Analyst: Blu-ray can't stop video sales slump, sees modest growth in 2010
By Richard Lawler 
posted Jun 15th 2009 6:06PM
posted Jun 15th 2009 6:06PM
[Via Financial Times]
posted Jun 15th 2009 6:06PM
Now that we've thrown 'em off the trail, use the form below to get in touch with the people at Engadget. Please fill in all of the required fields because they're required.
VHS brought us home entertainment at a great quality, for the time. Then, DVD gave us improved video and audio quality without any of the "wear and tear" of VHS tapes. Most of us replaced our VHS collection with DVD disc. Now, we're supposed to do the same thing all over again? I can't see myself doing that. With the average LCD HDTV being around 42", the video quality of an upconverted DVD movie looks pretty good. I'm replacing some DVDs, but not with the fervor of that VHS to DVD upgrade. Too many copies of the same movies in different formats is not the best practice.
Also, studios need to realize that it comes a point when the people that are going to buy a particular product already have. So, stop saturating the market every few months with the same stuff if the previous stock hasn't been depleted yet.
Good point! I would like to say that they should include a ipod/dvd version of the main content so you can play it on the go!I don't care about extras on the disc.
Maybe not the best answer, but in those cases, I am more than okay with pirating an HD copy. I've already paid for the movie (sometimes twice), so why not download it? I know, technically still illegal, but... you get my point :)
@nistorica They used to frequently include a DVD version with your high-def purchase for playing on the go and wherever you only have a dvd player.
And then Sony came in and killed it off.
Lower disc costs to customers, and you will see an insane jump in Blu Ray sales.
Media companies don't understand logic. Maybe next decade.
Its called renting? There's some lower disc cost for you.
You hit the nail right on the head. The people own the high def televisions, players are priced at decent prices now, and will be lower for the holidays. But for studios to expect people to pay 22-30.00 (I would say that's the average at Best Buy and Target and Walmart except for sale discs) is not realistic. Not everyone wants to replace their libraries at those prices, and won't. Not when they see a DVD next to it for 9.95 (many of the catalogs)....Studios like Disney, charging 39.95 suggested retail for their 3-disc sets with digital copy and DVD should make available a single disc movie Blu-ray for 10-15.00 less. Notice that many of Disney's titles are not often in the top 20 for long. Then there is Warner Brothers alienating classic fans without a huge wallet by releasing Wizard of Oz and Gone with the Wind in sets only available at 89.95 suggested retail.
The sooner the studios stop this "premium" pricing and get realistic, the format will take off quickly (my opinion of course). I understand that it takes money to make an axcellent high def master for a Blu-ray disc, but certainly in cases like Wizard of Oz, there are many people who are NOT going to buy this set simply because they cannot afford it, and might end up with the 19.95 DVD edition. Big mistake.
It is the studios that need to wake up. And how much is going for the format when there are hundreds of movies as bad as "Disaster Movie" and that sort of crap yet you cannot by the original Indiana Jones, Star Wars, Sound of Music, Ten Commandments, and thousands of other films that are actually good.
I think the hardware supporters of the format have been doing a great job lately, it's the software side that is failing the format.
Blu-Ray would be doing better if:
1- Studios got rid of the HD tax. Instead of offering content at near the same price as DVD, they have taken to charging alot more than the same title on DVD. BD discs should be no more than $5 more on BD list price higher than DVD.
2- More sale pricing, get stores to offer more movies on sale at comparable rates when they are released, ie buy DVD or BD for $19.99
Consumers would buy more BD discs if they didn't feel they are getting squeezed by the studios each time they want to enjoy their movies. Sorry but the days of premium pricing for HD content need to END!! Now that the digital switchover is done, HD is the way. People need to be able to enjoy HD content without paying extra than NTSC content.
When cable, satellite and Home Video companies realize this... consumers will react and treat them well. until then, your going to get alot of people who are mad about paying 20-50% more to enjoy the same content in HD.
IN ORDER TO STOP EARNING LESS MONEY, studios need to properly position BD as a DVD replacement, instead of pricing it like Laserdisc was, a premium product at the time.
@NorthCranky
RENT? well not if you are looking to watch a season of something... that'll set you back $30...
Blu-Ray rentals should not cost any more than DVD rentals. The whole Movie rental business is out of wack with realty... Drop the prices back down to $3-$4 you'll see me in the every week.
It's been months since i was last in one to rent something.
Not a very good return rate if you ask me.
The first thing I do when facing difficult financial times is cut my extra expenses. That means CDs, DVDs, eating out, and unfortunately even my gym membership. Considering the US has been facing economic downturn since 2007 and Canada seeing indications late 2008 is it no wonder that entertainment sales are down?
It's not the price of the disc that they need to lower. Optical discs are cheap compared to other memory storage technologies. It's the content they need to drop the price on. $24.99 CAD for a new release DVD or $32.99 CAD for BD? Too much. For all those out there hoping for alternatives to optical disc will see a much greater jump in price if the distributors need to provide that alternative. So seriously will you continue to pay the going rate for DVD or BD quality video and audio if you have to provide your own storage?
Lower cost on Blu-Ray would make it bettter. They also need to drop prices on players. Make a good player for $100 or less with BD Live 2.0 not just a water down piece of crap.
