Nielsen VideoScan High-Def market share for week ending January 25th, 2009
By Ben Drawbaugh 
posted Jan 31st 2009 1:57PM
posted Jan 31st 2009 1:57PM
Another week, another record for Blu-ray on the Nielsen VideoScan charts courtesy of Home Media Magazine. The big news here is that after the holidays Blu-ray seems to be getting stronger and stronger when you compare the amount of money spent vs DVD. Now some would say this is only part of the picture, and that it's great and all that 17 percent of the home media market's revenue last week went to Blu-ray, but what they really want to know is how many discs were sold. Now don't get us wrong, we'd love to know it as well, but the fact is that this information is provided to us by Nielsen via Home Media Magazine, and we don't get to choose the stats. That being said, we understand that including both unit sales and revenues would be more complicated, and if we had to choose between the two pieces of data, we'd easily choose revenue. After all, the entire point of starting a business is to make money and you can't do that without revenue. This week the big title that shocked us was Max Payne, which easily hit number one while The Express didn't even make the top 20. The good news for Blu though is that over 20 percent of the cash spent on old Max went to the Blu version.The really good news is that at this point we expect even the worst releases to manage 6 percent, and anything but double digit market share for the week seems a distant memory.
down 43% last week, up 48% this week and people managed to spend $5million more on blu vs the previous week?
How long can the numbers keep swinging like this and still keep people's attention. Too many and people may start doubting their reliability.
I'm glad this is just blog fodder for me, but I feel sorry for the people that are trying to make real business decisions based on these numbers.
Why would anyone doubt the reliability of the numbers? Taken in context they make sense. Some weeks the movie theaters do a huge amount of business and other weeks they do crap. BD sales are an exact parallel. When there's a release that people care about, they buy it. When there isn't, they don't. I don't see the week-to-week swings as any kind of indicator of the strength of BD sales. The biggest thing is to look at the sales dollars and the growth over a much longer period of time.
I don't think people need to read too much into the numbers about making a business decision. Blu-Ray is the future of disc sales. Its not going to fail, but it may never be as big as DVD was.
Just look at the numbers, even on a down week it sold over 10 million in this bad economy. Prices will fall, people will buy, Blu is no longer a fad, its mainstream.
P.S. just read that Sin City is coming to Blu in April... that is going to be a great day.
These numbers are based on a very short period and should be taken for what they are. The numbers for DVD also swing a lot, I'm sure (hope) that people that make buissness decisions make them on longer term figures.
However, the long term facts are simply, whether some people like it or not, that BD is doing quite okay...so far. It is actually quite astonishing that BD is doing as well as it is giving the state of the global economy.
One point worthy of making is perhaps also that these figures are for the US only so they are not really representative globally. Okay, I know this is going to get a bit of flame, but that is the way it is.
umm, just take a look at the past 2 weeks weather. The week prior was subject to heavy snow storms in the midwest and some areas on the east coast. This more recent past week was cold in many areas, but less severe weather.
combine that with a few better new titles, there was a significant jump in sales. New TItles: Max Payne and Saw V probably helped a little driving more sales. as did nice sale pricing at some chains like Best Buy.
The numbers keep swinging because Blu is very volatile and sensitive to titles. Sales will still be on average quite low in the first half of the year with spikes around March and June because that's the trend that happens every year. Demand only really picks up for holiday seasons.
People read far too much into individual weeks. The trend is generally upwards but seasonal demand plus weekly fluctuations means the % share will be bouncing all over the place with some drop in demand to be expected around this time of year.
The stats are so volitile because they are based on such small actual numbers.
200% more of only 4 sales is not exactly moving mountains.
I am having trouble tying back to the 17% share for Blu-ray. Based upon the formula below, I am only calculating 12.6%.
% Blu-ray = BD Consumer Spend / (BD Consumer Spend + DVD Consumer Spend)
12.6% = 15.66 / (15.66 + 108.96)
Am I missing something?
The market share percentage is not based on dollars spent. It's based on unit volume.
@ Trojan12
What you are missing is that it is a comparison to DVD. Therefor it is possible for the outcome to be greater than 100%.
Fred @ Jan 31st 2009 3:19PM
"Blu-Ray is the future of disc sales."
I admire your confidence.
But I think you are dead wrong.
It's obvious.
DVD is the past, present and the future best seller.
That's why the current chicanery with stats is so annoying, it's about manipulation and patently trying to shape perceptions with a lie.
