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The thing is, in any developing product category, you need to get in early in order to generate the IP necessary for future profitability. The price of gadgets these days is largely determined by the patents you need to license, not the cost of raw materials. Even though the blu-ray specs are mostly complete, there's still a lot of room to innovate in the manufacturing of the drives and in the software codecs.
By not investing in blu-ray now, Toshiba will have a hard time playing catch up if/when blu-ray goes mainstream.