The percentage of sales people that recommend Samsung HDTVs.
Salespeople are also becoming less likely to recommend LCD sets over plasma sets, which goes against the industry trend.
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If studios bring the movie prices down, then BD has a fighting chance. Otherwise, I have to say it is very possible that BD will become a niche format.
Personally, I would still support it as a niche, only because I want the PQ and audio quality that DL's simply cannot compete with. I also want to own physical media, not some file in a harddrive that may go corrupt, and then have to pay to redownload it... or they decide to pull their licences and I end up with a worthless library. With BD, it's on a disc, I can take it to a friends house (when they buy a player!)... simple. DL's... still not ready for primetime in my book.
It is possible that Blu-ray will turn out to be a niche market. But the thing nobody ever seems to acknowledge in these debates is the fundamental difference between the rental market and the retail market.
Digital distribution does indeed have a strong start in the rental market and considering that you watch a rental and then you are done with it that will likely be a lucrative market for them. But even these rentals are considerably more expensive than a Netflix subscription. And if I have to wait 4 hours to download a 1080p HDX movie from Vudu or whatever equivalent Apple may someday offer then that sort of sticks a defeats the immediate gratification advantage of digital delivery. I'd just as soon wait a day for Netflix if I have to plan that far ahead to watch a movie.
But the real question is how much will studios demand for HD movie purchases via digital download? The studios are already making Apple charge 15 bucks for crappy "near DVD" quality SD purchases (and notice how they never mention those when they brag about all the TV shows they have sold). DVD's can be had for about the same price. Digital is supposed to be cheaper right?
And given the studio's greed on SD content I would not be surprised to see downloadable HD content go for 20-25 dollars a pop... at which point why should I bother? Most Blu-rays can already be had for about the same price during the initial week at Best Buy and Amazon always has good prices.