
CEDIA 2009 Windows Media Center predictions

Integrating it all together
Before we get into the specifics, lets address the lack of integration in products out of Redmond, and the reasons we believe that is changing. The most obvious is the corporate restructuring that has occurred which has created the new Microsoft TV, Video & Music Business unit (TVM). This new group formed in January includes the teams that work on Media Center and Zune (among others). This is a good step in the right direction to making the Zune and Media Center work hand in hand, but the other clue is based on a leak. We just love it when Amazon leaks release dates, especially because more often then not, the leaked information is true. This time Amazon clued us in to the Zune HD release date of September 8th. On top of the Amazon leak is the fact that the Zune truck contest also ends on September 8th. This date means something to us because this is the first day of CEDIA -- show floor opens on the 9th. Now CEDIA isn't exactly a consumer electronics show, so why would Microsoft release such a consumer centric device at a non-consumer show? We believe it is the same reason why the Zune HD and the new Zune video store was announced at or around E3; because it is going to be directly integrated with Microsoft's other announcements at the show. Of course we don't know exactly what will be integrated, but we'll share our best guess with you below.
PlayReady is the glue that will hold it all together
We hate DRM as much as anyone, but in the complicated world of video rights, DRM is here to stay. So we're at least happy when we see it get more consumer friendly -- yeah that's right, we said it -- and Microsoft's latest DRM, PlayReady, is just that. The single greatest advantage of PlayReady over any other DRM out of Redmond is fact that it finally supports domains. This effectively means it works more like Apple's FairPlay in the way that it allows us to enjoy protected content on multiple devices (that are in the same domain). But that isn't the only reason why we like it, the other big reason is that it seems to be supported by a vast array of devices. This is much different from the past when even two Microsoft technologies like Zune and Media Center used different DRM, which put up walls between them. We don't have a comprehensive list of devices that support PlayReady but just to name a few; Windows 7 Media Center (including CableCARD and DISH Network tuners), Zune HD, Silverlight, Blu-ray's Managed Copy and many DLNA Certified Media Streamers -- and we're told your device can too for about $15k. Now before you get too excited, don't forget that just because it is technically possible for you to play a PlayReady DRM'd CableCARD recording on another computer in your domain, doesn't mean that CableLabs will let you. Ultimately all of these PlayReady features can be enabled or disabled by the content owners and we know all too well how they can be.
New Digital Cable Tuners
This brings us to our first prediction, we believe AMD will announce a replacement for its existing ATI Digital Cable Tuner -- this is above and beyond the fact that we expect a firmware upgrade for the existing tuner. Both the existing and the yet to be announced tuner will now use PlayReady DRM, will support Tuning Adapters to make them SDV compatible, and will not require DRM on all recordings like they do now. The firmware to reduce the DRM on the current tuners was actually announced at CEDIA last year and never materialized, but we've actually seen tuners with the new firmware that have an "SDV" tab -- of course the timing of the release is a total guess based on the timing of CEDIA and the release of Windows 7.

As for the totally new hardware, we believe the big difference will be that the new tuner will take advantage of M-Cards and allow you to record more than one HD show at a time -- and hopefully not cost $300. The evidence that supports this is the fact that the current tuners have been on clearance, including the most telling indicator, Dell.com selling the internal variety for $209. This is particularly interesting because Dell never offered the internal ones on its site until recently. So we take that fact, and the previous announcement of the Ceton multi-stream OCUR, and combine it with an email from AMD checking to make sure we'd be at CEDIA, and we are left with a great feeling that new hardware is on the way. We do not expect much new from Ceton at this show though, as an email from its PR department warned us that the CableLabs certification process might prevent the new tuner from being released this year.
DISH Network Tuner
This prediction is really all but a fact as we have talked to a few beta testers who rave about it. Of course no one knows if Microsoft plans to fully develop and test a tuner with DISH Network only to cancel it at the last minute, but we believe that CEDIA is the perfect place for DISH Network and Microsoft to announce the partnership and the tuner. We're told that unlike CableCARD tuners, VOD and PPV will be available in Media Center and will work as expected. Unfortunately everything the testers recorded was protected by PlayReady DRM and didn't seem to support domains. All the testers have had good things to say about the new HD tuner, and were actually a little disgruntled when DISH asked that the tuners be returned after the beta and wouldn't tell them when the new hardware would be available for purchase, leaving the testers without any HDTV. The tuners were VIP 211 HD STBs loaded with special firmware. We're told that they will only be available directly from DISH and that you won't be able update the firmware on your existing box. You should be able to use four of these tuners at a time if you have enough USB ports. It might also be possible to plug them all into the same network connection on the Media Center, but we weren't able to find any testers who actually tried it. These boxes sell for about $200 each, so it won't be an inexpensive route -- assuming you don't cash in on a promotion -- but the good news is that all the testers we spoke with told us that the tuners worked fine with a DIY HTPC.
