Singulus CEO predicts Blu-ray machine delivery peak in 5 to 6 years
By Darren Murph 
posted Nov 10th 2008 1:37PM
posted Nov 10th 2008 1:37PM
[Image courtesy of The Master Shake Signal]
posted Nov 10th 2008 1:37PM
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I'd be surprised if it takes that long. Digital formats will take over before that I think, but I'm not a bigwig CEO either.
Still doing better than Discovision/Laserdisc did.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb6695/is_/ai_n26410932
I think LD peaked at about 2% of households (after over a decade), and Blu should eclipse that this holiday season easily.
Why are 50% of US households going to buy a Blu-ray player over the next two years? I don't see why this would happen.
Because of the upswing in HDTV purchases. And before we get more "DVD is good enough BS," cite an actual study that says that, mkay? mkay! And the best time to grab a BD player is when you grab a new HDTV... it's just a natural time to purchase, the salesman will push it, AND it gives you a better chance at talking a deal.
The analog spectrum goes south next year, and that will motivate many people to purchase HDTVs. I know several that are just waiting for that as an excuse. Of course, the economy is going to be a major factor, but already it's basically impossible to buy a decent-sized SDTV any more.
-Pie
HD TV sales have dived so badly that they are slashing production
(EngadgetHD carried the story recently).
We also know that at least up until sept this year the majority of HD TVs sold were small screen (32" - 42") and 720p.
(EngadgetHD carried the story recently)
That's hardly the spec to be showing new customers this supposedly enormous gap in quality between upscaled DVD & Blu-ray, not at normal viewing distances.
Most sales guys I have seen lately are pushing satellite HD TV with a DVR.
It's an easier sale to make.
One low one-off price (at least 1/3 the cost of a Blu-ray player) and monthly payments just a little above what they may already be paying their supplier.
That's what is picking up what few sales there are, not Blu-ray.
EatingPie - 50% of households are going to spend $1,000 on a new TV in the next two years?
Really?
Do you seriously believe that?
Not to nitpick, squiggleslash, but it says 50% of households to OWN a Blu-ray player in the next two years, not buy. There is a difference. Not commenting on the validity of the statement, because I don't think anyone really knows, but I just thought I'd point that out...
Daaper - right now 1.6% of households own Blu-ray players (excluding the PS3, but that's a law unto itself. We might be talking about a total of 4-5% penetration counting the PS3, but evidence thus far is that sales to PS3 users tends to be limited to a handful of titles that are especially appealing to that demographic, they're not rushing out to buy 2001 or Blade Runner for example)
So, yeah, technically I'm questioning whether 48.4% of households will get a Blu-ray player, and maybe my last comment should have been 45% of households buy a $1,000 (or over) HDTV (when we start getting well below $1,000, we're talking about the kinds of TVs where HD is great, but DVD-quality doesn't look half bad either, and while 10-20% of households have an HDTV, the majority do not own the kinds of TVs that "need" Blu-ray, hence 45% of households).
I figured just using 50% was an easier approximation. But 45% would also be reasonable approximation, and I still find it an unlikely one, especially with the economy as it is.
I understand why people hesitate to include PS3 owners, but it does come off as a bit disingenuous to exclude them from sales figures. As a PS3 owner, I do take some offense when it seems like people assume that anyone owning a PS3 doesn't count because they have no taste in movies. Not to mention, who are we to judge what others enjoy in a movie? If somebody only buys a Blu-ray player so they watch all their favorite Hannah Montana movies and nothing else, did they not just buy a Blu-ray player, then?
Please don't take any of this as me attacking you. To be honest, I couldn't care less about Blu-ray sales figures. I don't really care if it fails, so long as there is a consumer-minded, high-def replacement. I know Blu-ray is far from consumer-minded at the moment...which is why I mostly rent to limit my investment. I just like options :-)
The difficulty of saying how big an impact the PS3 has is why I ended up finishing with "45% of households" for both metrics at the end of that post.
