Quote from the Interview: "Looking ahead, you're only just getting into Blu-ray. How do you see the future penetration of the format compared with DVD?
Glasgow: That's a good question. DVD took 10 years to really penetrate. We're now in the second year of Blu-ray. My guess is it will probably happen a little quicker in terms of penetration. The pricing is already coming down more quickly than DVD came down. I don't think it will take as long as 10 years, but I don't think it will penetrate to the same percentage because there's a couple of conflicting forces. Certainly, people that want the best picture are going to want it, without a doubt. People that are OK with upconverting DVD players, which is somewhere close to 600, 650, maybe 700 (lines of resolution)--that's not a bad picture either. So a lot of people may be happy with an upconverting DVD player. And (Blu-ray) may not turn over, it may not penetrate to the same extent, because (DVD) was such a big medium change from tape.
But I see it being the major format. It's won the war, that's done. Now it's a matter of: Can we provide an exceptional experience? Can we provide a social part? And can we involve the overall community in, let's say, designing applets and coming up with new things that we can't even think of today?"
Hint hint: 98% of people don't care about a "social part" to the home-theater experience. If they want to get social with it, they invite friends/family to watch in the same room. When people sit down to watch a DVD, they aren't thinking "man, I wish I could text message some strangers who are watching the same movie as me," so adding such a feature to BR isn't going to be a draw.
(Hint to self: 98% of statistics are made up, but they can still make a point and sound believeable.)
I think in 10 years DVD regarded like VideoCDs today. BD players will be backwards compatible and so cheap that no one would bother buying DVD player. Chances are they couldn't even if they wanted to.
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Quote from the Interview:
"Looking ahead, you're only just getting into Blu-ray. How do you see the future penetration of the format compared with DVD?
Glasgow: That's a good question. DVD took 10 years to really penetrate. We're now in the second year of Blu-ray. My guess is it will probably happen a little quicker in terms of penetration. The pricing is already coming down more quickly than DVD came down. I don't think it will take as long as 10 years, but I don't think it will penetrate to the same percentage because there's a couple of conflicting forces. Certainly, people that want the best picture are going to want it, without a doubt. People that are OK with upconverting DVD players, which is somewhere close to 600, 650, maybe 700 (lines of resolution)--that's not a bad picture either. So a lot of people may be happy with an upconverting DVD player. And (Blu-ray) may not turn over, it may not penetrate to the same extent, because (DVD) was such a big medium change from tape.
But I see it being the major format. It's won the war, that's done. Now it's a matter of: Can we provide an exceptional experience? Can we provide a social part? And can we involve the overall community in, let's say, designing applets and coming up with new things that we can't even think of today?"
Sounds reasonable on the whole. At least they know what they have to do to make it appealing for the sheep who bought into it.
"Can we provide a social part?"
Hint hint: 98% of people don't care about a "social part" to the home-theater experience. If they want to get social with it, they invite friends/family to watch in the same room. When people sit down to watch a DVD, they aren't thinking "man, I wish I could text message some strangers who are watching the same movie as me," so adding such a feature to BR isn't going to be a draw.
(Hint to self: 98% of statistics are made up, but they can still make a point and sound believeable.)
I think in 10 years DVD regarded like VideoCDs today. BD players will be backwards compatible and so cheap that no one would bother buying DVD player. Chances are they couldn't even if they wanted to.