The Zune HD
The Amazon leak and the truck contest are the best evidence we have that the Zune HD will be launched at CEDIA, but the fact that it is being launched here is what makes us believe it will be integrated with Media Center. We've heard rumors that you'll be able to stream content from your Media Center via Wifi, but we also believe that syncing content will be easier than ever -- and we even expect content with AC3 audio to work now. The big guess on our part here is that we believe that the Zune HD will be able to function as a Media Center remote -- it just makes perfect sense. We do NOT believe that the Zune will work like an extender or that you'll be able to watch Live TV, but are hopeful that the Zune video store will come to Media Center. This is a really big if, and one we really don't expect to happen, but at the same time haven't ruled it out. We just don't see how Apple could be permitted by the content owners to bring premium content to the Mac, and not allow Microsoft to do it at the same time.
WebGuide and Silverlight

If you haven't tried WebGuide on Windows Vista Media Center, you're missing out. It is such a cool plug-in that Microsoft actually assimilated the developer and he is now a part of the team that develops Media Center. The very same developer, Doug Berrett, actually demoed a Live Mesh version of WebGuide back in November of 2008 at PDC and we've been waiting for it ever since. It makes sense to us that with the release of Windows 7 just around the corner, CEDIA is the perfect time for Microsoft to unveil the ability to schedule recordings remotely via a web browser. The old version of WebGuide could do more than just schedule recordings though, it could stream recordings too, and we think that the latest version of Silverlight might be ready to handle the rest. We'll be honest though, this is just total wishful thinking on our part, and in the back of our mind we feel that the content owners might have a problem with this. Not a big deal though as we already know you can access your Media Center recordings over the internet from another Windows 7 PC by using Windows Media Player, but it would be nice to access our shows from any computer with a SilverLight plug-in instead.
Hauppauge HD PVR driver

Now for the off-the-wall predictions
We'll be honest, this is just for fun. These are some off-the-wall ideas we came up with, they are actually based on facts but we'll admit we're taking some really big leaps here.
The first is a new Extender platform to replace the current one. The big difference here is the new 3rd party extenders will offer the same experience as the Xbox 360 does now, but also add support for Silverlight and Flash. Now we're not so hopeful that we think new hardware could actually be announced, but it is possible that a new platform would be revealed with actual device announcements coming next year.
We know for a fact that the DirecTV tuner (HDPC-20) was basically done, but then the project was mysteriously "suspended." We also know how much DirecTV likes to spin things and it's really anyone's guess to which way things were spun. A pessimist will tell you that "suspend" is just a nice word for canceled, while an optimist will tell you that it is actually suspended, and will eventually be released. One thing is for sure, we weren't able to track down a single person who said they believed it was in testing or that Microsoft had any plans to test it in the next year. The real mystery is DirecTV's motivation to kill this thing since people in the know claim it worked great. So while we wouldn't be totally surprised to learn that DirecTV was planning on announcing it at the same time as the DISH tuner all along -- and just wanted it to be a surprise -- we're not holding our breath.
We don't expect the US to have all the fun, so here's a crazy prediction for the UK. Currently recording premium HD content on the other side of the Atlantic isn't really an option. There is one Sky TV hack that works, but isn't for the faint of heart as it requires constant maintenance. Well the other day we were looking through our old pictures from the eHome tour and noticed something new. Right next to a PC labeled "Draco" is a PC labeled "Horseshoe." Now we weren't able to find any indication of what project horseshoe was, but the same PC had another sticker with DVB-S/T on it. This just happens to be the encoding Sky TV uses. This combined with the recent partnership announcements with Microsoft and Sky has us thinking that this little white box in the picture below is actually a Sky TV HD tuner for Media Center, but we've been wrong before.
The next total pipe dream is support for Managed Copy. Since Microsoft PlayReady is one of the supported DRM technologies that can be used to protect full quality copies of Blu-ray Discs, we'd really love to see Microsoft announce support for Media Center. On one hand we think Microsoft will leave this to 3rd parties the way that it currently does for Blu-ray playback, but at the same time hope that all the necessary tie-ins are already built into Media Center. We are already seeing some of this in Windows 7 with all the updates to Movie Library, but we'd love to see more. So our prediction is that there will be some Managed Copy related announcement from Microsoft or one of its partners.
