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Maybe I didn't understand this right (correct me if wrong) but when Ben asked about a response from the HD format camps to Muslix64's AACS bypass efforts, Kevin indicated that the software keys were renewable and thus known violating player keys could easily be revoked.

It isn't that hard for hackers to get a vendor's software media player to be keyless, or in some cases at least function without being key authentication dependant. If an HD software player gets taken off the key security radar (no key to detect, esp. if player is kept from 'phone(ing) home') but it still can function as a decrypter tool, the cat is still out of the bag.

If for AACS to remain secure all software or device environments must also be AS secure (which of course they are not), wouldn't that be confirmation that the device or player software would be the weakest link in the AACS implementation strategy?

Thanks.

First will come the combo players, then price will dictate which format becomes adopted by the studios. Overhead on BR is much higher than HD-DVD so my money is that HD-DVD will NOT DIE. I won't say who 'wins' the war but I guarantee HD-DVD will live long and prosper :).

The first hint I think we'll see if HD-DVD is threatened at all will be a price drop in software. BR's licensing overhead and mfg costs will at the very least keep it from killing HD-DVD altogether. Personally, I think the war will be won on the cost front, not on the support front so my $ is on HD-DVD.

Yet another way to contribute to Sony's bottom line by baiting the unwitting public.

$0.02

If I recall, Sony's first combo DVD+R/-R media burner retailed at around $400 while non-combo burners were around half that. This HD offering price is consistent in relation to single format players in my opinion.

Also, even though it will probably never be revealed, I'd like to know how much (% wise) of the price of this unit is going to Sony and it's family of supporters for BR licensing, vs. how much is going to the HD-DVD camp for licensing. I'd dare speculate it's at least $2-$1 to the BR camp.

Since HD-DVD (in my opinion) is the underdog format as far as the CE/Media industry is concerned, a dual format burner is more likely to benefit HD-DVD more than BR because it will cement it's existence as a format, not as necessarily a WINNER in the war, but at the very least, a persistent alternative format. I'm not saying this player in particular will do the trick for HD-DVD but in general a well performing combo player will. If HD-DVD doesn't die, there is no way BR and it's consortium can compete with that format in terms of costs of production.

This is not good news for the BR camp.

"Mainly due to the expensive chipset/software"

I personally think this should have read
"Mainly due to Blue-Ray licensing costs"

IMO, Sony's BR has more to lose than the HD-DVD camp with the arrival of a combo player (most corporate/media interest), so why not 'stick it' to anyone supporting a combo player in the form of mandating the highest licensing costs possible. Just my theory.

Oh, and when they issue the update I hope they don't forget to include the latest player/device blacklist code, we wouldn't want Decent's best boy grip not to get paid.

1. Vista (even if weakly adopted) will drive hardware sales for the first 8 months. Possible sector investment.

2. BR and HD-DVD get into media price war late in the year, BR loses because of mfg. and licensing costs.

3. AACS gets cracked (confirmed crack that is). App similar to DVD Decryptor comes out with nicer GUI. Spurs HD-DVD sales. Per-movie decryption keys start flying.

4. Combo player kills HD format war - probably in Dec '07.

5. Apple OS catches a virus (oh noooooo!)

6. Laser DLP makes debut Nov. '07

It never ceases to amaze me how often people fail to plan their first 20 years of life in preparation for the next 50.

In a country where most young people have the ability to join any of the armed forces (try the Navy or AF for those who are afraid of being on the ground in Iraq) and then have their post-4 yr term higher ed paid for, I have little sympathy.

It's what I did (BS degree) with absolutely no help from my parents and if I get laid off tomorrow (knock on wood) oh well, my post-HS ed. credentials are still marketable in the modern economy. Yea, it would be tough but am I going to be compelled to spend my post-layoff time begging for my job back or finding another.

Also, what if I'm realistically overpaid relative to comparable jobs in the industry, am I saving my pennies for that rainy day if/when my good fortune runs out or am I up to my pits in debt and living on the edge of my means. If I get laid off then who do I blame.