I am happy with Amazon a lot of good movies for $20 or less. Still new release for $25 is a bit high.
I think player prices are set to go down to a probably $150 if not $99 this holiday season on special sales (special brands). It's the movies that are the problem in my opinion. You can buy a player for 128.00 this week at Walmart for Father's Day yet if you buy 5 movies, it comes to more than the player. Catalog titles should be suggested retail of $19.95 across the board for more mass adoption. This would allow stores to sell them at $14.95. New releases slightly higher. They are doing what they did with laserdisc and look what happened, never went mainstream because people did not want to pay 30-80.00 for a movie, no matter how much better the quality was. Example (as I posted above): Warner's upcoming Wizard of Oz Blu-ray. $89.95 suggested retail and no single disc edition at a lower price, yet there will be a lower priced DVD. Most people who want this movie probably already have one, two or three versions already in their library, how much do the studios expect the public to keep paying to replace their library?
And while we are seeing some good releases on a week by week basis, the number of crappy titles far outweighs the good ones. The studios have thousands of movies in their vaults (maybe tens of thousands), but look at the releases coming up week by week. And even those crappy titles (many rated around 3-5 on the IMDB) are 39.95 suggested retail or $34.95. Blu-ray just isn't going to succeed this way!
Plus, I don't think everyone shops at Amazon, who has done an amazing job lowering prices. But go to Best Buy, Target and Walmart, prices are way up there!
wow going back and looking at that post from December '07 is HILARIOUS!!!!
at any rate I agree with everyone else, they need to lower the cost. Although VERY Few People Realize that List Prices on DVDs is still kind of high. This is where the retailers come in such as Amazon. They can afford to sell them for cheap because they sell more, much like WalMart with DVDs. Very FEW places still sell DVDs at MSRP, the last place I remember was Suncoast and they have vanished. I mean who in their right mind would pay $26 for a DVD there when WalMart had it for $12?
Also another reason why Blueray is not doing so well is simple. Not every american has a flat screen 720p,1080i or 1080p tv so they can't tell the difference and stick to the cheap DVD that looks rather good on their tv set. I mean look at what happen whe we went digital and all this madness happen.
I don't know where you guys are shopping but Blu-ray movie prices can already be found at a pretty low level.
It's not just about disc prices.
People just aren't buying it because for most it's not such a big deal.
Sure the picture's a little better - but as Engadgethd showed a while back most HD TVs are 32" - 42" and 1080i/720p sets so the improvement is going to be even less than it might be for most - but it's not such a leap that people are really wowed.
Similarly the audio improvement means nothing for those without the necessary kit.
It's also slow and clunky and nothing like as user friendly as DVD to operate.
There's also the no-so-small matter that any video format that expects mass-market adoption when it has a need for regular firmware updates to even work properly is seriously compromised before it even begins.
It's also true that HD TV sets themselves are in the minority, everywhere.
It's all far too little far too late.
Blu-ray will be no more than a niche over-taken by events within a few more years.
It is certainly not (and we can see now that it never can be) 'the next DVD'.
Blu-ray's great of you understand and accept that, anyone trying to evangelise it as 'the next DVD' is just deluded or trying to delude others.
I know some don't want to hear it but the truth is the truth and as every month goes by this truth just gets more and more self-evident.
I don't think studios WANT to replace DVD with blu ray, which is why they're not lowering their prices, they want the premium option that they can make more money on, while still having the bargain option to draw in the less discerning customers who want the product, but aren't willing to pay for the HD tax. Studios have a good thing going here, and as much as you or I may want them to push blu ray, it's simply not in their best interests. People like you or I may bitch endlessly about how blu rays are too expensive, and they should be pushing the format, but in the end, you or I are still going to be paying the HD tax, bitching all the while, and the people who don't care about the quality are still going to buy the DVD, whether or not it is comparably priced to the blu ray simply because those are the kinds of people who don't care about quality anyway. So the studios have two choices: decrease their profits to increase adoption of the blu ray format, which will not benefit them in the long run, or keep a two tiered system, where audiophiles like us get the premium product at a higher price and regular people get their shitty product in higher quantities. What call would you make?
If everyone adopts blu ray, the studios aren't going to make sure that the transfers are perfect, because joe 6 pack doesn't care, so we're gonna end up with lackluster blu rays. By keeping the blu ray market the size it is, it is effectively too large for the studios to ignore and lose support of, and too small and packed with nerds to release too many blu rays with shitty video quality and horrible audio tracks.
Hi Nick,
You may have a valid point. Perhaps those with lesser means, or taste, are keeping the DVD alive. Personally I wish the DVD market would just dry up and blow away. When done right I really like HD movies, and streeming 1080p from the net is still a few years off. Between the format wars and the economy I think the average person just cannot commit to Blu Ray.
But whatever the factors involved keeping Blu Ray down. The one thing the movie companies can do is to only release high quality discs every time! Reguardless of the MSRP of the disc, how old the movie is etc. Quit releasing poor transfers and people like me will not be "gun shy" about buying your product. The Warrior's and 2001 are both old movies, yet are two of my favs in HD because the movie studio's involved cared about the transfer! With the exception of CG movies, many/most Blu discs are just "shovelware" so the movie studio can say they support Blu-Ray. Support the format properly or don't support it all!!