But the bald truth stands.
Blu-ray is and continues to be and will remain in any credible projection to the future a small minority share of the movie disc retail market.
The fact is that it just can't grow fast enough now to dominate, there just isn't enough time left until alternate means of HD delivery (but especially digital distribution) take over the mass-market.
(as an increasing stack of new streaming, VOD and digital distribution stories here on engadgetHD proves every week)
Fred @ Jan 31st 2009 3:19PM
"Its not going to fail, but it may never be as big as DVD was."
Unfortunately for your POV Fred that counts as an epic fail.
The CE corps spent $ many many billions on Blu-ray and they did not spend it to trail behind DVD, unfortunately for those grand schemes that is exactly what is happening and what is guaranteed to continue to be the case.
Your logic makes no sense. If Blu is never as big as DVD sales does not mean its an epic fail. Great current example… Nintendo Wii is kicking the ass off of the Xbox 360 and the 360 will never get close to the sales of the Wii, does not mean the 360 is an Epic fail. Second, companies did not invest Billions of dollars into Blu-Ray.
Third, Blu is ahead of pace that DVD was to VHS.
If you’ve ever seen my posts you would know that I have always been critical of Blu and expected it to fail. But Blu is appearing to be like the Arizona Cardinals. Everyone is picking against it and never gives it a chance. But it keeps winning and getting stronger. The numbers are a lot higher than they were in November. Its alive and kicking and gaining steam with a bad economy. The numbers are shocking.
Also you give digital distribution way too much credit with no stats to back it up. I guarantee and will bet that digital is making much less money for the companies that Blu-Ray is.
Fred you know as well as I that it makes perfect sense.
Stop quibbling and dancing about onto utterly irrelevant subjects.
The whole original aim of Blu-ray was to shift the mass-market off of DVD and onto the new format giving all concerned a return to the initial high margins they once had with DVD.
It is quite clear by now that they have failed in this aim. Enormously.
Oh and you're plain wrong about the cost of Blu-ray.
It cost the developing companies many many billions of $.
Really it makes perfect sense??? So companies come out with new IP’s and they control the market in less that 5 years. You name me one product that less than 5 years took over the market it was suppose to and I will say you are 100 percent correct.
So how have they failed? DVD did not pass VHS in as soon as it came out. These subject are not irrelevant. What is irrelevant is that no have no data on how much the companies put into Blu-Ray, how much it costs them to make it, how much they are making off of it.
How long does a shift take oh mighty one??? Give me the time frame.
“You can suck up and repeat the disinformation & obvious PR BS if you like, some of us are a little more critical in our thinking.”
Critical think this, if as you say companies spent many many billons on Blu, then they expected this process to take a while to retrieve all they invested. Someone who spends many many billions is not retarded enough to think that they will make all of it back in 2 years. Its an investment that takes years for the returns to come back to.
MFM,
From the numbers you gave me...dvd sales were down 15% in 2008 from 07 and blu ray was up 350%.
Blu ray isn't going to pass dvd this year...so in the near future it is still dvd... but I would not at all be suprised to see some blu ray movies that come out Christmas 2010 sell more then 50% to blu ray....probably Christmas 2009 a couple titles get over 35%. That makes the long term future blu.
Multiformat mayhem seems to be the so called Truth Teller under a new nick. Same old lies, BD attacks and personal attacks spewed out under a new name.
Get a life man !
Just as I predicted in many of my posts, this is going to be THE year for blu-ray. We are going to have downloading and physical disc living side by side for a long time to come, that's the way it's been. Already we are seeing changes from a week by week share of 6%,7%, and highs of 8% to the upper teens now. We're seeing percentages of discs sold in blu-ray reach 20% compared to dvd now. We are seeing more, cheaper blu-ray players, more advertising, and the word blu-ray, according to Home Media Entertainment, is familiar with 89% of 5,000 respondants to a survey, where-as little as 6 months ago that number was at around 62%.
The thesis is simple. People have spent a good amount of money on their HDTV's and want content that shows off their sets and looks best. Upscaling dvd's are great, but they are not 1080p, and certainly consumers are going to hear the difference between a 320kbps Dolby Digital dvd and a 4.6 mbps DTS Master Audio soundtrack.
I was at Best Buy the other day for the first time in about 4 months. I was surprised to find how many titles were under the $20.00 mark. It was not the same last time, and it looks like reduced pricing is also helping the format. Plants are expanding and more and more releases are being announced. Smaller companies are getting into the game like MPI Home Video.
