was irrelevant. I suppose they think Grandma and Grandpa are going to wire their home theater for Ethernet, run out and buy a proprietary video streaming solution, and cash is just going to rain from the sky for these providers, right?
I don't think anyone is saying it's a matter of completely replacing physical media
(tho what that 'physical media' means is also due to change soon too .....the 32gb flash drive is only the start of decent big sizes coming).
It's a matter of the market spreading over a variety of media and mthods of delivery.
Unfortunately for those who day-dream of Blu-ray simply slotting in as 'the next DVD' there is no such possibility.
As increasingly tech aware & tech comfortable consumers mature into our aging populations I see no reason to imagine they will turn off of the newer & obviously more flexible means and away from old-fashioned discs.
Lots of people already spurn physical media.
I and my family set up my ageing relatives tech stuff if needed, they just loves it that it works and is easy to use.
But the nub of this little part of this debate is hilarous.
Be honest, the only point being made here is this one......
'Blu-ray fans, die-hard luddites for everything & anything that's not their beloved format'.
From the post: "it shouldn't come as a surprise that the outfit's execs understand that physical media is at risk."
Previous posters' point: Significant technical challenges stand in the way of mass adoption of movie downloads, especially at full HD resolution, therefore physical media is not "at risk".
As for 'Blu-ray fans, die-hard luddites for everything & anything that's not their beloved format', I would gladly switch to another format, as long as all providers are on board and I can get the best HD quality possible. That's not going to come from downloads any time in the foreseeable future. Flash maybe at some point, when the price drops enough.
If you're honest with yourself, you'll see that you're one of the only people around clinging to a format. I can't speak for everyone, but I'm interested in quality, and I'll go where I can get it.
No sorry to disappoint you E, not "clinging", enjoying.
Seems like you have a shed-load of words you have weird ideas about & odd definitions for.
I'm enjoying the format(s) of my choice including a high def one which offers me everything Blu-ray does but at a fraction of the cost
(and in fact IMO it still offers me better titles including several movie exclusives many of which are the kind of classics I will enjoy for years).
That (and the other alternatives) will keep me going until next year or the year after.
By which time Blu-ray's failure to break out of the niche will be plain to see.
Whatever way you want to look at it these pages here on EngadgetHD are filling up with news about various streaming, VOD and HD TV services offering movies on demand.
iMovies already proved this is no tiny limited market confined to geeks with a 1st class net connection......and that the mass-market could care less about uncompressed audio or for that matter the (supposed) nth degree in HD.
There's just too much fragmentation of the market (and which can only increase over time) for Blu-ray to simply become 'the next DVD'.
It's all too little too late.
.....but then again there are just too many down-sides & too much wrong with Blu-ray to overlook.
I just want to be able to watch the movies on my PS3..........thats all
It also has to be said to those who would seek to minimise & down-play this......
the itunes & movie downloads already prove the scope for huge growth in this market.
Digital Downloads of Music only accounted for 15% of the market in 07, and is not expected to surpass Physical Media until 2011. The first stat is easy to find, the second is analyst talk, so I don't think a link helps it.
Blu-Ray is still the best option today, the rest of this year, and next year. By 2010, maybe VoD will be ready for Prime Time.
Yeah, but Music downloads had to compete with an established physical media. The CD came out well before digital downloads were available.
If we are talking about HD Movies, there is no established physical media yet. Blu-ray still has a ways to go to prove itself in the mass market. If the HD download/streaming options increase quickly enough over the next 18 months, I could see there being an interesting war in the HD movie space between physical media & downloads.