We just can't believe that Microsoft has been wasting its time with the Internet TV beta for no reason, so we just have to believe that there will be some sort of content announcement surrounding it. This is another area where there are plenty of indicators pointing to a direction Microsoft wants to go, but no real evidence that it's going to happen. With PlayReady working with so many internet based delivery methods and the obvious stop gap that Media Center provides as we all try to access content from various locations on our HDTV, it just makes sense that Microsoft is doing everything in its power to bring more internet content into Media Center. We do NOT expect there to be any Hulu partnership announced though, as we think it is very obvious that Hulu does not want its content on the TV, but other sources like Netflix in the US, and BBC in the UK are easy guesses.
Predictions
- Updated firmware for existing DCT that supports SDV and less DRM
- DISH Network HD Tuner
- Live Mesh WebGuide
- Zune HD -- Wifi streaming and remote control
- New Digital Cable Tuner from ATI
- Official Hauppauge HD PVR driver
- Sky TV HD tuner
- Silverlight Media Center video playback
- Internet TV partners like BBC and Netflix
- Zune video store on Media Center
- Official Blu-ray Managed Copy support in Media Center
- DirecTV Tuner (HDPC-20)
- A new 3rd party Extender for Media Center platform
Conclusion
Even if only half of these come true it will still be an exciting CEDIA for Media Center fans and now is the best time for Microsoft to show it is dedicated to the Media Center platform -- you know with all the concerns in the community that "TV on the PC" is the new direction. Like everyone else, we see that Microsoft is moving in another direction with its marketing, but at the same time we don't believe Microsoft is going to abandon all the great work it has done in this space. In fact we believe that this CEDIA, and the release of Windows 7 a month later, will be the watershed moment in the adoption of Media Center as a whole home media hub solution. Many have been trying it for years, but no one else has tried to take it on from so many angles. And while that shotgun approach has made Microsoft look lost in the past, as everything comes together it will become the strength of the platform. Now there is a good chance that we're way off on all of this, and in that case, we'll be more concerned that the only available solutions are lackluster, than we will be with the fact that we were wrong in thinking that Microsoft could actually pull this thing off.






















I don't think Live Mesh will ever fully replace the need for softsled. In the same home, one Media Center PC should be able to control another Media Center PC's tuners. Also PlayReady should allow 2 Windows Media Center PCs to share DRMed recordings (just like extenders).
While I understand how some people prefer extenders, I think some would prefer a true PC client to handle expanded codec/container support. WMC should be flexible enough to support multiple environments, both those that want PC clients and those that want extenders as clients.
I really want to see those dish network tuners.... I switched to directv solely for the directv/media center tuner that was on the way. Now that it has been canceled I have no loyalty to them and would gladly switch to dish. In fact they might be the better option because I actually would want to subscribe to the turbo hd packages and the savings there would more than offset the initial high price of the tuners.
I would have to make some hard choices though.... a few channels I regularly watch are sd only still so I would have to give those up.
hey ben.... i forgot about this in my initial post. but do you know if the dish tuners will be mpeg4 capable? I know technically wtv can handle it but that was the big rumor to why the directv tuner was suspended was mpeg4 support in media center. that would be a pretty big deal for me as it allows you to store alot more content per gigabyte than currently with mpeg2 (ota/clear qam)
Yes, they are h.264 recordings and will not play on Linksys Extenders, but work fine on the 360 (not sure about the other 3rd party extenders).
Please please please a Sky HD tuner!
Windows media center is basically useless without it in the UK if you ask me as freeview (FTA digital) is pretty rubbish and Sky dominate the pay TV and have exclusive access to most of the big HD Shows (lost, 24, BSG, House...) and then they also have just about all the sport.
I've been waiting for such a product for years, really, YEARS!
Enjoyable post, Ben. In my opinion Microsoft does way too little to reassure the Media Center community about the direction of Media Center and their long range goals.
I agree with David S....Live Mesh would be nice but it isn't a complete solution. A PC client (softsled) is a must...it is so obvious. The only reason I can think of for not doing it is fear of cutting into the extender market. Recent product line cancellations from the likes of Linksys make me think the extender market can be a failure without the competition and won't be severely damaged with it.
I too think it would be a bit bizarre for DirecTV to invest so much money in a product with a measurable demand and then yank it. I'm hoping Dish Network does not let me down.