By the holiday, I am sure we will see players that are full-function reach $199 suggested retail, further enticement for the consumer. I wouldn't be surprised to see some players near $149, heck, I saw $79 on several this last holiday season.
Say what you will about downloads being the entire future of home entertainment. This may well be true, but I think we have one last format before that comes totally true and that's blu-ray disc. Very exciting for movie fans who want to see and hear their movies in the best possible quality, prestine picture in 1080p and soundtracks nearly identical to the studio master. Hmmmm...I havn't seen that available on any downloads and it's going to take a long time before the lines are fast enough to download a reasonable 1080p movie with lossless audio. And still you get no picture in picture, extras or BD Live!
mntwister @ Jan 31st 2009 4:41PM
"we are seeing changes from a week by week share of 6%,7%, and highs of 8% to the upper teens now."
BS
You're seeing a heavily skewed stat which, unless Blu-ray gets something to match the sales spikers of Batman TDK & Iron Man, is going to work out at less than last year's 4.45%
This also happens to mean that current sales are well under a true 4.45% level.
You can suck up and repeat the disinformation & obvious PR BS if you like, some of us are a little more critical in our thinking.
(btw hilarious that you felt the need to start rambling about 1080p, DTS & 330kbps Dolby Digital.
No-one cares......or rather nothing like enough people care.
As the HD iMovies prove)
ha ha...nice post mntwister. If only it were so easy for MFM to get his anger out. Unfortunately, he's like all the other trolls on the internet. Spewing "facts" and stats that he doesn't understand and probably doesn't even care about. He just wants to stir things up and get a reaction out of people. I'm sure you can expect his next post to talk about how you're a fanboy and he's just stating the "facts", and how you can't handle the truth. He'll also discuss the economy and the "coming recession".. He likes to completely ignore the fact that BD has grown very well in the last year despite the fact that the recession started over a year ago. Then he'll go back to accusing Nielson of taking money to report erroneous information in an effort to get the world to adopt BD, because clearly they have nothing better to do than ruin their own hard earned reputation just to tick him off. Get ready for it in 3, 2, 1....
Multi-format mayhem, May I suggest you calm down.... No need to attack people for their posts. All your response said basically is that you are unhappy Blu-ray is succeeding, you are obviously an owner of a hd-dvd player, you are a very angry person, and are not following the events as they happen and are reported by the Neilsons and other agencies that are the followers of the numbers. My numbers, which I have been watching for a long time, daily in fact, are not wrong. I was not talking (and made it quite clear) about the % of sales on new releases, but % of sales for the week of all discs. Please read before exploding, lol. Get out that anger dude, join a gym.
mntwister
Sadly for you (and the other deluded - and so obviously 'projecting' - clan here) I am not in the slightest but irate or at all 'worked up' over any of this and, I'm sorry to have to tell you, I never have been either.
The all-too-obvious regular fanboy saps who roll in every week to applaud their manipulation & obvious disinformation
(even when the self-same website gives them the true annual sales split - 4.45% v 95.65%)
gives me a great big laugh - and have done for a couple of years now.
But that's as much genuine emotion as anything connected to this issue raises with me.
Sorry. If only that were true of all of you guys, huh?
(but you carry on with your deranged 'love' and 'hate' for CE corps, eh?)
Another epic fail for you guys.....but at least it is funny, kinda.
"I am not in the slightest but irate or at all 'worked up' over any of this"
You could have fooled us.
Yeah, cos that would be really difficult. Not.
Jeez, too easy.
Sorry to burst your bubble baby, but your tired old "blu ray is dying" schtick didn't cut it last year and it doesn't this one either. You may wish with all your heart that nasty old blu is failing because it killed HD DVD but that doesn't make it so. Sales figures demonstrate that that the format is doing okay. I'm not even sure why the hell you are so worked up about it unless you are some disgruntled HD DVD fan.
If you own HD DVD titles, just rip them to a PC. It's incredibly simple to do too as I know too well. Use AnyDVD to rip out the AACS and then use eac3to, megui and haali media splitter to get to any format your heart's desire. Remux to mkv, m2ts or transcode to something else. It's easy peasy.
Pissing and moaning a full year after it matters just shows how inept and inmmature you are being about the whole thing. You're whining about a video format of all things. If you can't with good grace cope with being on a losing format, maybe early adoption isn't for you. Next time sit on the sidelines and jump in when the format is decided.
