woohoo!

Better odds than the lottery!
Whoohoo Engadget!

DON'T EXPECT the PS3 to drive MOVIE SALES.

1) The PS3 will be in VERY SHORT SUPPLY for a while. 400K units is WAY TOO SMALL to drive any sort of movie sales.
2) The MAJORITY of PS3 owners will be buying GAMES, not MOVIES. That's what history tells us. I FANTASTIC estimate would be that 25% of PS3 owners buy two movies. Unfortately that's a very small number of buyers (considering the price and availability of the PS3).

ALSO: It's ALWAYS down to money! Not number of disc sales, PROFIT from those sales matter more then number of units sold. Higher disc production costs will IMMEDIATELY mean that the "Break-even" point on HD-DVD sales will be smaller than Blue-Ray discs (The number of discs sold, before you recover your initial manufacturing costs).

PRICE MATTERS. For standalone players (not ps3 or xbox's) I expect HD-DVD players to outsell Blu-Ray players. They are cheaper. It's CLEAR what an HD-DVD player is (It's a DVD player) so there is little consumer confusion. Also, HD-DVD "add-on" players sold next to an HDTV will be more common then blue-ray.

If the HD-DVD player costs me $400 extra, fine, but not $700 extra. It's just the way people think.

And PEOPLE don't perceive how many "studios" are available. They only look at the number of "Titles" they spot on the shelf. HD-DVD is ahead of the game there, and BLue-ray needs to catchup fast.

Now if somebody can just put out an affordable combo player (plays both HD-DVD and blue-ray disks) for less than a $1000, expect that the sell like crazy.

Hmm. Not sure about Depp as Sweeny Todd. Depp always seems a little "out of it" in his characters. He is usually a "reactive" character. Even in the Pirates roll, is usually acting as the comic relief rather than the instigator.

I'm not sure Depp can be as ANGRY as Todd needs to be. Todd is an ANGRY man, who cuts people's throats! He curses! He's angry at the world! Not sure that we've seen a murdering Johnny Depp.

I was disappointed with his Willy Wonka remake. It should have been better (the script was weak).

I have no doubts that Carter will make an excellent Lovett. Don't even age her. She has a nice dark side to her that will work well.

But all the best to them. I hope he proves me wrong.

Actually, this is EXACTLY what I expected the drive to come in at:

It's actually a great marketing strategy:

1) MOST gamers still have no HDTVs, so why FORCE them to purchase HD playback (unlike PS3). This way they can BUY the drive when they GET The HDTV, and not before. HDTV owners are still in the minority.
2) The drive is straight simple HD-DVD drive only. The Decoder chip,playback software, etc. are IN THE XBOX 360. The MPEG2/H.264 decoder is just software, running inside a 360. So it's not a full HD-DVD player, it's just a glorified HD-DVD ROM drive. Heck it MIGHT even work in a PC (although it's probably crippled not too)
3) Not Everyone will buy it! It's a great marketing strategy: We are CHEAPER, and we don't require you to buy HD-DVD playback, unless you want it. It's will steal sales from PS3. Sony is taking a HUGE HIT finacially from subsidizing the PS3 hardware, with analysts upset on both ends: 1) The PS3 is going to cost Sony $200-300 loss per player, and 2) It's so damn expensive people are not going to buy it.

Bad Bad for Sony.
Microsoft is executing it's plan well. Their supply problems seem behind them, and the box is building momentum. And they have a better price/value ratio.

Of course, MOST gamers will probably opt for a Wii instead of an HD-DVD drive for the x-mas purchases.

I'll probably get a PS3, but not until there is a game worth playing on it. Based on my history with the PS2, I expect that to take a year.

JUST GUESSING..

but the OTHER PIXAR flicks all used a different mode to generate their DVD's then regular movies. Instead of starting from the film source and "scanning" the features into a digital form, the PIXAR flicks all REGNERATED their movies into a frame-rate and picture frame size that was specific for DVD. They even reblock and "reshoot" scenes for the 4:3 versions of the flicks. They used a "pure" digital source mastered specifically to the DVD video specs. (They basically RE-RENDER the entire movie, tuned to NTSC instead of 24p).

My GUESS is that they want to do that again for hi-def content, and since it's a new format, they may need more time to make sure they are getting the best possible picture for HD-DVD/Blu-Ray media.

Just guessing. Have no inside knowledge of it.

Actually..

Since AVC H.264 is being used by BOTH HD-DVD and Blu-Ray, it would be EASY for most next generation DVD players to add support for reading AVCHD disks. I mean if you are RECORDING stuff in 1080p, then you probably want a true HD player anyways.

I would expect Blu-Ray (e.i. sony) players to support it.

Grr. No Price! No Launch Date!

Sony did it! Why didn't Nintendo!

Grr...

It probably makes sense.

The cameras located all over London were instrumental in the quick capture of recent subway bombers there. I think this alone was a evidence to help dissuade privacy advocates. Should be interesting.

The studio's will start downgrading the Analog signal around the point when cheap HD Analog capture cards appear on the market.

Of course, there are market pressures to PREVENT this from ever happening - since most HD cameras have DV or USB outputs. If the industry can give people HD time shifting, archive and backup then the demand for component HD capture might be so small as to keep the technology effectively off the market.

But SOMEBODY will eventually make responably priced Analog capture cards, and start using them to make cheap HD-DVD/Blu-Ray knock-offs.

it's All about revenue. As long as
$(Revenue Lost because of Downgrading) > $(Revenue lost to people making copies)
they won't downgrade. Eventually that formula will shift the other way, and then expect new discs to start downgrading.