http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/ Engadget HD Comments for Another research firm asserts that BDs will overtake DVDs in 2012 http://hd.engadget.com/media/feedlogo.gif http://hd.engadget.com en-us Copyright 2009 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/
For Blu-ray to succeed to current DVD levels, more has to happen than just a sub-$200/sub-$100/whatever-your-personal-threshold-for-affordability BD player has to arrive. Investing in Blu-ray means buying an HDTV (and a substantial HDTV, not a $250 ATSC set) as well as a BD player. While you can see the HD difference on a $500 32" set, realistically the threshold at which DVD starts to look horrible requires far greater expenditure than that.

Especially with the economy being what it is, it's hard to see how BD can succeed that quickly. DVD, at least, had the benefit of a strong (if weakening) economy behind it, with 2000 being the make-or-break year and the economy still rolling high on Y2K programmer salaries and the .com boom. By the time the economy broke, sometime in mid-2001, player prices were extremely decent. And DVD didn't require anything be upgraded to see the difference or exploit the advantages. The total investment back in 2000 was around $200-250, or $500 if you wanted a sound system to go with it.

Today the total minimum investment to get anything substantially better than DVD out of Blu-ray is around $1,500. This assumes you're happy keeping your old receiver, otherwise the price goes beyond $2,000. Plasma and LCD prices don't seem to be falling (TVs are getting bigger for the same price, but the market seems to have decided that around $700 is "right" for a low-end large screen of the sort Engadget's readers wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole.)

I just don't see it. I don't see BD sales in 2012 being comparable (even at 50%) to DVD sales today.]]>Aug 20th 2008 2:21PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/Aug 20th 2008 2:41PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/Aug 20th 2008 2:48PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/Aug 20th 2008 3:31PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/Aug 20th 2008 4:43PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/Aug 20th 2008 7:18PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/
Secondly, why is it right? Money.

The time will come when the second tier releases will have to make the decision "do we release in both formats (DVD and Bluray)"? and the answer will be n. Why? The cost of producing the DVD in the face of declining sales won’t make it worth it. It will be like the BR/HD-DVD dilemma. The studios always will want to release one SKU for each movie. They know that if they neglect DVD they can drive that business over to BR. Remember all of those prognostications that HD-DVD's demise would take months or even years? It took only a few weeks before there was no B&M presence at all. I expect much the same will happen with DVD, it won't end with a whimper but a bang.
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No studios - not even those owned by Sony - are going to drop DVD in favour of Blu-ray until and unless Blu-ray is substantially more popular. Not going to happen. If in 2012 sales are as the above report predicts, studios will be supporting both formats equally.]]>Aug 20th 2008 3:03PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/Aug 20th 2008 2:59PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/
I'd be really surprised if Blu-Rays overtake DVDs in 4 years. I would say the majority of my relatives have no interest in HDTV or Blu-Ray even after seeing my 52" LCD running HDTV.]]>Aug 20th 2008 3:22PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/Aug 20th 2008 3:35PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/Right now, Blu-Ray is dependent on the PS3. That has to change or the PS3 has to significantly dominate the console race.
Right now, the only Blu-Ray player worth purchasing is a PS3 and all newer Blu-Ray players are coming in around the price of a PS3 but obviously have less features then the PS3. Until there's an incentive to buy a stand alone player (that isn't outdated), I can't see Blu overtaking DVD. That's not to say that Blu won't do well or disapear, we're just talking replacing, overtaking or being almost even. Even if Blu were to become stable at 30% of sales, it could co-exist to cater to the HD tech junkies :)]]>Aug 20th 2008 3:39PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/
Even if players did cost $100 like someone said, it still won't sell more Blu-Ray disc, Blu-ray adoption depends on HDTV Adoption, it' that simple. Normal People, unless they're RICH aren't just going to replace their Analog TV, because they want an HDTV. They are going to wait for it to break, and then because people will have no other choice, since stores only sell HDTVs in most countries, they will have to buy an HDTV. Also Just because they buy an HDTV, doesn't mean they're going to buy a Blu-Ray player. They may still have a DVD Player.

So Here is what I Predict will happen, They are going to make cheap DVD Players that will break soon, before they stop making them that is. Also Eventually they are going to have promotions like, get X dollars off a Blu-Ray Player when you bring in a DVD player. This will be as if the company is buying people's DVD players. Then, if this is possible, the Blu-Ray companies will disassemble the DVD Players, and use any parts they can to make Blu-Ray player.]]>Aug 20th 2008 5:58PMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/
Broadband bandwidth speed would have gone up considerably whilst cost per GB down considerably (i.e. realistic alternative to stream HD content at low cost).

The Media Centre PC concept would have also matured enough to offer a low cost, high storage (Tb's), high bandwidth alternative (that the average person could use), on demand etc. Think AppleTV 3.0, or even a matured MS product (PC Media Centre, or Xbox720), PS4. I just think it is a market there for the taking if executed well (i.e. ease of use of a HDTV set top box - not directed at the techie).

. . . or . . . . Beta could make a comeback . . .]]>Aug 21st 2008 5:38AMhttp://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/http://hd.engadget.com/2008/08/20/another-research-firm-asserts-that-bds-will-overtake-dvds-in-201/
These people can barely work their computers let alone hook them up to TVs.

If the player prices do drop and the younger people of today, who have no problem upgrading from an Ipod to an Ipod nano even though their Ipod works fine, buy TVs and players like we know they will, in 2 years I think Blu-ray will have a decent presence.

Sure, there will be alot of people that don't care to upgrade, but in 2 years there will be USED blu-ray players on the market and on Ebay for 100 dollars or less.

Cable type VOD will be adopted, but the broadband Techie solutions that are just starting to hit the market and will be in full swing in 2 years, won't be reaching any of the non techie pleebs out there.

Blu-ray definitely still has a shot. ]]>Aug 21st 2008 4:19PM