Nielsen VideoScan High-Def market share for week ending January 11th, 2009
By Ben Drawbaugh 
posted Jan 17th 2009 8:31PM
posted Jan 17th 2009 8:31PM
That Pineapple Express is obviously pretty good stuff as it not only moved enough discs to take the number one spot, on the Nielsen VideoScan charts courtesy of Home Media Magazine, but it also outsold the mighty Dark Knight by almost three to one in its third week. Seth Rogen's latest comedy also topped the new Blu-ray rental chart -- which is new this week and posted after the break. For now we're going to skip posting the top 20 market share chart because it's useless until Nielsen will provide HMM a version without all the catalog titles. Blu-ray's top 20 market share was down this week to 13 percent, which would normally be a good week if we weren't comparing it to last week's record breaking 16 percent. At this point we're tempted to predict both formats being down next week, but after Pineapple Express surprised us this week, we'll wait and see how Appaloosa does rather than risk looking stupid again.
I just bought Appaloosa on DVD, that is a darn good Western. I see Blu-Ray is back down to 13% this week. At this rate, it won't even reach 25% until Thanksgiving!
Back down? Wasn't long ago being over 10% was a good week.. I think as long as stay above that doing fine... I think when 007 comes out it will get close to 20%...say 18%.
Since this past thanksgiving was around 10% going up to 25% would be great...but I bet by Christmas it's close to 30%
Quit kidding yourselves.
It's only a real 4.25% - and even that's so long as there's a bigger seller like Iron Man & Batman TDK to spike sales.
@MFM,
Care to supply numbers and a link to support you claim?
Who cares if big action movies sell better...I bet Batman DVD out sold Mama Mia DVD just like the BD counter parts did....and just like it happened in theaters too.
Sure, it was carried here on EngadgetHD afterall - despite a years worth of weekly Nielson 12%+ BS.
"Blu-ray software shipments grew ......to 63.2 million units in 2008, from 18 million units in 2007, DEG said.
DVD shipments also were down during the year, declining to 1.4 billion units, an almost 15% drop from 2007 unit shipments
http://www.engadgethd.com/2009/01/08/blu-ray-moved-63-2-million-units-in-2008
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6627437.html?nid=3511
The actual release from DEG says DVD sold 1.407 billion to Blu-ray's 63.154 million
http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/CES2009yearEnd.htm
So it turns out I was wrong, it's not 4.25% it's 4.45%. Apologies.
But the point & general idea stands.
Forget the laughably delusional BS about 12%, 13%, 20%, 25% or 30%.
Unless you see everything Blu-ray did this year (including matching the to-date record Iron Man and Batman TDK sales numbers) you aren't likely to see much more 5%.
The fanboys element can fool themselves as much as they like but Blu-ray has absolutely not taken off this year and anything significant happening in 2009 (thanks to the coming recession - bye bye Circuit City, you are merely the 1st to go in 09) is very much doubtful.
Thanks for the laugh and not providing the facts on weekly numbers there MFM.
Good call MFM, it's amazing that even the regulars here who know better get taken in by the BDA BS and start quoting the BS as fact.
It's like the old adage, if you keep telling a lie long enough, sooner or later everyone, including the person telling the lie, starts to believe it to be true.
MFM,
So DVD sales dropped 15% but blu ray sales went up 350% and this is bad for blu ray.
You are right that weekly percentage did throw me off I was looking at it going from 7% to 15% and thinking "wow sale are doubling" but now I see last year they more then tripeled.
Thanks for the irrelevant drivel MFM...this post is about sales dollars of BD's compared to DVD's. Your only response is to link to articles about disc SHIPMENTS (which are clearly different from sales, a fact you may not understand), and revenue that includes not just sales but also rentals (rentals are irrelevant in this discussion).
Why don't you trust the Nielson numbers? Because you're a conspiracy theorist and believe that Nielson is only in business to make people think that BD is becoming popular. Nevermind that ACNielson is one of the largest and most reputable marketing firms in the world. They've obviously decided to throw that all away in an attempt to make BD the default video standard, and why? Just to make you mad I'm sure.