Lastly, the announcement that would really bring me joy is if there were a CableCard announcement that removes the OEM only requirement and opens the playing field up for more competition for hardware. Nearly a year ago I had several mostly fruitless conversations via e-mail with several executives from CableLabs about this issue. They explained unhelpfully that the requirement was out of their hands. That as strategic business partners they are unable to operate autonomously for make changes to licensing requirements.
I keep hoping this will change and that my obnoxious e-mails had some positive impact.
Buy.com has a countdown to the release of the Zune HD... no secrets from Amazon necessary:
http://www.buy.com/toc/zune/67154.html
As for the extender prediction, have you noticed when you scroll all the way to the right for the Extras crossbar (RTM build, i'm using ultimate), there is a tile that is labeled 'New Extenders'? Of course the link doesn't work right now, but it looks like it is a placeholder for a future update.
Joe
Here's hoping you are right about the new AMD/ATI tuner. $300 for a multi-tuner-capable card, and I am in!
I'm confused on the Windows Media Center front. Is Media Center an option when installing Windows 7, is it extra software that runs on top of Windows 7, or is it a separate distribution of Windows 7?
Media Center is an application that is included with just about every version of Windows 7. It gets installed by default.
Media Center is built into most versions of Windows 7 including Home Premium and Ultimate. Starting the app will start to media center services on the machine, and allow you to configure tuners (if you have them).
To be precise: it's included with the Home Premium, Professional and Ultimate editions of Windows 7.
With Windows Vista it was only included with the Home Premium and Ultimate editions.
Thanks for the info, guys. Sounds like I'll be picking up a Home Premium retail box when Windows 7 comes out. :)
I'm so freakin' excited!! My predictions..
1.) ATI DCT firmware release
2.) Live Mesh Webguide
3.) Dish Tuner announcement - release date given.. Oct 22nd?
4.) More online content partnership announcements
If these come true then i'll be a happy camper!
Great post, I would love some ZUNE HD integration with Media Center. I've never owned a ZUNE because my car has OEM iPod integration but this would be enough for me to ditch the iPod and go line-in for the car.
I'll take a touchscreeen remote that has the same level of gloss as the UI, with TV guide support, and a media extender on an ION equipped nettop thanks. DHL or FedEx, I'm not fussy.
Is it April 1? As much as I hope this is true, I have a hard time believing that Redmond will pull it all together.
If the Zune HD with its Playready support can play my recorded TV from the DCTs (probably requires CableLabs approval *sigh*) then I will buy a Zune HD even though I have a Pre.
Cmon Ceton I want MOCUR for Christmas.
Please please please let the Sky HD receiver be true.. I have been waiting forever for such a product!
My prediction... despite how good a product it is, Media Center will be largely ignored like always.
While I love the optimism here (and absolutely love the software itself), it seems to me that Media Center is on its last legs. Analog TV is on its way out. The broadcast switch has happened, and that complicates things a little bit for MediaCenter, but there are high quality ATSC tuners. The bigger issue is with cable companies. I don't see them wasting their bandwidth on so many analog channels for much longer either (already got a notice that Comcast here is getting rid of a bunch of analog next year), and CableCard is a great solution, but just too much of a hassle for both the customer and the installer. (And I should know, it took 3 visits by installers to get me set up last week). ClearQAM works as a solution for this, but not to get all of the channels.
Unless there's some sort of drop it in, set it and forget it type of replacement for analog tuners on the way that I don't know of, Media Center's biggest asset appears to be falling by the wayside.
Really, I don't get this aversion to IR blasters and gear like the Hauppauge 1212.
This sort of setup didn't kill the Tivo and it shouldn't kill MCE either. What really
hampers MCE is the fact that it's lagging behind the competition on it's own
platform as well as free software.
Until Windows users can buy a CableCard tuner at Frys, Windows is just as much
locked out of HD Cable as Linux or MacOS are. I can get an HD-PVR at Frys, I just
can't use it with MCE.
Do you really envision all that many normal people (aka non-enthusiasts) paying the monthly fee for the cable box, PLUS the cost of the tuners?
all i want is some integrated bluray playback in media center. is it that hard to ask for?? :(
That'd be great if they came out with a cablecard tuner (non-oem), but it would figure... I just finally gave up on Media Center last week & signed a year long contract with comcast. :(
Yea but that contract is for your TV package, not for paying month after month for their craptastic DVR. You can still get cablecards if you so decided, they just charge you like $17 to come install them.
Yep, I just dropped my media center and went with a Tivo HD with a cablecard. RCN cable is dumping all their analog and clear QAM channels next month and a digital box or cablecard is required. My $1k media center PC is now a doorstop.
There doesn't seem to be real support for cablecard PC tuners in the industry right now and the whole OEM only restriction is silly.
