Blu-ray outpacing DVD adoption, will never reach its penetration
By Ben Drawbaugh 
posted October 6th 2009 4:08PM
posted October 6th 2009 4:08PM
[Via Blu-ray.com]
posted October 6th 2009 4:08PM
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All I care about is the quality. I don't really care how it makes its way into my home.
Right now, Blu-ray offers the highest video AND audio quality for movies and TV shows - so I'm all about Blu-ray. If internet downloads and/or streaming can, one day, offer the same (or better) video AND audio quality, then I'll be all about that!
What I do not like is the possibility of a lower quality source forcing the higher quality source out of the market. It happened with music and it could potentially happen with movies and TV as well!
Im the exact opposite.... I actually prefer the experience over quality. I actually cant wait until netflix streaming completely negates the need for bluray. I actually want to pay them more to get day and date releases for movies and sell everything bluray I own. Bluray has been probably the worst format Ive ever owned (from the experience perspective.... movies not working, constant updates, menu systems that are useless, etc) and netflix streaming (what little they have) has probably been the best ever in terms of the experience.
IMO the added bluray quality only really matters for a small percentage of movies (maybe 5% of all movies) so I have no problem accepting lower perceived quality on a few movies to get a drastically better experience.
I'm with aaron. There is no doubt that blu-ray is the highest quality out there, but HD streaming is good enough for me.
Get a real display...
@ aaron. So watching a movie with blocky video, and bad sound is a better experience then seeing it on BD? Sounds like MFM has a new handle.
Im guessing you are the one who has never spent any serious time with netflix streaming.... because blocking is very rare on most netflix content (and it certainly doesnt bother me knowing the far better experience I get with netflix having thousands of movies at all times and have it updated every week).
You are right aaron, I live outside the US so nextflicks streaming isn't avaliable to me, or about 95% of the worlds population. You also can't DL movies or TV shows from Xbox live or the PSN. Hulu dosen't work outside the US, and the major network sites don't either. VUDU- nope not outside the US. People who can really enjoy streaming vids are located in the 20 biggest centers in the US. DLs and streaming have a long way to go. They are great, and I can't wait till the day I can cut my cable off. More $$ for BD ;).
That last one was from me aaron
Rob, I agree completely. It's said to listen to all these people that are happy whatching just about anything regardless of quality.
Shame on aaron for preferring live streaming.
You don't have to agree with aaron, but "Lowest Ranked" seems like overkill.
I would not say never, digital downloads suck in quality, nothing is better than blu-ray and if my hard drive dies i do notlose everything or need to spend money on backup external drives
No Mark, no memory loss going on here, just giving the facts.
DVD sales at the end of year 3 were indeed 128.6 million - and leapt to 311 million in year 4.
http://www.dvdinformation.com/industryData/index.cfm
EngagetHD brought us the Jan 2009 report showing 2008 Blu-ray sales at 63.2 million
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6627437.html?nid=3511
Are you seriously suggesting that there has been (in this economic climate) a 100% growth in Blu-ray movie sales?
Even the mosty selective and cherry-picked statistical manipulation couldn't get the number higher than 91% growth
( http://www.engadgethd.com/2009/07/16/blu-ray-celebrates-91-percent-sales-increase-for-first-half-of-2/ )
As I already said, with PS3 being there from almost the 1st day, Blu-ray matching DVD is hardly an outstanding performance.
I don't know why some people prefer the rose-tinted PR BS, everyone in the industry can see this and talking Blu-ray up isn't making the slightest difference to that.
They can also see that Blu-ray's improved performance is coming with ever lower margins.
By all means buy into Blu-ray if you wish - I do - but let's not be kiding anyone that this is 'the next DVD', plainly it isn't, as even the title of this thread recognises.
Another paid 'research' group playing with %'s.
The fact is that DVD at the end of its 4th year (which was actually 3.5yrs in) sold 128 million.
That's the actual number.
There's the benchmark and so far Blu-ray (despite the boost PS3 has given it since almost day 1 - which is completely unlike DVD & PS2 which came in late) is well behind that figure.