The PS3's issue is not whether PS3 owners have good or bad taste, but on the fact that only certain titles will sell well to them. With DVD, you can expect any title to sell proportionately to its international popularity. With Blu-ray, anything that appeals to the 15-25 year old male demographic that also happens to look fairly good in HD will sell disproportionately well, which makes judging the success of the format harder and makes it harder for studios to make decisions about what to pump money into. That's the problem with the PS3's status, and it's also why it's so hard to judge how large a proportion of PS3s are actually used as BD players.
I'm not treating what you're saying as attacks, I think you're raising good issues BTW.
"With Blu-ray, anything that appeals to the 15-25 year old male demographic that also happens to look fairly good in HD will sell disproportionately well, which makes judging the success of the format harder and makes it harder for studios to make decisions about what to pump money into."
Unfortunately, I think it's going to be that way for all of high-def for a while. Until it replaces SD (in any format), there will always be movies that are "good enough" for SD. Once HD becomes the standard fare, we'll no longer have to worry about what demographics will purchase one movie over another. The problem for us "early adopters" is that HD is from ubiquitous and, in the meantime, we have to put up with this muddy mess of formats and product delivery methods...which, ironically, only tends to push HD farther from the average consumer's home.
Sounds very suspect!!!
Darren,
If 50% of households own a blu-ray player within the next 2 years, that would make Blu-ray a faster selling format than even DVD. CEA only predicted 30% of households this year would own an HDTV. Why would anyone predict that an accesory like Blu-ray would outsell HDTVs? Are you guys really that desperate for content?
Even if the BS about BR being 50% in 2 years were right, a major hurdle they face is the DVD compatibility the format has.
When DVD came out, you couldn't play your VHS tapes on DVD, regardless everyone wanted DVD becuase the jump in quality, portability and convenience was huge, the same cant be said for BR over DVD.
Even if that fudged BR stat was correct, when the choice comes like I recently had, 5 old but good DVDs for the price of 1 old but good BR, what is the public going to buy? I bought the 5 DVDs. Even when/if prices become significantly cheaper and DVD is still 2 for 1, what are most people going to do? They'll do what the PS3 crowd does, buy the latest action flick, but not worry too much about the rest.
The DVD library is so huge, and the price so low that even if BR reached these BS numbers in hardware saturation, it doesn't necessarily mean large scale disc sales. If the public is anything like me, HD movies will only be for the latest and greatest action releases, for the average drama, TV show or classic etc, DVD is good enough.
It's just more laughably optimistic BS from those with a vested interest in trying to keep the show on the road as long as possible & who continue to exhort us all to 'believe'.
Here's the only news that means anything -
Circuit City just applied for chapter 11 bankruptcy.
The US car industry is publicly appealing for a bail-out & reckons they're months off of outright bankruptcy.
House sales have dried up.
Unemployment is sky-rocketing (at a 14yr high in the USA alone).
It's so dire that even with falling tax revenues Govs are talking about boosting borrowing to cut personal taxation rates to stave off the worst effects of what is coming.
Know what that sort of forecast reminds me of?
Anyone recall the film Erik the Viking?
Hy-Brasil?
The land that sunk beneath the waves with King Arnulf in denial even as the waters crept above his nose?
Yeah, sure; of course, just give it a year or 2 and it'll all be great again and all sales records will be broken.
Not.
Wake up folks.
The sh*t is almost upon the fan.
I want this guys crack, in 2 years I will make a million a year.
Back to reality and households don’t have 50% HDTVs, and I doubt that households have 5 percent Blu-Ray players and people think that with the bad economy that people will start buying into a new format that has lots of doubters, that is still expensive.
Again what crack can I start having?
If these figures are anywhere near then in 5 to 6 years time Blu-ray players will be at almost the point of DVD players now. No wonder they will peak.
Is it possible? Why not.. Decreasing prices for the players and backwardly compatible with DVD, it isn't beyond the realm of possibility that Blu-tay players will be at least as popular as upscaling DVD players are now.
The only way Blu-Ray will reach 50% in two years is if the movie industry stops releasing movies on standard dvd. I have a feeling they will stop releasing movies on dvd in 2010, since they love their DRM so much.