MFM is just a retired HD DVD fanboy. We all remember his crazy ideas and insane lies about HD DVD digging the grave of Blu-ray. He is just trying to save his left hairs but i think he failed bad again?
What gets me is that some people, when you have hope for the format, come out and just try and cut you down. My original post was just some of the good things happening with blu-ray and my excitement over the continuing higher numbers. Yes, I love the format. As a lifelong movie fan, I can now see movies remastered from the studios, many times from the original negatives, with the soundtrack (nearly) identical to the studio master tapes, on my 150" screen with my HD projector. This is a movie fan's dream. Does that mean I am a blu-ray fanboy? If it does, then I guess I am one, because I love the quality I am watching my movies in now. This is especially true for classic film fans like me, who are for the first time seeing and hearing the older films, probably even better than they were when they were originally shown in theaters.
I've tried a few downloads, a streaming movie or two, but nothing comes close to the quality. So I really don't get excited or overheated in the format battles, I get excited about the format that won and the quality with which I can watch my movies in now. That doesn't mean I hope downloads fail or come on here cursing and cutting others who download. I simply love blu-ray because of what it can do, so call me a fanboy? Fine, then I am, big deal...
To the hd-dvd fans out there, hey, one format had to win. Had it been hd-dvd, I would be excited over that format, because that still offered movies in the same quality. I invested in blu-ray instead in the early days of the format war simply because the movie selection on blu-ray was more in tune to my tastes (Disney,ect). And, they were offering more discs with lossless audio as well.
mntwister, it's ok to be hopefully and wish that the format would reach mainstream based on the quality you appreciate and your personal reasons on why you prefer it, like you actually like holding an optical disc in your hand or like to have hundreds of discs in nice packaging stacked on your shelves.
The problem comes in when those hopes and desires turn into support for manipulation of numbers, misleading information and plain lies. This is what personally bugs me. It's not whether or not those percentages are high or low. If Blu-ray had 50% of unit sales vs DVD and presented information like this I would still react the same.
Believe it or not, some of us out there just want straightforward information and no lies in order to fool consumers into thinking they are buying into a sure thing, which is the reason for fudging and presenting numbers like this.
Well the % might be impressive, but the unit sales are still less than 10%.
If you average out the price per unit on DVD and Blu-ray you'll find that DVD far outsells Blu-ray by more than 10 times the amount.
Using a ratio which favors Blu-ray over DVD because the average price of DVD is far less than Blu-ray, if you average the dollar amount of Blu-ray down to $25 and then apply the average difference for new releases on DVD vs Blu-ray, which is about $10 less, you'll get $15.
Blu-ray $15,660,000/$25 = 626,400 units at $25 a piece
DVD $108,960,000/$15 = 7,264,000 units at $15 a piece
626.4/7264 = .0862
So Blu-ray only sold 8.6% of the market that week even with a much more heavily favored discount.
3dpenguin, take a look at the chart again. The percentage pie chart has an asterisk next to it indicating that the percentage isbased on Top 20 unit sales, not sales revenue.
NIUHuskie
No.. it's revenue. It's just another way to mislead. Top 20 unit volume can mean anything but in this case it means unit revenue volume not unit sales. The numbers simple don't add up if you use simple math with DEG numbers. It is impossible that the numbers are anything but revenue, because revenue gives higher percentages in individual DVD vs BD title comparison.
The only chart that deals with unit sales is the one that compares BD title sales in comparison to the number 1 seller (again BD).
Why is it so hard to present numbers in plain unit sales is beyond me? But I'm not shocked considering that Home Media Magazine and Home Media Research have been sticking out BDA ass from day one. To bad that consumers can't get real and normal numbers but fudged and misleading charts like this.
Bozster, I suppose I agree...Top 20 Unit Volume COULD mean anything, though the simple wording of it still leads me to believe that it's units, not revenue. If it truly meant revenue, shouldn't it say that? I think it's time for someone at Engadget HD to do some homework and definitively answer the question of what the pie chart represents.
That said, I don't really feel that any of this is "disinformation". I again restate the fact that Nielson is a highly respected marketing company that's been around for over 80 years. They have no vested interest in skewing numbers to make BD look good, and it would be unethical for them to do so. And these charts are published for people in the business and enthusiasts like all of us. They definitely are not being used to sway the casual buyer into picking up a BD deck.
