Futuresource predicts physical media market will remain flat until 2012
By Steven Kim 
posted Feb 2nd 2009 9:01AM
posted Feb 2nd 2009 9:01AM
As we've seen, Blu-ray does seem to be growing its slice of the packaged media pie, but research firm Futuresource doesn't expect that pie to grow. Instead, Futuresource predicts that growth in the home entertainment arena will come on the backs of, you guessed it -- mobile and online distribution -- while increased Blu-ray revenue will just offset DVD's fade. The usual suspects of Blu-ray's marginal quality benefits and pricing disparity are offered up as reasons that Blu-ray won't increase packaged media consumption overall, but we think there might be something else to the chart. The slow overall growth of media consumption shows we're becoming saturated by existing content delivery (physical discs, online, mobile, VOD, DVRs); or we're seeing the death throes of physical media and the slow initial growth of its successor(s) -- what's your take?
This is awesome. HD-DVD didn't win but neither will Blu-Ray. Thankfully some companies didn't put all their eggs in one basket...cough Sony cough. Personally, I believe the benefit of Blu-Ray over DVD to be negligible at best. Thankfully I invested in an Xbox 360 and thoroughly enjoy my dvd quality Netflix Instant Watch everyday.
Don't get me wrong though I do like 1080p. Though id rather have it on my games than on my movies.
Perhaps you should have invested in a decent TV or a pair of glasses instead.
According to this prediction BD will gradually take over the BD market, which I believe was the primary purpose. So BD didn't win then? A fairly ridicolous comment as far as I am concerned.
Is it really necessary to discuss anything? All of this was very obvious.
Come on fellas, common sense here. The physical media market is saturated. Most of the country already uses DVD, so BD can only cannibalize DVD sales. I don't think anyone was expecting huge growth in DVD sales this year either. That does not make it a failure. Indeed, if this chart turns out to be accurate, BD will have claimed nearly half of DVD's market share by 2012 which would have to be considered a resounding success.
Online and Mobile are newer types of product, so of course they're going to be growth drivers. They're completely new revenue streams.
The market is mature and saturated so I don't see any reason it *should* grow by much.
Everyone already has all the catalog titles they want, or else they are waiting for them to hit the 5$ bin at walmart. Any new titles I buy will be Bluray, but I'm not replacing all my DVD's, only the classics and the ones that really benefit from HD and big sound, like scifi and action flicks. Heck, even new comedies I don't need Bluray for. I rented Ghost Town on BD from netflix. It was good, but I would have enjoyed it just the same on DVD, free streaming, or even on TV. I only really need Bluray for movies that utilize my screen and surround to the fullest.
I agree completely. I buy mostly Blu-rays now but I also only buy ones that will really benefit from the resolution or classics that have received significant restorations (No Country for Old Men, Godfather, Casablanca, etc).
Otherwise I am content to watch my old DVD's or rent both kinds of discs from Netflix. I will even rent the occasional HD movie from Apple TV or stream Netflix when I am feeling impulsive but not that often. Casual, once a month rentals do not a huge industry make.
If I were going to invest in any of this, I'd rather own stock in an industry that is on its way to owning 42% of the market in 2012 rather than one that's only set to get to 12%. Downloads may "win" in the long run but in the next 10 years their a lot of money to be made off that tired old physical media.
"Blu-ray's marginal quality benefits"
You have got to be kidding. You can see a huge difference even on a small 40" TV. If you have a 50 or 60 inch TV then you cant even watch DVD after you watch a few Blu-ray's. That isnt even getting into the much improved sound and functionality.
I (and most EHD readers, I suspect) agree completely; but average consumers are a harder bunch to convince.
I was only stating opinion. That not all BD are created equal. Why do all DVD movies look the same in terms of quality? Yet, when you watch a BD movie some pictures have artifacts on screen and others don't. Many people were disappointed in the quality of picture in The Dark Knight. Yes the audio is good. Nuff said.
I personally believe I have an exceptional TV (Samsung LN-T4669F) and a halfway decent Home Theatre system (Onkyo 7100). Maybe compared to you guys I am an avarage consumer. But with today's economy Id rather spend my hard earned dollars on a technology with a little more consistancy. Plus, do the math, thirty dollars for one movie or 6 movies for 30 at walmart 5 dollar bin
Josh,
Are you a car salesman? You remind me of one I had to deal with and I walked away from when he was comparing the low end bluebook value on my car but different place to show value on his used car.
You are comparing a new movie at barnes an noble that's selling new movies at $30 to the movies in the $5 bin at walmart from the 70's and 80's.
Zack and miri make a porno is $16.99 on dvd at amazon and $23.95 on BD at Amazon. I wouldn't pay that for either but try comparing new to new and at same retailer.
BTW...walmart has som $10 BD movies as well and that list is only going to grow.
"I personally believe I have an exceptional TV (Samsung LN-T4669F)"
Says it all right there.
"You are comparing a new movie at barnes an noble that's selling new movies at $30 to the movies in the $5 bin at walmart from the 70's and 80's. "
This is a common tactic amongst some posters. That plus comparing MSRP on BD's to the cheapest street price on the DVD or some absurd sale price someone found in some dark whole on the internet.
Nobody ever mentions the fact that when you compare the same movies with the same content released on the same day at the same retailer... most BD's are only about 7-9 dollars more than their DVD counterparts.
But that wouldn't be nearly as sensationalistic as claiming that DVD's cost 5 dollars when BD's cost 40 now would it?
Trying to explain HD to somebody is a lot harder without a reference but even average viewers can very, very easily tell the difference between SD and HD if shown them side by side. And wouldn't you know, that's what most do these days. It has the dual benefit for stores, that it shows consumers how awesome an HDTV is and sells them on the concept of buying a BD player at the same time.
1 question, 1 point.
First... Can anyone read this graph, I think I know what its trying to show, but I am not sure??? After reading the aritcle and the graph I'm just confused. Maybe I missed something, but it looks like Blu will take over DVD sales lost sales, with digital media growing at a snails pace???
Now the point. I think all of these polls forget one huge thing. People. I have a friend who buys a DVD a week. HE has a boatload of DVDs and I tell him you've never watched these movies and never will, and are just wasting your money. I think people will buy less media in general because of the Economy, and people including me realizing that buying most of the movies out there are pointless, unless you are going to watch the movie several times.
I have Dark Knight, Iron Man, Hulk and some others on Blu, thats all I want.Their is no way I am going to buy any of the movies that come out next week or the next couple of weeks, because they A are not great movies, and B movies I can watch over and over again.
P.S. I stated this several times, the bad economy is a blessing and a curse. Its bad because people are losing Jobs and money. But great that companies must start bringing their prices lower to keep their businesses a float and I think that will lead Blu to drop prices more and more, and other products. And those of us that are smart and have stable jobs and credit can really get some good things with our money.
At the magical intersection of technological wonderment, sloth, thrift, ROI, and for the most part (and increasingly) a quite acceptable quality, particularly considering the previous distinctions, it can be to no one's objective surprise that physical media goes flat while Netflix, with their essentially "free" warch-it-now downloads, has seen a RIDICULOUS jump in subscriptions, profits, etc.; Hulu and Boxee et. al. are flourishing, blah, blah, blah. For better or for worse, the promise of on-demand content is being fulfilled before our eyes--the cow could't even FIND the barn without GPS. Mark me for death throes...
Didn't read the article?: "Compared to Blu-ray, digital adoption will be a much more gradual process, according to Futuresource"