I draw a watch on my wrist with a Sharpie pen.

None of the above! :)

And...what about Cisco? They have a history of building their technology portfolio through acquisition, and having bought Linksys and Scientific Atlanta recently, have shown they're willing to invest heavily in the consumer mass market.

Nope. Don't really need it.

Dinosaur Planet! (at least so says my 3-year old...)

Nice job dividing 18 million and 12 months into the $18B. However your calculator misses a bunch of other key assumptions that completely negate your conclusions. Look at the Light Reading material and the rest of it out there, and you'll find that it's not as simple & clear as you make it out to be.

I spent about $1500 on my home-built HTPC that seems similar in functionality. No cablecard but I rip HD streams directly from the STB. I can expand it, update it, and do some nifty DVD archiving & postprocessing with it. Oh, and no subscription fees (other than the premium I pay for the full STB over a cablecard, but with it I get 2-way services, so....).

I also have a Tivo that I've paid a $99/year subscription on for the past 6-7 years (I'm on my 2nd box). As much as I love the UI and the features, the value has diminished to the point where for a user like me (pretty advanced), the subscription fees alone are a deal-killer when my current year expires.

As for the new hardware, it's not worth it at $400, let alone $800. Most of what I feel like I'm missing is recording of HD-HBO/SHO/etc., but I've got plenty of recorded content and I can watch that stuff live anyway.

I ordered a 50" Panasonic plasma from Amazon a few days ago, and used the new call center. They picked up after only a couple rings, and were completely helpful. I didn't ask for much more than delivery & return questions, but it was clear the guy knew what he was talking about. The click-to-call service took about 1 second to ring my phone. Overall a good experience.

The main risk I see in ordering something like this through a channel like Amazon is that there's no returns. You have to unpack the display while the driver is still there and inspect it for damage. Once you sign, it's yours and you only have warranty service. Nonetheless their pricing is pretty aggressive, the delivery charges were waived, and I'm not paying sales tax (through them, anyway...I still "owe" it).