So, Engadget, I'm throwing down the gauntlet. Get a source to tell us exactly what the pie chart means!
Huskie,
I believe that every other report I read was using these numbers as well and it was specifically mentioned that they were revenue. I don't think I can back that up with the link at the moment, but the fact that you can see they represent DVD value in dollars and Blu-ray value in dollars obviously means revenue. So it would be rather illogical to talk in dollars and then suddenly switch to number of units sold. Don't you agree?
If I stumble upon one of the articles again I'll share it in my future posts, but it is most definitely revenue they are talking about. Other analysts in the market are also discussing this as misleading because it is only taking revenue out of specific titles (that obviously cost more then DVD version) and then use that as market share. That's the part that's misleading. It's not disinformation on Neilsen part so much as I believe the numbers it's just the way they are presented is disingenuous.
Home Media Magazine is taking only numbers that suit them and show it like this. Neilsen obviously has a full set of numbers including unit sales, but if you want to show something to look positive you will include only numbers that suit you. This is why you won't see unit sales any time soon. Because they are extremely low. They only publish unit sales when one specific title on Blu-ray did extraordinary well ie. Dark Knight who sold at about 13-15% of unit sales compared to DVD version.
More trustworthy public numbers are from DEG. They do it on a more global level. They specifically address number of units sold in total on both Blu-ray and DVD as well as total revenue created by both. In the report published January 2009 for 2008 results, Blu-ray unit sales were 4.5% of DVD sales in total while total revenue was I think even lower then that in percentage.
This is all I'm addressing and why I think it's misleading to represent numbers like Home Media Research does and Home Media Magazine publishes.
Good news: Blu-Ray is 17%.
Bad news: DVD is still kicking Blu-Rays butt, and the economy is in the toilet.
Conclusion: Blu-Ray won't reach 50% until 2010.
Lonnie, Blu-ray is at 4.5% not 17%. Until DEG numbers come out for Q1 2009 we won't know if it increased the market share or not.. These other charts are simply fudge.
But I do agree with you, I think we won't see Blu-Ray at 20%+ before end of 2010 if at all.
Lonnie's response is exactly what I'm criticizing. The notion that Blu-Ray is at 17% that's clearly the goal of BDA and industry publishing the cherry picked numbers.
Same BS deception week after week even brainwashes the regulars.
I own blu ray, but I hate the BS and deception that has tainted this format from day 1, it is simply too hard for this mob of shysters to quote the truth or present the facts when a lie will do.
DrXym
"Sales figures demonstrate that that the format is doing okay."
A whole true 4.45% (with massive help from Batman TDK & Iron Man)
Yeah, 3yrs in & doing amazingly well. What a joke.
LMAO.
Much better than dvd did the same amount of time into the format (I suppose you will next say I am a fanboy making this up, lol), see Home Media Retailing week of December 15 issue, Variety December 29, Wall Street Journal January 22, New York Times January 16, Los Angeles Times December 12 AND Hollywood Reporter on January 16).
You are either Truthteller or the other obnoxious hd-dvd fanboy that was thrown off of here, which happened just around the time you began posting under this new name. It was the same before, any pro-Sony post or pro-blu-ray post, you're there to light the fire and condem the winning format. Will you drown in your hd-dvd sorrows all of your life? Geeeeeeeeeez
We all understand that you have purchased hd-dvd players and were slapped in the face by Toshiba, we know that guys, but it's a year later now....let it go, let it go, let it go.
Anyway, I've got a movie to watch in 1080p and lossless audio with bd-live features, picture in picture commentary content and a ton of extras, enjoy your compressed movie-only downloads. Later.
MFM, you can invent any arbitrary figures you like (hey it sure beats the actual ones laid in front of you each week) but it won't change reality. Maybe if you screw your eyes real tight and wish with all your heart for blu to fail it might actually do so. Right? HD DVD lost over a year ago, get over it, go shift your content and grow up.
Unfortuinately for you and the rest of the devotees I didn't invent anything.
That 'true 4.45%' sales split number for 2008 was reported here on engadgetHD.
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6627437.html?nid=3511
But of course the selective vision has the fanboy crowd sucking up the weekly disinformation and ignoring the one verified actual stat that gave the true picture.
(a true picture it has to be said that was mightily boosted by a handful of titles doing relatively well - Batman TDK & Iron Man in particular - which has yet to be seen in 2009)
Fail, again.
mntwister
No surprises you can't post links but go ahead, you prove DVD had only 4.45% of the retail movie disc market at 3yrs in.
