This a pretty careless assumption because scarcity of a product always drives up sales, and it's impossible to say what the ratio is between sales added by the scarcity effect and sales lost due to unavailability.

It's probably not a negative number in this case, but +$1 billion? Yeah right.

HD-DVD more then gives their 'edge' away by the $5 extra you have to pay for 300 on HD-DVD. $34.99 vs. $29.99. When you factor in 99% of people looking at the ads will just think HD-DVD costs more for the same thing, this doesn't help the HD-DVD camp as much as it hurts it.

Even if a PS3 isn't being used as a Bluray movie player now, it's certainly a purchase that makes buying a HD-DVD player later a pointless and unlikely act. I think it's fair to say that people that own PS3's are people that HD-DVD will not be selling much if anything to.

I've actually noticed a shift in the last couple months at local Best Buys from a 50/50 split in shelf space for HD movies to a 75/25 split in favor of Bluray.

I can fully understand someone not wanting to pay $599 for a console, what I don't understand is why people arn't calling Microsoft on the fact that their $399 console is an incomplete system. No wireless, no support for HD Movies, no HDMI, smaller HD, etc. If you add wireless, HD-DVD, and an extra HD to a 360 you are going to end up at a price much higher then $599. The core system and the HD-DVD drive alone will probably get you to $599. Not to mention that Microsoft doesn't let you play online for free where Sony apparently will. Sony could have easily taken features out and found their way to $399, only to accessorize you to death, I'm glad they didnt.