You also seem to be stuck on "to-date" sales of discs in an attempt to keep moving the goalposts. For some reason it seems that you believe the sales patterns of DVD's is wholly different from BD's. Why do you believe that DVD's of any certain title keep steadily selling weeks and months after the release date while BD's are only sold within the first week or two? Don't tell me...it's because they don't publish that information...if they did, you'd have to find another place to move the goalposts to.
The other thing you're stuck on is sales totals for the year with absolutely no regard for trend. Sales at the end of 2008 (and going in to 2009 so far) are trending triple, quadruple and above where they were just at this time last year. DVD is actually trending downward. If BD sales continue their upward trend, they'll easily total $1.5 to $2.0 billion...perhaps more, and that'll represent a much larger piece of the total media pie. There's nothing niche about that kind of revenue.
I'm also rather bored of your impending doom and gloom prophecies. Where did you get your finance/economics degree from? There is no "coming recession"....the recession is already here and has been for well over a year, making the growth of BD that much more impressive. Recessions start before anyone knows it....they're driven by lagging indicators. They also end before anyone knows it. I'm not saying that it will end soon, but a lot of the current theories out there have this one ending sometime this year. Circuit City going out of business has a very minimal impact on BD sales...that company was in trouble long before the current recession...this just sped up their fate.
So, go back to the drawing board and try again to discredit the success of BD. I'd wish you luck, but I'm sick of hearing from you, so I won't.
A second week of down for both DVD and Blu isn't surprising.
Can anyone think of another title that can take Blu back up to Iron Man or TDK levels?
I don't think anything is going to touch TDK levels until next Christmas probably. Maybe the next Harry Potter movie or the Star Trek flick...something along those lines. I do think there will be lots of strong sellers between now and then though. The next one that will really move the charts will probably Quantum of Solace when it hits BD in March.
That said, despite the slight slip in market share, it's another strong week for BD. Going into October, the average weekly sales for BD were around $8 to $10 million. Since then the average weekly sales have been around $25 million. In fact, this is the first week that sales have dipped below $20 million since before Thanksgiving. Not bad at all, considering the economy.
I bet twilight (ugh, don't know how) or quantum of solace (oh wow, another horrible movie) will sell a lot of copies, but I think you'll have to wait for 2009 blockbusters before you see those numbers again. First up is watchman before a lot of good (hmm, popular maybe a better word) titles hit in may (theaters that is)
'tisn't the season for blockbusters. Studios are pumping out catalogue stuff at the moment. You'll probably have to wait for Quantum of Solace or similar to see any sizable blip in sales. Like usual sales will probably erode in the first half of the year and then pick up for Father's Day, then dip a bit and then shoot up in the last quarter.
If you want to see what sales are likely to drive the format, think of all the blockbusters appearing in the middle of the year Watchmen, Transformers 2, Harry Potter, X-Men, Star Trek. They're the titles which will be selling before next christmas on blu. Also boxed sets like Lord of the Rings, Star Wars, Back to the Future, Indiana Jones will enjoy huge sales whenever they appear.
Maybe Watchmen. Should be out on Blu around late summer, unless the Fox lawsuit ends up derailing the theatrical release.
Luckily the Watchmen lawsuit got settled on the 15th, and is still on schedule for March 6th.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i2079648bd224e2c8075db99d3217979a
'fess up guys -- which one of you purchased Mama Mia?!
My wife told me if I didn't pick it up the day of release, I didn't need to bother coming home.
I bought it for my mother as a christmas present along with a BD player (Sony BDP350). She watched it 4 times allready..
Times are changing and the Blu-ray "PS3 Demographic" is not the factor that it was when the PS3 was the cheapest Blu-ray player. With a lot of BD Players approaching (and going below) $199.99, more mass appeal titles should get better numbers.
Having Blockbuster titles are great and will always help, but solid sales across a wider range of titles show a more mass appeal, and wider adoption, and speaks to the health of the format.
I agree. It also helps that we are starting to get a much bigger catalog selection. For quite a while there were no good older titles available.