I won't be holding my breathe.
Fail.
This is your first and final warning.
No one wants your comments here.
You say the same thing over and over again in a childish attempt to bait the other commenters.
If I read one more comment from you that even gets close to the same as this one, I'll ban you. PS we usually don't give warnings.
Ben, do you know what?
I could care less, you're obviously preparing your fig-leaf..
You spent all last year posting up the Nielson 8%, 10%, 12% & 20% nonsense and those few of us that called it for the selective statistical chicanery it so obviously was took all sorts of abuse for saying so
(which you of course were utterly blind to - no warnings there eh?).
(I did not abuse anyone.)
Then EngadgetHD posted the truth up themselves.
Blu-ray in 2008 had a true overall market share of 4.45%.
http://www.engadgethd.com/2009/01/08/blu-ray-moved-63-2-million-units-in-2008/
Now when I post similar perfectly reasonable scepticism about the current Nielson stats you choose to hand out a warning.
Nice.
Since when did a different POV (particularly one based entirely on the facts) become such a threat or awful for people to see?
Have you had complaints?
Go on, admit it, you have. Did you ever wonder about the motivation of those complaining?
I think you'll find that your "No one wants your comments here." a tad extreme - and untrue.
Is free speech and a differing opinion so terrible for you Ben?
We're all about free speech which is why we allow comments on our posts, but no one wants to hear the EXACT same arguments week after week.
If you don't have anything NEW to add, then move on.
Well tell me what the difference is then Ben?
Seriously.
The usual crowd roll in every week to say how 'awesome', 'quick growing' and how 'it'll be up to 50% of sales soon'
and I and a few others say
'hang on, we got told all this last year and it was highly suspicious then & it turned out a lot different when the full numbers came in'.
Does it really come down to you're ok with that kind of exaggerated sycophancy but a more cautious view just annoys you?
@Multi-format-mayhem
Of course total sales will be lower than these charts. Blu-ray has less than a fraction of a % of the title that DVD has. It's going to be a lot higher than 4% though because those back titles are getting filled in.
The thing this chart is meant to do isn't fill in the total picture but to show the trend. The best/easiest way to do that is to show the biggest selling titles. For one the titles are on both formats, unlike say comparing the DVD sales of Lord of the Rings to the Blu-ray sales. And the numbers for the titles are easier to come by, as well as likely more accurate.
Blu-ray isn't competing in a past market so much as the future market. So while you are stuck on 4.5% of total unit sales, Blu will continue to grab growth on new releases, which is where the real money is in the first place.
Don't expect much growth in the way of Library titles. The longer a title goes unpublished in a format the less likely it is ever to be published. Even if DVD dies tomorrow it will always have some titles published that Blu-ray never will, same way VHS still has many titles published that DVD probably never will get. It has also been found that the cost to develop and transfer library titles far out way the amount that the distributor can sell them for, these titles can't be sold for the $35 going SRP on Blu-ray. Why when you can go and buy them on DVD for less than $10 at Wal-mart? Your also blaming number differences on the volume of titles available on DVD vs Blu-ray, but statistics also dictate that the largest portion of the titles make up the smallest portion of the sales, because most of the titles people already own, these are those $10 titles I referred to. The largest portion of the sales come from releases less than 1 year old, and DVD only has a slight advantage over Blu-ray in those title lists.
The early adopters of Bluray are younger men. I really believe that the classics WILL start coming out more often. There are alot of classics fans out there, but the studios are really going to have to do a superb job of remastering these classics for blu-ray, including the soundtracks. There are a ton of classics out there that are of poor quality on dvd. Some seem to be from old scratched prints. There is much room for improvement, and I think that if a person's favorite classics came out in blu, in a stunning new transfer, perhaps from the original negatives, I think a person would upgrade. The only real good transfers of older classics are either in re-issued special editions or films released in the past 3 or 4 years, which is when they seemed to take greater care with what they were releasing.
I believe the classic market for blu-ray to be huge, it is just not the time yet, until blu-ray becomes more mainstream and is purchased by more people. Then there are classics that people will probably be just fine with owning on dvd. But the day will come , I think anyway, when dvd will be gone, just like VHS, and then any new releases of classics will all be blu-ray and by then, the cost of these titles might be in the 14.95 range. These blu-rays are not going to stay at 20-30.00 forever. My opinion only.