The problem here is that you're saying that Blu-Ray is dependent on people owning HDTVs. While this is certainly true, the sales of HDTVs have been through the roof. You can't even find a non-HDTV at any of the major outlets these days unless it's a 15" CRT that you can put in the dorm room.
Downloads will never catch on simply because people like owning physical media, they like being able to instantly jump around, fast forward, and doing everything a DVD does. Also, broadband providers are increasingly putting limit caps on network usage per month. Some are as low as 10GB a month. There is just too much going against this to make it viable for the future of an HD format.
The only alternative for people who are buying up all these HDTVs is getting HD cable, or Blu-Ray. It's inevitable that when prices come down for Blu-Ray to match DVDs, it will simply replace it. If you've been watching the major chains, you've probably noticed that they've gone from a single display with typically a PS3 blu-ray player and a dozen movies, to a few aisles of Blu-Ray movies. Best Buy has begun consolidating their DVDs into fewer aisles while expanding their Blu-Ray aisles.
Could it still fail? Sure, but from my perspective, not likely.
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The problem here is that you're saying that Blu-Ray is dependent on people owning HDTVs. While this is certainly true, the sales of HDTVs have been through the roof. You can't even find a non-HDTV at any of the major outlets these days unless it's a 15" CRT that you can put in the dorm room.
Downloads will never catch on simply because people like owning physical media, they like being able to instantly jump around, fast forward, and doing everything a DVD does. Also, broadband providers are increasingly putting limit caps on network usage per month. Some are as low as 10GB a month. There is just too much going against this to make it viable for the future of an HD format.
The only alternative for people who are buying up all these HDTVs is getting HD cable, or Blu-Ray. It's inevitable that when prices come down for Blu-Ray to match DVDs, it will simply replace it. If you've been watching the major chains, you've probably noticed that they've gone from a single display with typically a PS3 blu-ray player and a dozen movies, to a few aisles of Blu-Ray movies. Best Buy has begun consolidating their DVDs into fewer aisles while expanding their Blu-Ray aisles.
Could it still fail? Sure, but from my perspective, not likely.