That ship has sailed. I turned my media center pc into a home server & am selling my tuners. I love Media Center, but with the limited options with DCT/On-Demand i'm going to keep my DVR separate for now.. Even if ATI cut a deal with Cablelabs & released add-on DCT, then the waiting game becomes "when will it be tru2way"...
Media Center is fantastic, it just doesn't meet my needs right now...for now I will install a virtualized copy on my home server to manage music & videos.
As soon as Dish tuners are available, I'll be a customer. I hate my local cable and would love to change - but I don't want to give up my Media Center.
Did someone say Softsled? Hmm. I wonder...
I breezed past this comment the first time. But this time I noticed the name. Interesting!
Simple request...
MediaRoom/UVerse MediaCenter
Lemme rephrase that...
I'd like MediaRoom/UVerse to share with MediaCenter, and vice versa.
Nice write up....Take that Lanier.....Pow!
just kidding Chris....I value your cynicism (probably because you are usually right).
Great post Ben. Me and the whole My Network Project crew will be down at CEDIA this year. I really hope something happens!
Any chance that windows mobile 6.5 (or possibly 7) will get some of integration features that the ZuneHD is getting? Would seem kind of pointless to have to buy a Zune when your phone is just as capable.
Sky HD please. If you do this sky i put down the cash.
Man... ZuneHD as a remote would be awesome!
If windows can control an IR blaster, it could control my whole setup.
Do you think DISH is preparing this in case they have to turn off their HD DVRs? They could replace them with modest Media Center PCs!!! Plus, if they win, they will always have this tech to fall back on when TiVo strikes again.
Man I hope your joking, if not your Delusional about HTPC's popularity..
Some interesting predictions Ben.
Being in the UK the SKY HD tuner is especially of interest to me. The only way I can see this happening is with a premium cost (the tuner would cost the same or more than a Sky+ HD box and you would still pay a premuim sub for it ) and some sort of DRM similar to how Cable Card works. Otherwise I can't see Sky going for this as they would lose control of their content. Sky+ HD box content is pretty secure AFAIK.
I think the chances of Hulu coming to MC are actually pretty good based on the screen shots over at Chris Lanier's blog.
http://msmvps.com/blogs/chrisl/archive/2009/07/26/1710277.aspx
Ben,
Nice article. I think some of this will be real. My comments:
1. I want to replace my Xbox with another W7 Media Center and share Recorded TV from my main W7 Media Center. Worse case, I have to buy one of the new ATI cards with the OEM system and record the protected TV on both systems.
2. When you talk about sharing media over a domain, does this include a simple workgroup, e.g., WORKGROUP and does it have any relationship with Homegroups?
3. Will the ATI firmware upgrade include the ability to accommodate SDV ala a dongal like TiVo?
1. Yes, that is the idea.
2. I'm talking about home groups, not workgroups, but I have no idea if there is a relationship between homegroups and PlayReady domains. I'm sure it is in the docs.
3. Yes, that is correct.
Homegroup has nothing to do with DRM. ITs just a simple way to share files.
Ben - Hold the phone. Are you saying the idea is to force me to buy a new ATI card to share Recorded TV or are you commenting only on "protected" TV. Speaking of which, what is expected to be "protected?"
You will need a tuner for every PC you want to watch live TV on. If a show is protected, you won't be able to watch it on another PC regardless of if it has a ATI tuner or not. Of course this is still my speculation, as I don't have any inside information on this.
Does anyone know if future builds (or even the RTM build) of WMC in Win7 will support the Zune subscription service? (sort of like Rhapsody on the TiVO or Moxi?). If the Zune store was integrated and I could stream music from my home theatre on-screen, then that's reason enough for me to jump in.
It doesnt.... and that has always been one of my biggest beefs with microsoft. they really should either ditch zune completely and go to wmp or get rid of wmp and start including zune with windows. both have some features the other doesnt and it seems like a huge waste of time to be developing 2 applications that essentially do the same thing.
I would prefer zune taking over myself because it seems to have the most going for it but I would also then expect media center and the xbox extenders to work better with it.
It depends on what you mean by support. You can absolutely play zune subscription music on media center or windows media player or extenders or a roku device or sonos etc. I do now with vista. I believe you can also play the video content but have never tested it myself. You cannot access the zune marketplace through wmp or media center though and download or stream music like you can with the zune marketplace. I have to download the music through the zune client and then access it from media center or extenders/devices. I can download music to my media center from my zune though which is cool. If the zune becomes a media remote then I could download music to my zune and use play to to play in on any of my dlna devices. That would be fantastic.