CEA numbers say otherwise. Ignoring PS2, there were about 14 million DVD players out there (US and Canada). I can't imagine that sales outside of the US/Canada and PS2 amounted to the other 114 million you mentioned.
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html
MFM, your memory appears distinctly faulty.
You're both talking about different things, actually.
Spectre's CEA numbers talk about DVD hardware sales, whereas your cited number of 128 million was for DVD software (movies, tv shows, etc) that were shipped from the manufacturer (not necessarily sold). If you look at your first link, the bottom table are the numbers that Spectre's talking about, and you're using the ones from the top table.
So, yeah, about 14 million DVD players sold and 128 million DVD packaged media shipped from manufacturers sounds about right. Definitely not 128 million DVD players sold, though, which I think was Spectre's point.
Didn't want to see an argument brew up here over a misunderstanding.
Blu-Ray will go away just like the CD. What happened to the music industry is what's going to happen to Hollywood. They just don't see what's coming. Unfortunately, for Hollywood it looks like the are repeating the same mistakes the record execs made. Case in point, is the attempt to ban DVD rentals to Redbox.
65% of the market is "going away"?
They do still sell CD's you know
What a load of BS !
I never understood why either side has to "win." In fact I'd argue that there really aren't "sides" at all. They are different markets that overlap just enough to get the fanboys frothing at the mouth for a fight. DVD sales peacefully coexisted with DVD rentals for the last 12 years. There is no reason to believe that things will be any more polarized this time around either.
Consumers are perfectly capable of renting, via a variety of formats (VOD, streaming, DVD, Blu-ray) and then purchasing the few movies they really care about in the format that works best for them.
I would never buy in anything but Blu-ray right now because I want quality and an autopmatic backup on my shelf. I don;t even bother with DVD's anymore. So if its not available on Blu-ray I'll just rent it until it is. Yet I still crank up my share of Netflix's watch now service and I even rent the occasional movie in HD from Apple TV.
At least we are seeing some admission of digital downloads into our homes. What happened to all those research studies that said Blu-ray will indeed be the new mainstream format.
As aaron pointed out, Blu-ray has been definitely the worst format to exist. It was half baked and it took a while, still has some work left to actaully be a truly nice working format.
I personally don't mind 1080p HDX movies or 1080p instant HD coming from Microsoft. Broadband speeds are increasing at super fast pace. I just got 60mbps DOCSIS 3.0 connection with Cox in AZ and it's like $80.. Cheaper alternatives at $50-$70 are 15-20mbps that are still enough to give you excellent HD downloads/streaming.
Somewhere along the bickering about bit-rates where nobody even mentioned this until Sony and BDA started flaunting it around as some measurement of quality (when in fact you can have HORRIBLE transfers at high bitrates as well) people seem to have forgotten that what counts first is the EXPERIENCE and the content, not whether or not I can see hairs inside the nose of an actor.
Considering that Walmart is drastically lowering the DVD and Blu-ray shelf space, and rentals are becoming more dominant among consumers instead of owning it's not hard to see how this would mean even faster rise of downloads and streaming.
@minimalist
I think that we need to get rid of optical media completely. It's not us vs them at all, it's just that optical discs are pollutant, expensive and ineffective and especially unable to grow as fast as any other technology including digital downloads.. So if it means that I'll have to watch 1080p footage at a slightly lower bitrate that still looks terrific and DD+ sound instead of 50mbps 1080p video and uncompressed audio that only like few percent of people can even experience but limit the technological advancements on account of profits, I'm all for it. Especially if we know we are saving the earth as well.
Oh please drop the green-guilt BS Bozter.
That is just a cheap shot. And of course it goes both ways. After all, you'll be throwing quite a few dead hard drives into landfills over the lifetime of owning those digital movies. They don't last forever. In fact, I've gone through 3 hard drives in the last 2 years alone on my home network. Strangely, I've never had a DVD or Blu-ray "die" on me. Scratches. theft and fire are far less common occurrences than a hard drive dying. And you can recycle discs if its that big of a deal to you. You can twist the fact to support just about any agenda you want.
Feel free to buy all the DRM'd low quality video you want. I'll continue to occasionally rent things in that form for convenience but I have no interest in owning any of that garbage the way its being sold right now.
Just bugger of with your "worst format ever" BS. You just can not get over your defeat and you're a tiresome anit BD troll. Nothing else.
I'm a fan of downloading my content and having it all available in one place (as long as it has surround sound and subtitles of course!). Blu-ray is very nice and I do enjoy buying them, too, but it doesn't (yet) let me download a copy of the disc into my HTPC/PS3/whatever, and that kinda stinks (once you've set up a system to have all your movies available digitally in once place, it's tough to go back).
But now that I read minimalist's post, that does get me thinking. Having packaged media is nice for backup purposes (what if my hard drive crashed? I'd lose all those movies if not for me having the original discs on hand).
That's why I'm interested in Managed Copy. I can buy a Blu-ray, download a copy for my HTPC, then store the disc someplace safe. I hope Managed Copy lives up to expectations.
For some graphs on Blu-ray adoption among Netflix users, see http://feedfliks.com/blu-ray
The way I see it is that Blu Ray is unlikely to match DVD penetration because not everyone has an HD set which sets an upper limit on ownership. On top of that, by the time HD does become the norm, BD is probably going to feel pressure from a proper industry common digital format.
Even so Blu Ray is here now and has no credible competition. Some day that will change but that day is way off. It's not like you would lose your Blu Ray investment even if it did happen since players will be around for decades to come, and of course you can rip the content too if you want.
Ha, you said penetration!
does no one notice the apple logo in the middle of the picture ? i mean do any macs support blu-ray ? -.-
You do realize Apple has been on the board of directors of the Blu-ray Disc Association since 2005, right?
so what they waiting for to add blu-ray support to their devices ? late 2050 ? when it becomes a old standard ?
Look, let's all be fair here. As of right now (2009), Blu-ray stand as a luxury video format... one that offers the highest picture and sound quality possible on the market. It's currently the 'Mercedes Benz' of home entertainment. The way I see it, many will buy into it (as I did and absolutely love it), and others could care less. As long as they continue to release new and old titles on it for the next decade in decent prices, I will be happy. People have to realize that not everyone cares about High-Definition. Again, I am not trying to downsize it, I love HD... I am getting into broadcast TV for crying out loud. But in reality, many Americans could care less and just enjoy watching a film on Standard-Def DVD or "high-quality" streaming. CDs have been around since the 80s and are still available today. I do believe that it will be the same for Blu-ray for at least the 2020s. I do believe that Blu-ray WILL reach 50% market share by 2015, and the other 50% of Americans will be still buying DVDs or purchasing/renting movies through the internet- and couldn't be happier. So... I just don't see the point of bickering at eachother... we all have opinions that have merit. We all like watching movies are own way. If you like Blu-ray (like me) buy Blu-ray and spread the word; if you like digital downloads, buy digital downloads, and if you still like DVDs, buy DVDs. The way I see it, EVERYONE is a WINNER today- how ever we want... who really cares which method is better.. BUT, if Blu-ray climbs above 50% and if (a big IF) it really takes off, all the Nay-sayers need to have an open mind and consider the format in the future.
I love downloading but I think even that will reach a plateau based on consumer storage needs and demands based on not having a physical medium. I learned a long time ago always have a physical copy if the virtual one is damaged or over written. Then you bring in the aspect of increasing hard drive space. We're at terabytes now but how long will that last? Just like a bunch of people you start off with one disc and soon it becomes 100 or more. The same could be said about storage and anyone who has worked with hard drives knows there is a shelf life, imagine backup of several terabytes wiped out because of age. Scary thought considering that right now there are too many intangibles to simply say direct downloading is going to be the successor of digital distribution. Also with concerns with bandwidth throttling it becomes an issue of who will have or not have the means of gaining access to downloading. If anything wait 5-10 years, oddly around the age of DVD before it was replaced, then maybe digital distribution can be a viable means.